global article

Technology Approach

2009-03-30T21:23:00.000-07:00

213
Technology Approach: DoD Versus Boeing
TECHNOLOGY APPROACH:
DoD VERSUS BOEING
(A COMPARATIVE STUDY)
A. Lee Battershell
This is an analysis of different approaches in the use of technology by Boeing
and DoD to determine how they may have affected development time for the
C-17 and the Boeing 777. Boeing’s focus on cost, schedule, performance,
and market competition is contrasted to DoD’s focus on performance. The
paper concludes that the mere existence of a technology should not obscure
(a) the impact its maturity may have on program cost and risk, (b) whether it
will meet a real need of the user as opposed to a gold plated one, and (c)
whether the added development time it may require could pose unanticipated
problems for the customer, or even result in fielding an obsolete weapons
systems.
hat are the differences in the way
private industry and Government
approach technology when developing
planes? Why does the Government
take longer than the private sector to develop
a plane?
There’s a perception that high technology
included in military planes contributes
significantly to the typical 11 to 21 years
(DiMascio, 1993) it takes the Department
of Defense (DoD) to develop, produce, and
deploy new military aircraft. To learn if it is
the technology that takes so long, this study
explores the way Boeing and DoD approached
technology in developing the
Boeing 777 and the military C-17. One reason
for selecting the C-17 is that it does not
have the complex weapons systems inher-
The advantage we had in Desert
Storm had three major components.
We had an advantage in people, an
advantage in readiness, and an advantage
in technology... We need to
preserve that part of the industrial
base which will give us a technological
advantage... (William Perry, Secretary
of Defense) (Mercer and
Roop, 1994).
...technology must earn its way on to
a Boeing [commercial] plane... In
short, our R&D efforts will continue
to be customer-driven, not technology-
driven (Philip Condit, Boeing
president, 1994).
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Acquisition Review Quarterly – Summer 1995
ent in fighters or bombers, and yet it still
took more than 14 years to develop and
deliver. In contrast, it took little more than
four years to develop and deliver an operational
Boeing 777.
WHAT IS TECHNOLOGY?
According to Webster’s Dictionary, technology
is defined as “...an applied science
that includes the study of industrial arts one
can apply toward practical use” (Guralnik,
1980). Technology is a method or process
for handling a specific technical problem.
By contrast, natural science is: ...the study
of knowledge to understand the nature of
the subject matter which is being studied.
Its purpose is for the sake of understanding—
the application or usefulness may not
be self evident at that time. Technology is
the application of scientific breakthroughs
(Goldberg, 1995). When one speaks of a
technology breakthrough, one is defining a
new process or method for application of a
scientific breakthrough.
NEED FOR CHANGE
The Department of Defense is coping
with reduced resources and a changing
world. At home, the American public continues
to demand that its government become
more efficient, prompting Vice President
Al Gore to initiate a National Performance
Review to: “...make the entire federal
government both less expensive and
more efficient, and to change the culture
of our national bureaucracy away from complacency
and entitlement toward initiative
and empowerment...” (Gore, 1993).
The late Secretary of Defense Les Aspin
directed a “Bottom-Up Review” of DoD to
identify cost savings and improve efficiency
and effectiveness. In his final report Aspin
said: “We must restructure our acquisition
system to compensate for the decline in
available resources for defense investment
and to exploit technological advances in the
commercial sector of our economy more
effectively...”(Aspin, 1993).
Studies of DoD acquisition over the past
25 years reveal that (a) DoD’s way of doing
business resulted in programs that spanned
11 to 21 years (DiMascio, 1993), and that
(b) by the time the weapon systems were
finally delivered the technology was outdated.
Significantly, the lengthy time to develop
weapon systems was also directly
linked to a doubling of the costs originally
planned (Gansler, 1989). Based on this past
performance one might expect higher costs
in the future. Unfortunately, the ongoing
process of federal deficit reduction rules out
increased military spending. DoD must
learn not only to maintain the technological
superiority of the American military, but
learn to do so in less time and at less cost.
Assumptions
Jacques Gansler warned against DoD’s
continuing preoccupation with technology
without consideration of cost. Substitute
schedule for cost, and one could say the
same is true for time. As Gansler writes:
Ms. Battershell is a Research Fellow at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF)
in Washington, D.C. Prior to her work at ICAF, she was Director, Pentagon Liaison Office,
Air Force Audit Agency. She holds a Master of Science in National Resource Strategy and
a certificate from the Senior Acquisition Course, Defense Acquisition University. She is a
Certified Acquisition Professional Program Manager and a Certified Acquisition Professional
Financial Management Comptroller.
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Technology Approach: DoD Versus Boeing
Until the DoD introduces affordability
[and schedule] constraints
into its requirements process and
shifts from a design-to-performance
approach to more of a design-to-cost
[and design-to-schedule] approach,
it will procure fewer and fewer
weapon systems each year, and eventually
the United States will not have
enough modern systems to present
a credible defense posture (Gansler,
1989). [parenthetical material added
to original]
It should not take 21 years to develop
and deliver a weapon system nor should
advanced technology cost as much as it
does. Gansler points out that performance
has improved in commercial as well as the
defense industry because of technology,
“...however, in the defense world costs have
risen along with performance.” Comparatively,
“...commercial computers, televisions,
and other items that use similar technology
have improved dramatically in performance
and gone down dramatically in
price,” (Gansler, 1989) and don’t take as
long to produce.
Methodology
This paper is a comparative analysis of
the way Boeing and DoD used technology.
The problem was to determine whether a
difference in DoD’s approach to technology
contributed to the length of time it took
to develop the C-17. This study is based on
written works (published and unpublished),
interviews, and observances.
Research for this report was primarily
focused on the DoD C-17 and the Boeing
777. It included an extensive review of literature
and interviews. The literature review
encompassed studies, laws, standards,
and articles relating to various approaches
to technology, their focuses and parameters.
The interviews were conducted with individuals
who were or had been involved with
the Boeing 777 or the Office of Secretary
of Defense (OSD). Additional conversations
with senior leaders at Boeing, the Air
Force, and DoD revealed their approaches
to technology use and their perceptions.
THE BOEING APPROACH
The 777 causes me to sit bolt upright
in bed periodically. It’s a hell of a
gamble. There’s a big risk in doing
things totally different. (Dean
Thornton, President, Boeing Commercial
Airplane Group, 1992)
(Main, 1992)
Boeing professed a belief that one
must approach technology with an
eye toward utility...it must earn its
way on... (Condit, 1994)
Boeing’s conservative approach was illustrated
in the 1970s and 1980s when it
decided not to include in its 767 more advanced
systems such as fly-by-wire, fly-bylight,
flat panel video displays, and advanced
propulsion systems (Holtby, 1986). Even
though the technology existed, Boeing did
not believe it was mature enough for the
767. Boeing also used what Gansler defines
as a design-to-cost constraint. After Boeing
defines a program it evaluates cost before
going into production. Its cost evaluations
include trade offs of performance, technology,
and manufacturing investments
(Boeing undated).
In the 1990s Boeing included in its 777
(a) fly-by-wire, (b) advanced liquid-crystal
flat-panel displays, (c) the company’s own
patented two-way digital data bus (ARINC
629), (d) a new wing the company advertised
as the most aerodynamically efficient
airfoil developed for subsonic commercial
aviation, (e) the largest and most powerful
engines ever used on a commercial airliner,
(f) nine percent composite materials in the
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Acquisition Review Quarterly – Summer 1995
airframe, and (g) an advanced composite
empennage (Mulally, 1994). Boeing also
invested in new facilities to test the 777 avionics
(Proctor, 1994), and to manufacture
the composite empennage (Benson, 1995).
Did Boeing push the technology envelope
for the 777? Philip Condit, Boeing president,
said those were technology improvements,
not technology breakthroughs. He
used fly-by-wire technology to illustrate:
Fly-by-wire is interesting and you can
isolate it. But if you step back, our
autopilots are fly-by-wire and always
have been. We’ve given it a little bit
more authority [in the 777]. The 737
right from the start had what we
called a stick steering mode in which
you moved the control wheel to
make inputs to the auto pilot. Flyby-
wire. The 757 Pratt Whitney engine
was completely electronically
controlled... it makes neat writing,
but it’s not an order of magnitude
change. Designing the airplane with
no mock-up and doing it all on computer
was an order of magnitude
change (Condit, 1994).
One only has to review the history of airplane
technology during the 1980s to see
that Condit is right. Airbus and McDonnell
Douglas included fly-by-wire on the A340
(Nelson, 1994) and the C-17, respectively,
during the 1980s, and both experienced
problems. Boeing was able to learn from the
mistakes of Airbus and McDonnell Douglas
(Woolsey, 1994), and it had the advantage
of using new high-powered ultrafast
computer chips that increased throughput.
In fact Honeywell, the company that
McDonnell Douglas dismissed because it
couldn’t produce the fly-by-wire fast enough
for the C-17, was the company that successfully
installed it on the 777 (Woolsey,
1994)—but not without problems.
Boeing could not assemble and integrate
the fly-by-wire system until it solved problems
with the ARINC 693 databus, the
AIMS-driven Flight Management System,
and the software coding. Solving these problems
took more than a year longer than
Boeing anticipated. In order to maintain its
schedule, Boeing did as much as it could
without the complete system, then it used
red-label1 systems during flight tests. Finally,
the Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) certified the last link, the primary
flight computer, in March, 1995. In April,
1995 the FAA certified the 777 as safe
(Acohido, 1995).
Technical Problems
While Boeing may not define its 777 avionics
problems as pushing the technology
envelope, Boeing did push the envelope on
its design and manufacturing process, and
its propulsion. As Condit said, “Designing
the airplane with no mock-up and doing it
all on computer was an order of magnitude
change.” When one is the first to use a technology
in a new way, one can expect problems.
Assuming that Boeing is conservative
in its approach, one must ask why Boeing
went from computer design to build with
no mock-up, and why it used new, large,
high-performance engines.
Computer and Aircraft Design
CATIA (Computer assisted three-dimensional
interactive application) is the
computer application that Boeing used to
design the 777 and improve its manufacturing
process (Benson, 1994). Jeremy Main
best described the reasons Boeing changed
1 A red-label system signifies that the system is still in the development and testing phase. A black-label
system signifies that hardware and software are finished and ready for production.
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Technology Approach: DoD Versus Boeing
its way of design and manufacture using
CATIA in his article, Betting on the 21st Century
Jet.
...as a designer, Boeing is preeminent...
I have great respect for them,
but they have a long way to go in
manufacturing. Therefore, to stay on
top, Boeing must find ways of building
planes better. If Boeing’s new
approach to design works, the 777
will be an efficient, economic plane
with a lot fewer bugs than new planes
usually have. As a result, Boeing
could save the millions it usually
spends fixing design problems during
production and after the plane
has been delivered to the airlines
(Main, 1992).
Boeing’s decision to use CATIA in conjunction
with a team concept emerged primarily
as a means of cutting costs after
analysis revealed that the predominant cost
drivers were rework on the factory floor and
down-stream changes. The teams that
Boeing calls design/build teams include representatives
from nearly every Boeing function
involved in producing the transport,
plus customers and suppliers (O’Lone,
1991).
Typically, engineers were still designing
when manufacturing began, and they kept
making changes as problems subsequently
came to light on the factory floor, on the
flight line, and even in the customer’s hands
after the plane was delivered. For example,
when Boeing delivered the 747-400 to
United in 1990, it had to assign 300 engineers
to get rid of bugs that it hadn’t spotted
earlier (Main, 1992). United was not
happy with Boeing’s late delivery of the 747,
nor with the additional costs the airline sustained
in rescheduling flights and compensating
unhappy customers as a result of
maintenance delays. Boeing was deeply
embarrassed by delivery delays and initial
service problems of its 747 (Proctor, 1994).
After a lot of research and deliberation, the
company decided to use computer aided
technology more extensively and change its
design and manufacturing approach in order
to improve its service. Yet, even though
CATIA and the team approach eventually
proved worthwhile, there were problems.
Boeing encountered problems in adjusting
to 100 percent computer-aided aircraft
design. Not only was this a technology
change, it was a cultural change. Condit said
engineers were reluctant to let others see
their drawings before they were 100 percent
complete (Condit, 1994). Ronald A.
Ostrowski, Director of Engineering for the
777 Division, said one of the initial challenges
was to:
...convert people’s thinking from 2-
D to 3-D. It took more time than we
thought it would. I came from a paper
world and now, I am managing a
digital program (Woolsey, 1994).
The software also had problems and development
costs ballooned slightly over
budget because of CATIA. Boeing CEO
Frank Shrontz said “It was not as user
friendly as we originally thought” (Woolsey,
1994).
CATIA and design/build teams were new
methods for applying technology that
pushed the envelope and could have impacted
Boeing’s delivery schedule. Instead
of allowing a possible schedule slip and late
delivery to its United customer, Boeing decided
to apply more resources, spend the
extra money, overcome its problems, and
deliver its 777 on schedule. While Boeing
did not state how much it spent, in April
1992 Fortune analysts identified $3 billion
(Main, 1992) set aside for research and development
(R&D) for the 777. In April
1994, an editorial in Aviation Week and
Space Technology estimated that final R&D
costs for the 777 approached $5.5 billion
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Acquisition Review Quarterly – Summer 1995
(AW&ST, 1994). Based on the analysts
evaluations one could conclude that actual
R&D costs were approximately $2 billion
over planned costs. But, as Alan Mulally,
the Senior Vice President for Airplane Development
and Definition said:
In our business it’s very rare that you
can move the end point... When you
make a commitment like we made
they [United] lay out their plans for
a whole fleet of airplanes so it’s a big
deal. They’ll have plans to retire old
airplanes. We could have stretched
it out but it just seemed best to us to
keep the end date the same and add
some more resources (Mulally,
1994).
The wisdom of Mulally’s decision was
proven a thousand times over. The wing
assembly tool built by Giddings & Lewis in
Janesville, Wisconsin, and the world’s largest
C-frame riveting system built by Brotje
Automation of Germany, were both run in
Seattle on programs generated by the
CATIA (Benson, 1995). Engineers designed
parts and tools digitally on CATIA to verify
assembly fit. In Kansas, Boeing’s Wichita
Division built the lower lob, or belly, of the
777s nose section using CATIA and digital
preassembly. In Japan the skins of the airframe
were built using CATIA generated
programs. Workers at all plants marveled
at the way all the parts built by different
people all over the world fit together with
almost no need for rework (Benson, 1995).
Charlie Houser, product line manager at
Wichita, said it best:
CATIA and digital preassembly let
us find areas of potential interference
before we started production.
The individual assemblies fit together
extremely well, especially the
passenger floor. That assembly includes
composite floor beams, and
it went together smoother than any
floor grid of any size that we’ve ever
built in Wichita (Benson, 1995).
Engines
Three top companies will supply engines
for the Boeing 777: Pratt & Whitney, General
Electric, and Rolls Royce. The aircraft
was designed for two engines that are
billed as:
...the largest and most powerful ever
built, with the girth of a 737’s fuselage
and a thrust, or propulsive
power, of between 71,000 and 85,000
pounds compared with about 57,000
pounds of the latest 747 engine. Key
factors in this performance are new,
larger-diameter fans with wide-chord
fan blade designs and by-pass ratios
ranging from 6-to-1 to as high as 9-
to-1. The typical by-pass ratio for
today’s wide-body jet engines is 5-to-
1. Pratt & Whitney is furnishing the
PW4000 series of engines, General
Electric is offering the GE90 series
and Rolls-Royce is offering the Trent
800 series of engines (Donoghue,
1994).
Boeing’s success at getting these three
companies to produce engines never before
produced represent a dramatic change from
the time when the federal government was
the leader in technology. For example in the
1960s General Electric didn’t want to risk
the cost and time to develop a high-bypass
jet engine for the 747. General Electric was
content to let a military development program,
the C-5A, absorb the cost and time
associated with enhancing high-bypass jet
engine technology (Newhouse, 1982). For
the 777 Boeing not only pushed for new,
more powerful engines, it also pushed for
early approval from the Federal Aviation
Administration for the plane to fly over
oceans (called ETOPS: extended-range
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Technology Approach: DoD Versus Boeing
twin-engine operations) (Mintz, 1995).
Normally, the FAA first certifies a twinengine
plane for flights of not more than
one hour from an airport, then two hours,
and finally, after a couple year’s service, a
full three hours so the plane could fly anywhere
in the world. The 767, powered by
Pratt & Whitney JT9D-7R4D/E turbofan
engines, became the first Boeing twin to win
120-minute approval in May, 1985, but not
until after it had flown for two years
(Woolsey, 1991). Jerry Zanatta, Director,
777 Flight Test Engineering, pointed out
that engines are so reliable today an airplane
could travel on only one engine.
Flying with two engines allows redundancy
that a pilot wants in order to ensure safety
of flight. Flying with more than two engines
only increases fuel cost and operating costs
unnecessarily. (Zanatta, 1994)
Why did Boeing push propulsion technology?
The answer is competition.
Boeing’s customer airlines are concerned
about operating costs and a two-engine
plane costs much less to operate than a
three- or four-engine plane. Boeing’s competition,
Airbus, has a twin-engine plane
(A330) (Duffy, 1994) that competes favorably
with the 777. If Boeing can’t deliver,
the Airbus can. Still, producing a new engine
was not without its problems. For example
the Pratt and Whitney engine had
performed perfectly in the testing laboratory;
but on its first test flight in November,
1993, it backfired several times.
The engine backfired because of differences
in the rates of thermal expansion between
the interior components of the engine
and the compressor case. The case
expanded faster than actively cooled interior
engine components creating a
space between the blades and the case.
After the first flight, engineers changed
the software commands that direct the
variable blade angle of the first four compressor
stages to reduce the temperature
of the air inside. On the next flight the engine
worked perfectly (Kandebo, 1993).
Summary of the Boeing Experience
Boeing looked at its investment in the
777 and its manufacturing process from a
tactical and strategic view. It was committed
to a successful 777 that would serve its
customers and protect its market share
against competition for 50 years into the
future. Boeing was also committed to
changing and improving its manufacturing
process using the power of computers so it
could improve quality and cut costs well into
the 21st century. As a result Boeing management
and its Board of Directors were
focused on what they had to do to make it
all happen. They were willing to commit
Boeing resources toward overcoming potential
challenges that included computer
and process technology.
When Boeing underestimated the challenge
of the design-build concept using
CATIA, it could have stretched the schedule
to spread additional costs over a longer
time period. But that would have meant
missing the delivery date to United for the
first 777. Boeing management made a conscious
decision to continue and learn on its
first block of 777s so that all future aircraft
could benefit.
We could have stretched it out, but
it just seemed best to us to keep the
end date the same and add some
more resources (Mulally 1994).
THE DOD APPROACH TO TECHNOLOGY
Technology on the C-17 was not as
well defined as some would have us
believe (Brig.Gen. Ron Kadish,
1994).
I was shocked in the Fall of 1992 to
discover that this airplane was being
produced from paper, that they did
not have a CAD/CAM system. That
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Acquisition Review Quarterly – Summer 1995
they had never had a CAD/CAM
system (Gen. Ronald Fogleman,
1995).
Secretary of Defense Harold Brown justified
using a fixed-price incentive contract
to produce the C-17 for two reasons: (a)
Congress and President Carter wanted to
eliminate cost-plus contracts in order to
reduce excessive overruns (Hopkins, 1993),
and (b) all the technology for the C-17 was
already proven. The Advanced Medium
STOL Transport (AMST) prototypes
proved short-field take off and landing
(STOL) could work and all hardware and
software was off-the-shelf (Smith, 1993).
The Air Force request for proposal stated
that “...Undue complexity or technical risk
will be regarded as poor design...” (Johnson,
1986). After McDonnell Douglas won the
competition, this theme was carried over
into the C-17 technical planning guide:
The C-17’s systems are straightforward
in design, are highly reliable,
and represent current technology.
For example, a version of the C-17’s
engine has been proven in commercial
airline service since 1985. Newtechnology
systems, like the onboard
inert gas generating system
(OBIGGS), are used only where they
offer significant advantages over previous
methods....Avionics and flight
controls that include computer-controlled
multifunction displays and
head-up displays enable the aircraft
to be flown and all its missions accomplished
with a flight crew of only
two pilots and one loadmaster
(McDonnell Douglas, 1993).
However, the C-17 experience revealed
what studies conducted during the AMST
had proven and Kadish had pointed out—
”the technology was not as well defined as
some would lead us to believe.” Although
McDonnell Douglas did not develop new
technologies for the C-17, the way in which
the technologies were used was new. The
C-17 was a new cargo airlifter dependent
on a complex integrated avionics system to
reduce the aircrew size to two pilots and a
cargo loadmaster. By comparison the C-141
and the C-5 use two pilots, a navigator for
tactical and airdrop missions (C-141 only),
two flight engineers, and two cargo loadmasters
when carrying passengers (Moen
and Lossi, 1995). Also, using STOL capability
on a plane expected to fly 2,400 nautical
miles (NM) with a 172,200-pound payload
to include outsized cargo was much different
than using STOL on a plane expected
to fly a 400-mile radius with a 27,000-pound
payload. The plane would require a new
wing and, as John Newhouse points out in
his book, The Sporty Game, “...there is more
technology in the wing than in any other part
of an airframe...production schedules are
keyed to wings” (Newhouse, 1982). The differences
in design between a tactical STOL
and a strategic STOL were the catalysts that
caused schedule slips and cost money.
Advanced Medium STOL Transport
The AMST was the genesis for the C-17.
In 1971 the Air Force contracted both
Boeing and McDonnell Douglas to build a
prototype that, in the words of Gen.
Carlton, was “really a miniature C-5”
(Kennedy, undated) to transport cargo intheater.
The plane was to fly a 400 NM
radius mission, carry 27,000 pounds, and
land on short runways using short landing
and take-off (STOL) technology.
McDonnell Douglas’ YC-15 and Boeing’s
YC-14 prototypes successfully demonstrated
powered lift technology in 1975
that met mission requirements (Kennedy,
undated). In March, 1976, the Air Force
Chief of Staff Gen. David C. Jones asked
Air Force Systems Command to see if it was
possible to use a single model of the AMST
for both strategic and tactical airlift roles,
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Technology Approach: DoD Versus Boeing
and if it was possible to develop non-STOL
derivatives of the AMST prototype to meet
strategic airlift missions (Jones, 1976). It appears
that this strategic study originated
with a note from the Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, Gen. George S. Brown, that
asked “Is it practical to have an AMST with
a slightly higher box pick up much of the C-
5 outsized load for Europe—with air refueling
as necessary?” (Lemaster, 1976).
Gordon Taylor and Gordon Quinn from
the Aeronautical Systems Division at
Wright Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio,
were leaders in a conceptual design analysis
to determine if DoD could use the
AMST for strategic missions. The analysis
included reviewing the ability to carry the
M-60 Main Battle tank, weighing 110,000
to 117,000 pounds, on a routine basis with
ranges from 2,000 NM, 3,000 NM, and 4,000
NM. Taylor and Quinn concluded that using
a derivative aircraft in a routine strategic
airlift role would increase AMST
weight and cost significantly. To restructure
the AMST from a tactical to a strategic
program would require full-scale development
(a larger wing, heavier structure,
and different aerodynamics). Even
in a non-STOL capacity the wing was the
major airframe component that the study
said must undergo considerable change
(Taylor and Quinn, 1976). In May 1976,
Brig.Gen. Philip Larsen, Deputy Chief of
Staff, Systems, Air Force Systems Command,
wrote:
It would not be cost effective to incorporate
a STOL capability in a
strategic airlift derivative aircraft. A
strategic derivative could employ a
less complex conventional flap system
which would permit CTOL [conventional
takeoff and landing] operations
from an 8,000 foot hard surface
runway under sea level standard
day conditions. The aircraft would be
stretched eight feet to provide a 55-
foot-long cargo compartment. This
would permit routinely carrying the
M-60 tank and single item payloads
up to 112,500 pounds, or 14 463L
cargo pallets, for distances up to
3,000 NM without refueling. In this
particular example, it would be necessary
to increase... YC-15 wing area
69 percent and gross weight 115 percent...
(Larsen, 1976).
On December 10, 1979, Program Management
Directive (PMD) No. R-Q 6131(3)
formally cancelled the AMST program. On
that same day PMD No. R-C 0020(1) provided
formal direction and guidance for
activities leading to Full Scale Engineering
Development of the C-X. PMD R-C
0020(1) directed that the C-X skip Milestone
I and the Demonstration and Validation
phase because “...the new aircraft will
use existing technology... since the Air Force
had demonstrated and proved advanced
technology concepts and operational utility
in the AMST program” (Johnson, 1986).
Changing Payload Requirements
Payload requirements changed at least
five times over the life of the C-17. Beginning
in 1981 the request for purchase asked
for a STOL plane that could carry a payload
of 130,000 pounds (AMC, 1993).
McDonnell Douglas claimed it could produce
a STOL plane that could carry 172,200
pounds 2400 miles (Johnson, 1986). When
the contract was awarded in 1982, the payload
requirements were changed to 172,200
pounds (AMC, 1993). DoD did not evaluate
the cost to grow from a payload of
130,000 pounds to 172,200 pounds. In 1988
DoD changed the payload requirement
from 172,200 pounds to 167,000 in order to
accommodate the addition of a 4-pallet
ramp and OBIGGS that added 5,000
pounds additional weight to the aircraft
(Snider, 1992). In 1991 Gen. Hansford
Johnson, MAC Commander, reduced the
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Acquisition Review Quarterly – Summer 1995
payload requirements from 167,000 pounds
to 160,000 pounds because the kinds of
equipment MAC needed to haul over essential
routes—from West Coast bases to
Hickam AFB, Hawaii, and from East Coast
bases to Lajes airfield in the Azores—did
not require a plane with a 167,000-pound
capacity. He said:
This was not a reassessment of requirements
as much as it was a refinement
of the original requirements...
McDonnell Douglas, in
competing for the contract, offered
more than what MAC needed....All
of us, being eager to do more, said
sure, we’ll write the specs at the
higher level (Morrocco, 1991).
In January 1995, DoD, Congress, and
McDonnell Douglas agreed to decrease the
payload requirement even more. If the C-
17 were to carry a 160,000-pound payload
using short-field take-off and landing capability
with the weight of the plane and the
required fuel, it needed more powerful engines.
Pratt & Whitney and Rolls Royce,
had produced more powerful engines, but
the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition,
John M. Deutch, said changing to
more powerful engines was too costly. He
preferred to reduce payload specifications
rather than change engines, especially since
the C-17 did not need to carry a greater
payload to perform its mission (Morrocco,
1994). Fogleman said that DoD “...allowed
the plane to be over spec’d unnecessarily....
We didn’t need a plane to carry a 172,200-
pound payload then and we don’t need a
plane to carry 160,000 pounds now”
(Fogleman, 1995).
An absolute critical leg for us in this
new world we are living in is how
much can this airplane carry 3,200
miles...we established a 110,000-
pound payload threshold at the
3,200-mile range... The original requirement
set in the early 1980s was
for a 130,000-pound payload, the
weight of an M-1 tank then....this
specification is now not considered
the most critical. It was linked to the
Cold War goal of transporting 10
Army divisions to Europe in 10 days,
rather than how to deal with the
types of regional contingencies the
Pentagon now is focusing on in its
planning. An absolute critical leg for
us in this new world we are living in
is how much can this airplane carry
3,200 miles.... So we established a
110,000-pound payload threshold at
the 3,200-mile range which did not
exist before...the aircraft meets that
goal and is projected to exceed it.
Sticking to the original specification
would have required switching to
more powerful engines (Morrocco,
1994).
On January 17, 1995, the Air Mobility
Commander, Gen. Robert Rutherford, declared
the C-17 a success when he certified
it operationally capable (McDonnell Douglas,
1995). It’s worth noting, however, that
the program did not begin to overcome
technology problems until after top-level
commitment was apparent from principals
like Deutch (Defense Week, 1995) and
Fogleman. Fogleman essentially said this is
nonsense, “...we don’t need that much payload
capability...” (Fogleman, 1995), and
Deutch arranged a settlement with
McDonnell Douglas that allowed performance
trade-offs and help with computer
(CAD/CAM) technology. McDonnell
Douglas, in turn, put their best people on
the job to produce a technically proficient
airplane (Morrocco, 1994). As a result of
technology trade-offs and top management
commitment from both DoD and
the contractor, the C-17 exceeded its
schedule during 1994 and met mission
223
Technology Approach: DoD Versus Boeing
requirements in 1995.
Technical Problems
One might say that design problems and
planning problems were at the root of technical
problems that added time to development
of the C-17. The underlying problem
was that the players underestimated the
technical challenges. Roger A. Panton,
Chief of Engineering at the C-17 System
Program Office at Wright Patterson AFB,
said “Our primary technical problem with
the C-17 was integration. We grabbed too
much off the shelf and tried to put it together”
(Panton, 1994). Critical off-theshelf
technology included fly-by-wire, advanced
materials, engines, software, and the
powered lift that the McDonnell Douglas
YC-15 prototype demonstrated in 1975.
The Defense Science Board added in a
December 1993 report that lack of computer
aided design and engineering changes
contributed to production delays (Defense
Science Board, 1993). Deutch summarized
some of the most glaring weaknesses as: (a)
technical risks involved in flight test software
and avionics integration; (b) structural
deficiencies in the wings, flaps and slats; and
(c) uncertainty of flight test program requirements
(Morrocco, 1993).
Avionics Integration
Avionics is a term that covers the
myriad of ultrarefined electronic
devices on which modern airplanes
rely... (Newhouse, 1982).
On the C-17 that includes the flight control
system and the mission computer. Integration
of the mission computer and electronic
flight control system was one of the
three critical paths leading to first flight
(Smith, 1990). The first test flight of the C-
17, September 15, 1991, was behind schedule
(Smith, 1991) because of problems that
included changing from a standard mechanical
flight control system to a quadruple
redundant electronic flight control system,
and delays in the mission computer software
and flight control software (Hopkins and De
Keyrel, 1993).
In 1987, after McDonnell Douglas
missed delivery of the first test aircraft, DoD
reduced funding during budget reductions
and moved delivery schedule for the first
test aircraft three years to the right (to July,
1990) (Mastin, 1994). In addition, in January
1988, Congress deducted $20 million
from the C-17 during its budget review, but
invited DoD to ask for reprogramming of
funds (SAF/AQ, 1989). DoD declined.
Flight Control System
McDonnell Douglas changed to an electronic
flight-control system to prevent the
plane from entering into a deep stall
(Hopkins and De Keyrel, 1993). Wind tunnel
testing revealed that the C-17 design
caused deep stall characteristics. In 1987 the
Sperry Corporation (the flight-control subcontractor)
told McDonnell Douglas that
the mechanical flight control system could
not prevent pilots from putting the airplane
into an irreversible stall (ASD/AF/C-17,
1987). After confirming that the aircraft
configuration and the mechanical flight control
system could allow the aircraft to enter
an uncontrollable stall during certain tactical
maneuvers, Douglas directed Sperry to
change the mechanical flight control to a
fly-by-wire system (Smith, 1993). During
this same period Honeywell, Incorporated,
purchased the Sperry Corporation.
In June 1989, Honeywell officials established
April 25, 1991, as the new delivery
date for flight qualified software. The additional
delay added four years from the time
Douglas first asked for the system change
until delivery (1987-1991). Even though
Honeywell successfully completed an interface
control document (ICD) in July 1989,
showing how the electronic flight control system
(EFCS) interacted with subsystems, the
additional delay was too much. Brig.Gen.
224
Acquisition Review Quarterly – Summer 1995
Michael Butchko, Air Force C-17 Program
Manager, convinced Douglas Aircraft to hire
General Electric (GE) for development of a
similar system as a precautionary measure
(Hopkins and De Keyrel, 1993). Douglas
ended Honeywell’s contract for the EFCS in
July 1989 (Thomas, et al., 1990). GE delivered
the version 1 software for integration
testing in October, 1990 (Thompson, 1991).
Mission Control Computer
The three mission computers receive
data from other systems, analyze data, perform
calculations, and display information
to the pilot and copilot. The computers act
as the heart of the automated avionics system
and perform functions normally done
by the flight engineer such as determining
an estimate of position and velocity, weight
limits, airdrop, small airfield approaches,
and system management (Thomas, et al.,
1990). Each mission computer performs its
calculations and then compares its results
with the solutions broadcast over the data
bus by the other two computers (McDonnell
Douglas, 1993).
Douglas awarded a firm-fixed-price contract
to Delco in July, 1986, to develop the
mission computer (Mundell, 1990). In August
1988, an independent review team that
included personnel from McDonnell Douglas,
Hughes Electronics, and the Air Force
concluded that Delco had not adequately
accomplished system engineering and that
McDonnell Douglas had not adequately
defined the mission computer system requirements.
Delco developed the mission
computer software enough to hold a critical
design review of the detail design in
April, 1989 for the first of two increments
of software, but it would not commit to a
plan for completing the mission computer.
In July 1989, Douglas and Delco signed an
agreement that partially terminated Delco’s
contract for the mission computer subsystem,
and Douglas assumed responsibility
for managing the overall software development
effort (Thomas, 1990).
McDonnell Douglas subcontracted a
majority of software for the C-17 to subcontractors
and suppliers. During this process
Douglas did not specify a specific computer
language, which resulted in software for the
C-17 in almost every known language of the
time (AW&ST, 1992). Integration of the software
was a nightmare that GAO said resulted
in “...the most computerized, software-intensive
aircraft ever built, relying on 19 different
embedded computers incorporating
more than 80 microprocessors and about 1.3
million lines of code” (Hopkins and De
Keyrel, 1993). The final software release
was in September, 1994 with upgrades
through March 1995. David J. Lynch, in his
article “Airlift’s Year of Decision,” said that
in 1994 the mission computer remained
slow and did not meet the desired throughput
capacity requirements (Lynch, 1994).
John Wilson, C-17 Deputy Program Manager,
acknowledged that the program office
needs to consider software improvements:
This is a tough area. The C-17 System
Program Office recognizes that
additional throughput could be beneficial.
Although the computer performs
the basic mission, it is slow and
does not meet the desired throughput
capacity. We are working the
area (Wilson, 1995).
Wings
The wings, flaps, and slats combine with
high thrust engines and the electronic flight
control system for short take-off and landing
(STOL). Exhaust from the jet engines
force air over wings and flaps, generating
additional lift. Engines on the C-17 are
mounted under the wings and large flaps
protrude down into the exhaust stream. The
engine exhaust is forced through the flap
and down both sides of the flap, creating
significant added lift. The externally blown
flap system and the full-span leading edge
225
Technology Approach: DoD Versus Boeing
slats enable the C-17 to operate at low approach
speeds for short-field landings and
for airdrops (Henderson, 1990). Powered
lift enables the C-17 to land on shorter runways
than current, large-capacity transports
by allowing it to fly slow, steep approaches
to highly accurate touchdown points
(McDonnell Douglas, 1993). In October
1992, the wing failed a wing-strength test
(Morrocco, 1993). Even though Air Force
had reduced the maximum payload requirements
in December, 1989 from 167,000
pounds to 160,000 pounds at 2,400 NM, the
wings were still not strong enough to handle
a full payload (GAO, 1994) along with the
fuel and structure weight at a 1.5 safety factor.
Causes of the failure included a computational
error in the initial design, optimistic
design assumptions, and the method
used to determine compression stress
(Huston, et al., 1993). The wing modifications
covered a large area because
McDonnell Douglas used the erroneous
computation throughout the wing structure
(Smith, 1993).
The failed strength test was preceded by
persistent fuel leaks around the wing in September,
1991, because holes were not drilled
and fastened properly. Douglas held up delivery
of Production Aircraft for nearly a
month while technicians located the leaks.
Jim Berry, then Douglas vice-president and
general manager of the C-17 program, said
the problems stemmed primarily from a lack
of production discipline and unscheduled
work. The failed wing-strength test and persistent
fuel leaks around the wing cost
McDonnell Douglas more than $1 billion,
and modifications added an additional 700
pounds in aircraft weight (Smith, 1993).
Summary of the DoD Experience
DoD did not look at its investment in the
C-17 from a technically strategic view, nor
did it appreciate the challenge of C-17
STOL technology. When DoD changed the
mission of the tactical STOL to a strategic
STOL, both McDonnell Douglas and the
Department of Defense underestimated the
scope and cost of the effort necessary to
reduce the aircrew size to three persons and
fly 2,400 NM with a 172,200-pound payload.
As Fogleman said, DoD “...allowed the
plane to be over spec’d unnecessarily....We
didn’t need a plane to carry a 172,200-
pound payload then and we don’t need a
plane to carry 160,000 pounds now”
(Fogleman, 1995). In both cases (reducing
aircrew size and requiring STOL)
McDonnell Douglas had to increase its use
of computerized flight controls in order to
maximize performance. In all cases lack of
experience with software caused schedule
delays and increased cost. In addition a
math error caused problems that prevented
the C-17 wing from passing the stress test
at 150 percent. If McDonnell Douglas had
a CAD/CAM system like CATIA, it might
have detected and prevented both the stress
problems and the fuel leak problems.
CONTRASTING THE DOD
AND BOEING APPROACHES
Boeing’s focus during the design and acquisition
process was on cost, schedule, performance,
and market competition. DoD’s
focus during the design and acquisition process
was on performance. Boeing looked at
the technology included in its airplane more
realistically and did not try to include more
than the market would buy. DoD, on the
other hand, gold-plated requirements by
providing more capacity than the customer
needed, and underestimated the STOL
technology and cost needed to carry a
172,200-pound payload. Boeing used the
CATIA computer program to help revolutionize
its design and manufacturing plant
so that parts would fit right, and built an
entirely new plant to integrate and test its
new avionics package. Boeing’s investment
in infrastructure helped overcome its many
226
Acquisition Review Quarterly – Summer 1995
computer and avionics problems. DoD’s
contractor, McDonnell Douglas, designed
the C-17 on paper. McDonnell Douglas did
not use a computer program that could have
identified and helped eliminate both the
wing stress and the fuel leak problems, and
it did not adequately plan integration of the
C-17 avionics package.
When Boeing underestimated the time
and cost to overcome technical problems
in the 777 fly-by-wire and CATIA, it determined
what it needed to do to correct the
problems. Boeing decided to meet its delivery
date to United, and commit additional
money and resources to solve the
technical problems. DoD, on the other
hand, upon learning that McDonnell
Douglas could not meet its first scheduled
flight because of technical problems
that included software and STOL design,
took money away from the program and
stretched it out three years.
Jacques Gansler in his book, Affording
Defense, explains how DoD’s preoccupation
with technology is self defeating:
...the unreasonably long acquisition
cycle (10-15 years)...leads to unnecessary
development costs, to increased
“gold plating,” and to the
fielding of obsolete technology
(Gansler, 1989).
What happens is that DoD takes so long
to overcome technology problems that by
the time a weapon is complete, the technology
is outdated. In the case of the C-17,
that’s true. It is the most versatile up-to-date
cargo plane the U.S. currently has, but DoD
couldn’t produce the C-17 until the technology
problems of design, fly-by-wire,
embedded computer systems, and wing
stress were solved. As a result, Boeing completed
the 777 at about the same time even
though it was conceived several years after
the C-17. The 777 uses the same level of
technology or, as with flat-panel displays,
computer-design, increased propulsion,
and manufacturing processes, it uses more
advanced technology.
Jacques Gansler describes the dilemma
between the Defense and commercial approach
to technology in his illustration of
a college student working in the commercial
world versus one who works for defense.
A typical American engineering student
(graduate or undergraduate) is
taught how to design the “best system.”
Using computers, sophisticated
mathematics, and all their engineering
skills, these students set
out to design systems that will
achieve the maximum performance.
If they enter the commercial world,
they are taught that their designs
should be modified to reduce the
likely costs of production and operation.
However, if they enter the defense
world, they continue to use the
design practices they learned in
school, and cost-cutting becomes an
exercise for the manufacturer
(Gansler, 1989).
If DoD continues its past preoccupation
with technology, it will fall behind. In the
past commercial development programs
leveraged the technology developed by
the military; this was certainly true for the
777 fly-by-wire. However, the military is
now learning from commercial developers.
The F-22 and other acquisition programs
are using the integrated product
teams that Boeing developed in its design-
build approach. The F-22, the B-2,
and the V-22 Osprey are all benefitting
from CATIA and the strides Boeing made in
composite manufacturing. However, the programs
are not benefitting from Boeing’s design-
to-cost approach.
227
Technology Approach: DoD Versus Boeing
CONCLUSIONS
Did the difference in approaches to technology
contribute to the length of time it
took to develop the DoD C-17 compared
to the Boeing 777? One would have to say
yes. The most telling difference was how
Boeing and DoD reacted to technical problems
that threatened to impact delivery
dates. Boeing added more resources to
overcome technical problems whereas DoD
took resources away and moved the delivery
date out three years. As long as DoD
overestimates the maturity of technology it
wants to use, asks for more technology than
it needs, does not commit resources to overcome
technology problems in a timely manner,
and does not require cost, schedule, and
technology trade-offs during evolution of
the design, it will take longer to develop
weapon systems.
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A better way to get from here to there

2009-03-30T21:17:00.000-07:00

A publication of the New Rules Project
of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance
A better
way to get
from here
to there
A commentary
on the hydrogen
economy and
a proposal for an
alternative strategy
David Morris
December 2003
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
The Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR) is a nonprofit research and educational
organization that provides technical assistance and information on environmentally sound
economic development strategies. Since 1974, ILSR has worked with citizen groups,
governments and private businesses in developing policies that extract the maximum
value from local resources.
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information storage and retrieval systems, without permission in writing from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance,
Washington, DC.
3
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
Executive Summary
The idea of a hydrogen economy has burst
like a supernova over the energy policy
landscape, mesmerizing us with its possibilities
while blinding us to its weaknesses.
Such a fierce spotlight on hydrogen is pushing
more promising strategies into the
shadows.
The hydrogen economy is offered as an
all-purpose idea, a universal solution.
However, in the short and medium term a
crash program to build a hydrogen infrastructure
can have unwanted and even damaging
consequences. This is especially true
for the transportation sector, the transformation
of which is the primary focus of
hydrogen advocates and the highest priority
of federal efforts.
The focus on building a national hydrogen
distribution and fueling network to supply
fuel cell powered cars ignores shorter
term, less expensive and more rewarding
strategies encouraged by recent technological
developments. The most important of
these is the successful commercialization of
the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV).
The HEV establishes a new technological
platform upon which to fashion transportation-
related energy strategies. Its dual
reliance on electric and gasoline propulsion
systems allows and encourages us to develop
a dual energy strategy that expands the
electricity storage and propulsion capacity
component while rapidly expanding the
renewable fuels used both for the electricity
and engine side of the vehicle.
The current hydrogen economy strategy
focuses almost entirely on the engine
side of the hybrid with its inherent ramifications:
the creation of a nationwide production
and delivery system for hydrogen and
the commercialization of a fuel cell car that
can use pure hydrogen. A lower cost strategy
with a quicker payoff and impact would
focus on expanding electricity storage side
and substituting biofuels for gasoline.
HEV’s overcome the key performance liability
of all-electric cars: short driving
range. But the current generation of HEVs
lack the ability to operate solely on batteries.
Electricity is used to reduce or eliminate
energy losses due to idling and stopand-
go driving in urban areas.
Manufacturers should be strongly encouraged
to quickly develop the next generation
of HEVs that can travel significant distances
on battery power alone. Rapid advances
have occurred in recent years in electric
storage technologies.
One element of this strategy is to
encourage plug-in HEVs (PHEVs) that can
recharge the batteries from the grid as well
as the engine. While HEVs can reduce fuel
consumption by 30 percent, PHEVs can
reduce consumption by 85 percent or more.
A Better Way
to Get from Here
to There
A Commentary on the Hydrogen Economy
and a Proposal for an Alternative Strategy
David Morris, Vice President
Institute for Local Self-Reliance
December 2003
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
4
Extending the HEVs electricity-only
driving range should be accompanied by a
simultaneous strategy that expands the use
of renewable energy to fuel both the motor
and the engine. On the electricity side, this
means dramatically expanding the generation
of electricity using wind, sunlight and
other renewable fuels. On the engine side it
means dramatically expanding the use of
sugar-derived biofuels. More than 4 million
variable-fueled vehicles are already on the
road. They can operate on any combination
of ethanol and gasoline. The cost of modifying
vehicles to allow them this multiple fuel
capacity is small, about $150 per vehicle
compared to the tens of thousands of dollars
additional cost of a fuel cell vehicle. The cost
of developing a network of fueling stations
capable of delivering biofuels as a primary
fuel (50-100 percent) rather than the current,
6-10 percent additive is a tiny fraction of the
cost of establishing a network of hydrogen
fueling stations, about $50,000 for a biofuel
refueling station versus some $600,000 for a
hydrogen refueling station.
Currently in the United States ethanol is
made from sugars extracted from corn. In the
future the sugars will come from far more
abundant cellulose materials like corn stalks
and wheat straw and grasses and kelp. A
sugar economy would not only reduce the
nation’s dependence on imported oil but
would create the potential for designing a low
cost agricultural policy that benefits domestic
and foreign farmers alike.
For the foreseeable future, even the
hydrogen economy’s most ardent supporters
concede that theirs will be a high cost
strategy ($2.50 to $12 per gallon of gasoline
equivalent) based on nonrenewables and
likely to increase the emissions of greenhouse
gases. These advocates argue that in
the long term these various costs can be
reduced or eliminated. Technically that may
be so. But hydrogen’s high cost, poor energetics
and scant environmental benefits for
the near and medium term future must be
taken into account when evaluating it
against alternative fuels and strategies.
For example, hydrogen advocates
argue that hydrogen’s higher cost will be
offset by the higher efficiency of fuel cells.
The argument is valid when fuel cells are
compared to traditional internal combustion
engines (ICEs) but disappears when fuel
cells are compared to HEVs.
Some environmentalists have criticized
biofuels for their cost and modest net energy
yields. Yet hydrogen costs are higher
than biofuels even when the latter’s subsidies
are eliminated. And hydrogen production
and distribution has a negative net
energy yield. Finally, while electric batteries
have a high cost compared to gasoline they
are a lower cost storage medium than liquid
or compressed hydrogen.
A dual strategy (improvements in electricity
storage, electronics controllers and
software accompanied by an aggressive fuel
substitution policy) has many advantages
over a hydrogen focus. It is cheaper, less
disruptive and more resilient. It can have a
more dramatic short-term impact. It can
allow us to tackle multiple societal problems
(e.g. the plight of farmers and rural
economies) at the same time.
One can argue that this is not an eitheror
situation. We can promote hydrogen
while promoting more efficient vehicles and
renewable fuels. But we have scarce financial,
intellectual and entrepreneurial
resources. Dramatic improvements in the
efficiency of our transportation fleet via the
introduction of advanced and plug in
hybrids and the expansion of renewable
fuels to substitute for gasoline can occur
incrementally using the current production
and distribution systems. For a hydrogen
economy to have any impact the nation
must change virtually every aspect of its
energy system, from production to distribution
to the design of our gas stations and
our cars.
We may be on the verge of spending
hundreds of billions of dollars and diverting
enormous amounts of scarce intellectual
and entrepreneurial energy to create an
infrastructure based on nonrenewable fuels
in the hope that after it is in place we might
fuel it with renewable energy.
The chicken-and-egg problem of building
an infrastructure to allow the hydrogen
economy to emerge, even if the initial basis
of that economy is nonrenewable fuels has
already enticed environmental and renewable
energy advocates into a series of unfortunate
compromises. For example, to jumpstart
a hydrogen fueling system the
Minnesota legislature in 2003 declared natural
gas to be a renewable energy resource
so long as it is used to make hydrogen. In
2003 the California Air Resources Board
“Hydrogen’s high cost,
poor energetics and scant
environmental benefits for
the near and medium term
must be taken into account
when evaluating it against
alternative fuels and
strategies.”
5
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
(CARB) declared a fuel cell car superior to
a plug-in hybrid vehicle even though the
former would consume more fossil fuels
than the latter.
The electricity network is already in
place. Why not focus on expanding the portion
of this delivery system that relies on
renewable energy rather than spend the
next generation creating a new delivery
infrastructure that, once built, will require
renewable energy to once again make
inroads? In 2003 renewable resources generate
about 1.5 percent of the nation’s transportation
fuels and about 2.5 percent of the
nation’s electricity. Why not focus on ratcheting
upwards these low percentages rather
than face a situation in 2020 where renewable
resources generate 1-2 percent of the
nation’s hydrogen?
A crash program to switch to electricity/
biofuel powered vehicles should take
into account social and economic issues.
The transition should not only expand
renewable energy use but do so in a way
that maximizes the benefits to hard-pressed
rural economies here and abroad. This is
best accomplished by having the power
plants locally owned.
Farmers who own a wind turbine can
earn several times more than those that
simply lease their land for large-scale wind
developers. Farmers who own a share of
ethanol plants can earn several times more
per bushel of corn delivered than their
neighbors who only sell their corn to
ethanol plants.
There is another important reason to
treat scale and ownership issues seriously:
the concentration of market power. Archer
Daniels Midland (ADM) generates about 40
percent of the ethanol produced in the
country and dominates nationwide distribution.
Although its share has dropped in the
last 10 years with the rapid growth of smaller
and medium-sized ethanol facilities,
many of which are farmer owned, it
remains a worrisome situation. This is especially
so because of ADM’s past involvement
in price fixing and its aggressive exercise
of market power.
An aggressive biofuels program promises
important international benefits as well.
The key trade disputes currently involve
farmers in industrialized countries pitted
against farmers in poorer countries. Rather
than have carbohydrates compete with carbohydrates,
a biofuel program would allow
carabohydrates to compete with hydrocarbons.
The agricultural sector and farming
communities in poorer countries are far bigger
than in the United States and Europe.
And the use of plant matter to displace
imported fossil fuels is even more compelling
in poorer countries that lack the
hard currencies needed to pay for these
imports.
A decision to focus on an
electricity/biofuel path for the transportation
sector does not preclude the rapid
deployment of fuel cells. Indeed, the fuel
cell economy is developing rapidly without
a hydrogen distribution network. Fuel cells
have the attractive potential of decentralizing
and democracizing the electricity system,
reducing system costs and lowering
the likelihood of repetitions of widespread
blackouts like the one that occurred in the
northeastern United States in August 2003.
A fuel cell economy does not depend on a
hydrogen economy as currently envisioned.
The strategy currently envisioned to
effect a hydrogen economy may be diverting
significant intellectual, financial and
political resources from more attractive
strategies. Before we take that leap, we
should take a long hard look at the premises
and promises of the hydrogen economy
and at the other alternatives available that
could achieve the same goals more quickly
and cheaply.
Worldwide Sources of Commercial Hydrogen 2002 2
Origin Amount in billions Nm3 per yearPercent
Natural Gas 240 48
Oil 150 30
Coal 90 18
Electrolysis 20 4
“In 2003 renewable
resources generate about
1.5 percent of the nation’s
transportation fuels and
about 2.5 percent of the
nation’s electricity. Why not
focus on ratcheting
upwards these low percentages
rather than face a situation
in 2020 where renewable
resources generate 1-2
percent of the nation’s
hydrogen?
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
6
The Vision
In January 2003, President Bush announced
a $1.6 billion five-year effort to make hydrogen
the fuel of choice in the transportation
sector.1 The initiative was applauded on
both sides of the aisle. In the spring of 2003
the hydrogen title of the Energy Bill (Title
VII) was voted on first because of its uncontroversial
nature. As Marie Fund, spokeswoman
for the Senate Energy Committee
correctly noted before the hearings began,
“It’ll be kind of a love fest.”
Spurred by the sudden federal enthusiasm,
state legislatures have moved quickly
to embrace the hydrogen economy. In late
April 2003 California revised its Zero
Emission Vehicle program to focus on
hydrogen fuel cell vehicles rather than battery-
electric vehicles. In June 2003
Minnesota’s legislature declared, “It is a
goal of this state that Minnesota move to
hydrogen...” In July 2003 the Pacific
Northwest, led by the Bonneville Power
Authority, declared its intention to become
the “Saudi Arabia of hydrogen”.
The attractiveness of a hydrogen
economy is easily explained. Hydrogen is
the planet’s most abundant element. It
can be extracted from water, another
abundant material. Hydrogen gas is odorless,
tasteless and non-poisonous. Fuel
cells using hydrogen emit only water.
There are no harmful tailpipe or smokestack
emissions.
A future powered by hydrogen extracted
from water using electricity generated
by renewable fuels like wind or geothermal
power is a most appealing vision.
A fundamental reason that the hydrogen
economy initiatives have garnered such
widespread support is that everyone can
play the game. No energy source is excluded.
And in this game the fossil fuel and
nuclear industries have enormous advantages.
• Currently the industrial hydrogen
market is mature and growing. The hydrogen
comes primarily from natural gas (95
percent in the United States, 50 percent
worldwide) although it is also made from
coal and petroleum. Industrial use of
hydrogen is about 50 million metric tons
and growing at 4-10 percent per year.3
Some 95 percent of the hydrogen is generated
by industries for internal use as a
chemical for making fertilizer or in oil
refining. Five percent is merchant hydrogen
sold to external users.
• The nuclear industry sees itself as a
key player in a hydrogen future. “Hydrogen
Economy; Boom Time for Hydrogen
Production by Nuclear Energy,” reads a
headline in Power Economics.4 Nuclear
power “is the only way to produce hydrogen
on a large scale without contributing to
greenhouse gas emissions,” boasts the
trade journal Nucleonics Week. The federal
energy bill authorizes as much as $1 billion
to build a nuclear reactor and use it to
extract hydrogen from water.
• Coal supplies almost 20 percent of
the world’s hydrogen. At the 2000 World
Hydrogen Energy Congress in Beijing, Italy
and China announced plans to cooperate to
boost that percentage. President Bush has
launched a billion dollar initiative to develop
a coal gasification-to-hydrogen plant.
• Several automobile and oil companies
are betting that petroleum will be the
hydrogen source of the future. It was
General Motors, after all, that coined the
phrase “the hydrogen economy”. There is
more hydrogen in a gallon of gasoline than
in a gallon of liquid hydrogen.
• Wind energy and solar energy advocates
support hydrogen production as a
way to overcome the limitations resulting
from the intermittent nature of producing
electricity from these resources.
• There is another reason there is little
opposition to a hydrogen economy. After
President Bush announced a billion dollar
initiative in January 2003 it was apparent
that money for hydrogen-related projects
would soar even as money for other programs,
both fossil fuel and renewable, were
projected to decline. Potential recipients for
this new money are reticent to criticize the
initiative. States have begun to “prime the
pump” by investing significant sums up
front in the anticipation that it will make
them attractive for the increased federal
funding.
“There is more
hydrogen in a gallon of
gasoline than in a gallon of
liquid hydrogen.”
7
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
The Reality
A Hydrogen Economy Is Not A
Renewable Energy Economy
For the foreseeable future the vast majority
of hydrogen will be made from nonrenewable
resources. The Department of
Energy expects natural gas to be the primary
source for transportation-related
hydrogen for the next 10-20 years and
probably for many years beyond that.
After a review of the scientific and engineering
literature, MIT researchers
announced, “The uniform conclusion is
that decentralized gas reforming stations
can provide hydrogen at lower cost than
any of the other options 20 years from
now.”5 In the longer term, the Department
of Energy believes coal could become a
significant supplier of hydrogen after
2015. President Bush’s long-term vision,
as outlined in his State of the Union
address, is to use nuclear fusion to produce
hydrogen from water.
Hydrogen can be produced using
renewable energy but the cost is far higher
than producing hydrogen from non-renewable
fuels. “Electrolytic hydrogen from
intermittent renewable resources is generally
two to three times more costly to produce
than hydrogen made thermo-chemically
from natural gas or coal, even when
the costs of CO2 sequestration are added to
the fossil hydrogen production cost,” Joan
Ogden, research scientist at the University
of California-Davis told the House Science
Committee in March 2003.
All advocates of the hydrogen economy
discuss the “chicken and egg” problem. We
can’t have a hydrogen economy until there is
an adequate system for storing, transmitting
and fueling cars (and stationary fuel cells)
with hydrogen. Doing so will take decades
and the cost will run into the hundreds of billions
of dollars. While we build the infrastructure
hydrogen will come from non-renewable
resources like natural gas that has its own
distribution system. After the hydrogen infrastructure
is in place, renewable hydrogen
will be able to enter the market.
To get the hydrogen economy up and
running some states are allowing fossilfueled
hydrogen to be considered renewable
hydrogen feedstocks. In the spring of
2003, for example, the Minnesota legislature
declared that natural gas-derived
hydrogen would be considered renewable
energy until 2010 and therefore eligible for
incentive programs related to hydrogen and
fuel cell industry development.
A renewable hydrogen economy is an
interesting prospect. But the reality is that
the gestation process for the renewable egg
is going to be measured in decades. In the
meantime the energy for the chicken will
come from fossil (or nuclear) fuels.
Which is why some in the renewable
energy community question the wisdom of
shifting intellectual, financial, political and
entrepreneurial resources into a crash program
to produce hydrogen. The European
Wind Energy Association (EWEA) cautions
that a premature push toward a hydrogen
economy “could have a serious environmental
downside”. Christian Kjaer, EWEA’s policy
director notes, “It is a backwards argument
that hydrogen opens access to new and
renewable energy sources. It is the other way
around. Large-scale renewable energy production,
such as offshore wind power, is an
essential precondition for the deployment of
a sustainable hydrogen economy.”6
In the last 30 years renewable energy
has overcome significant odds. In the United
States it has now captured about 2 percent of
the total transportation fuels and electricity
markets. Wind power is the world’s fastest
growing energy resource. The growth curve
for photovoltaics is steep. This is the time to
make a major effort to move solar energy
from the margins of energy production to its
center rather than to shift our intellectual and
scientific and capital resources toward constructing
the infrastructure demanded for a
hydrogen economy and end up 25 years from
now where we are, in essence today: having
2 percent of the hydrogen market and hoping
to increase that fraction.
It is instructive to note that while windgenerated
hydrogen is far from competitive
with fossil fuel-generated hydrogen, windgenerated
electricity may already be competitive
with fossil fuel-generated electricity.
In several states electricity from high-speed
winds is the least expensive source of new
power. Even when wind-generated electricity
is more expensive, it is by 20-40 percent,
not 200 percent as is the case with windgenerated
hydrogen. One study concludes,
“Electrolysis is an uneconomical use of
wind and geothermal electricity”.7
“While windgenerated
hydrogen is far
from competitive with fossil
fuel-generated hydrogen,
wind-generated electricity
may already be competitive
with fossil fuel-generated
electricity.”
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
8
A Hydrogen Economy is a Diversion
of Scarce Resources
Currently federal energy budgets are stable
or shrinking but appropriations for hydrogen
research are expanding. Inevitably that
encourages existing programs to reorient
their programs toward hydrogen. Thus new
programs are in wind energy to hydrogen,
in nuclear power to hydrogen, in coal to
hydrogen. R&D on electric batteries and
other types of electricity storage systems is
shrinking while spending on hydrogen storage
is soaring. Spending to create a nationwide
system of hydrogen fueling stations
will soon surpass spending to create a
nationwide system of biofuel filling stations.
Growing numbers of states and even cities
have convened task forces to discuss how
to orient local resources into building a
hydrogen economy.
A Hydrogen Economy Is Energy
Inefficient
Hydrogen is not a fuel. It is an energy carrier,
like electricity. Like electricity, hydrogen
must be produced. It may be the world’s
most abundant element but hydrogen is
found only in combination with other elements.
Energy must be used to extract the
hydrogen. In most cases the energy used to
extract the hydrogen could otherwise be
used to meet the needs of the final consumer
directly.
For example, natural gas can be consumed
directly in a highly efficient power
plant (e.g. a combined cycle combustion
turbine or an on-site fuel cell with heat
recovery). This is a more efficient use of
natural gas than to use the gas to fuel the
process of extracting hydrogen from the
gas and then using more energy to compress
and transmit the hydrogen to a fuel
cell and then converting the hydrogen
into electricity. According to one calculation,
it takes 64 percent more natural gas
to make hydrogen and generate electricity
via a fuel cell with it than to generate electricity
directly via an efficient power plant
(heat rate of 7000 Btus per kWh).8 Others
calculate the loss in system efficiency at a
lower but still significant level.
The same disconcerting dynamic holds
true for renewable energy technologies. It
is more effective to generate electricity
using wind power and deliver it directly to
the customer than to use wind-generated
electricity to produce hydrogen, transport
the hydrogen long distances and then convert
the hydrogen back into electricity.
The staff of Aerovironment, Inc., an
engineering company headed by Paul
MacCready, the inventor of the first successful
human-powered airplane and the
company that helped design GM’s sporty
all-electric car the EV1, offers an instructive
illustration of the inefficiencies involved in
making hydrogen rather than electricity.
To satisfy the daily driving needs of a
battery-powered electric vehicle a home
would need a solar electric array of 450
square feet. Many homes have this amount
of rooftop space. However, if the solar cell
A Word About
Iceland
Iceland has received welldeserved
favorable attention
for boldly announcing
its intention to convert
entirely to hydrogen by
2040. Iceland has enormous
amounts of unharnessed
renewable energy,
mostly geothermal. With a
population of only
200,000 it has a tiny internal
market. The global
hydrogen market for
chemical uses is growing
rapidly. Iceland is seeking
to use its small internal
market to nurture technologies
and fuels that
could eventually become a
major export market. It is
a commendable strategy.
The United States is not in
a similar situation.
DOE Appropriation Requests for Renewable Energy and Hydrogen
0 50 100 150 200 250 million dollars
FY 2004 FY 2003
Renewable Energy Technologies
Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
Renewable Energy Technologies (requested)
Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
9
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
were instead used to electrolyze water and
feed the resulting hydrogen into a fuel cell
powered car, the amount of energy needed,
and therefore the size of the solar array
required, would increase 2.5 times to some
1100 square feet. That is beyond the space
available to most residences.
It requires about 60 kWh of electricity
to produce 1 kg of hydrogen from water
(with current electrolysis systems). An electric
vehicle needs only 38 kWh to travel the
same distance as a fuel cell vehicle using 1
kg of hydrogen.9
An in-depth study by two Swiss engineers
found that the energy needed to compact
gaseous hydrogen and transmit it long
distances dwarfed the energy contained in
the hydrogen. They conclude, “We have to
accept that (hydrogen’s)...physical properties
are incompatible with the requirements
of the energy market. Production, packaging,
storage, transfer and delivery of the
gas....are so energy consuming that alternatives
should be considered.”10
A Hydrogen Economy Increases
Pollution
The combination of higher energy losses
and the continuing reliance on fossil fuels
could result in increased greenhouse gas
emissions at least in the initial stages of
shifting to a hydrogen economy. One analysis
done for the Department of Energy in
2001 by Directed Technologies found that
relying on hydrogen electrolyzed from
water would double greenhouse gas emissions
compared with conventional gasoline
operation (using the average marginal US
grid generation mix).
Another study for the British
Department of Transportation concluded,
“Switching to an accelerated hydrogen fuel
pathway…will actually create more CO2 not
less. The reason is that the hydrogen used to
fuel the vehicle will have to come from
steam-reformed natural gas.”11
A Green Hydrogen Economy?
The thesis of this report is that a hydrogen
economy, for the foreseeable future, will be
based on non-renewable fuels and that we
can more rapidly progress toward a renewable
fueled transportatioin system at far
less cost by embracing the strategy elaborated
here.
Many argue that we should support a
hydrogen economy but only one fueled by
“green hydrogen”. Such a position raises
several issues.
Do these advocates oppose the elaboration
of a hydrogen infrastructure if it is not
in its initial stages predominantly powered
by renewable energy? Do they reject the
“hydrogen highway” proposed by newly
elected California Governor Arnold
Schwarzenegger unless only green hydrogen
were used? Do they oppose the development
and installation of distributed steam
reformers if these are reforming natural gas
rather than biogas or biofuels? Do they
reject the financing and installation of electrolyzers
unless they were powered by
renewable electricity?
“Even as world leaders
were announcing their
support for a hydrogen
economy a new technology
was entering the marketplace
that could and should
change the nature of the
conversation about
transportation futures.”
Comparison of Battery and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
75 miles daily
Source: Aerovironment Inc.
Battery Electric Vehicle
0.33kWh per mile = 25 kWh per day
Solar Array . . . . . .450 square feet: $33,600
Battery
Electric Vehicle . . .$40,000
Charger . . . . . . . . .$600-$2,000
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
50 miles per kg = 1.5 kg per day (hydrogen)
66 kWh per kg = 90 kWh per day
Solar Array . . . . . .1100 square feet: $81,600
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Electric Vehicle . . .$40,000 (future?)
Hydrogen Generator
(water electrolysis) $8,000 (?)
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
10
There are some R&D areas that would
be tailored only to renewable energy (e.g.
biofueled fuel cells and reformers). But the
vast majority of R&D for a hydrogen economy
does not depend on the source of the
hydrogen. The electrolyzers that rely on
wind generated electricity will not be much
different than those that rely on natural gas
or coal fired electricity. The creation of the
delivery and storage and fueling and onvehicle
consumption technologies is the
same whether one relies on renewable or
nonrenewable fuels to make the hydrogen.
If 95-99 percent of the R&D and investment
is the same whether the hydrogen is
“brown” or “green” then those who advocate
green hydrogen need to clarify how and
where, in the next 10-20 years, their
roadmap differs from those who advocate
hydrogen from any resource. If not, it is likely
that green hydrogen advocates, like green
electricity advocates, will ask for a renewable
standard. But in the case of electricity the
infrastructure for delivery and end-use is
already in place and green electricity already
has a share, albeit tiny, of the market. Will
we see a demand for a 10 percent national
renewable hydrogen standard in 2030?
Hybrid Electric Vehicles:
A New Technological Platform
Most advocates of a hydrogen economy concede
that the price of hydrogen is high and
the process of making and distributing it
may be energy intensive. But they note that
when the hydrogen is used in a fuel cell the
fuel cell’s higher efficiency makes the overall
system less costly and more environmentally
benign than the present inefficient
internal combustion engine system.
That may be accurate. But one should
not compare a technology of the future with
a technology of yesteryear. For even as
world leaders were announcing their support
for a hydrogen economy a new technology
was entering the marketplace that
could and should change the nature of the
conversation about transportation futures.
The technology is the hybrid electric
vehicle. Hybrid vehicles boast both an
engine and an electrical propulsion system.
Hybrids enable electric vehicles to overcome
their key shortcoming: short driving
range. Although EVs have been more popular
than auto manufacturers acknowledge,
their 60-85 mile driving range has severely
inhibited their widespread use.
The hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) overcomes
the limitations of the 100 percent
battery-powered vehicle. The HEV has
excellent acceleration because of the torque
generated by electric motors. Tail pipe
emissions are extremely low. The first generation
Toyota Prius qualified as a Low
Emissions Vehicle (LEV) under California
regulations. Its second generation, introduced
in 2001, qualified as a Super Ultra
Low Emissions Vehicle (SULEV) and its
third generation is even more environmentally
friendly. This type of vehicle reduces
hydrocarbon emissions by 97 percent, carbon
monoxide emissions by 76 percent,
nitrogen oxide emissions by 97 percent and
particulate matter emissions by 90 percent
compared to the Tier 1 standard emissions
set by the Department of Energy.
The commercial success of hybrids
caught many in the automobile industry by
surprise. The story is instructive and may
be one reason why American policy makers
have not included hybrids in their future
planning. The Hybrid Electric Vehicle
(HEV) Program officially began in 1993.
The billion dollar five-year cost-shared program,
the Partnership for a New
Generation of Vehicles (PNGV), partnered
the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and
the three largest American auto manufacturers:
General Motors, Ford, and
DaimlerChrysler. The “Big Three” committed
to produce production-feasible HEV
propulsion systems by 1998, first generation
prototypes by 2000, and market-ready
HEVs by 2003. The automobile companies
promised to produce an 80-mile per gallon
prototype car by 1997.
The American car companies failed to
produce a commercial hybrid. The federal
government, relying on the research done
by the domestic car companies, designed a
future transportation strategy in which
hybrid electric vehicles did not play a significant
role.
Japanese carmakers, shut out of the
PNGV program, succeeded where
American carmakers had failed. Toyota
introduced the first hybrid electric vehicle,
the Prius, in Japan in December 1997 and in
the United States in July 2000. In December
“Hybrid vehicles already
are approaching the
efficiencies the government
is projecting for fuel cellpowered
vehicles 10 years
from now.”
11
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
1999 Honda introduced the Insight Hybrid
in Japan and in May 2002 in the United
States. In September 2003 Toyota introduced
its third generation Prius, a bigger
car with better performance and a higher
efficiency than its predecessor.
Hybrid sales doubled in 2002, reaching
35,000 in the United States. As of mid-2003
more than 100,000 were on the road worldwide.
Toyota claims to be making a profit
on its Prius. JD Powers projects that annual
sales and leases of HEVs in the United
States will soar to almost 500,000 by 2006
and 900,000 by 2010.12
The surprising success of Japanese
HEVs has resulted in some equally surprising
changes-of-heart by American car manufacturers
about the commercial feasibility
of HEV. As late as April 2002 General
Motors’ CEO and President G. Richard
Wagoner, Jr told Business Week, “How will
the economics of hybrids ever match that of
the internal combustion engine? We can’t
afford to subsidize them.” Nine months
later Wagoner admitted to CBS News, “I
think it’s fair to say nobody knows how big
this thing can be.”
In late 2002 Ford announced it would
be introducing a hybrid in the fall of 2003.
GM declared it would introduce a hybrid
pickup in 2004. Dodge will introduce a
hybrid Ram Contractor in 2005. However,
American car companies were unable to
meet their deadlines. In late 2003 Ford
announced it was postponing its introduction
of its HEV to 2004. GM announced it
was delaying introduction until 2007.
Daimler/Chrysler canceled its plans to
build a hybrid SUV. Meanwhile Toyota
announced that its 40 mile per gallon SUV
will be introduced on schedule in 2004.
Toyota introduced its third generation
HEV Prius in September 2003. The price is
the same as the previous generation Prius
but the vehicle is bigger and roomier and
with better fuel efficiency.13 By early
November demand had become so high
that Toyota was considering adding a night
shift to its Japanese factory for the first time
in its history. That would increase production
from 6,000 to 10,000 units a month.
Sales in Japan alone reached 17,500 in
September. In the U.S. the hybrid had
10,000 advance orders.
The emergence of the high-efficiency
hybrid changes the context for the discussion
of the hydrogen economy. For example,
all observers agree that the price of
hydrogen will be very high for the foreseeable
future. Currently merchant industrial
hydrogen costs more than $5 per kg (a kg
of hydrogen contains the energy of a gallon
of gasoline). The Department of Energy’s
goal is to produce hydrogen for a delivered
cost of $2.50 per kg by 2015 excluding federal
and state taxes. This is a far higher
cost than the projected price of gasoline,
excluding environmental costs.14
Hydrogen studies assume that the
higher price of the fuel will be offset by the
2-3 times higher fuel efficiencies of fuel cell
cars over internal combustion engine cars.15
But it is inappropriate to compare the cost
of a fuel cell powered hydrogen car that
won’t be commercialized for 5-10 years or
later with a century-old internal combustion
engine whose fuel efficiency has barely
improved in the last 50 years. A far more
appropriate comparison would be to currently
commercialized hybrid vehicles, or
even better, to hybrids that could be commercialized
in the next five years.
Hybrid vehicles already are approaching
the efficiencies the government is projecting
for fuel cell-powered vehicles 10
years from now (55-60 miles per gallon). An
assessment by MIT concluded, “there is no
current basis for preferring either FC (fuel
cell) or ICE (internal combustion engine)
hybrid power plants for mid-size automobiles
over the next 20 years. This conclusion
applied even with optimistic assumptions
about the pace of future fuel cell
development.”16
Hybrids can rely on fuel cell engines as
well as internal combustion engines but
they improve the efficiency of ICE’s more..
As the MIT researchers note, “hybrids
improve urban fuel economy of ICE vehicles,
whose engines have lower efficiencies
at lower power (and speeds) more than they
improve FC vehicles whose fuel cell stack
have higher efficiencies at lower power.”17
Some hydrogen advocates support using
hydrogen in internal combustion engines
rather than fuel cells. Not only can this be
done much more quickly but it can be done
much more cheaply. Such a strategy would
eliminate the additional cost of fuel cell vehicles
although it would still require a costly
delivery and storage infrastructure.
“Half of all cars on
the road travel a total of 20
miles or less each day.”
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
12
A Better Way
Step 1: Maximizing Efficiency:
Moving from HEV0 to HEV60
The current generation of hybrid electric
vehicles relies on the internal combustion
engine to fill the battery. The battery provides
electricity to motors for acceleration.
In effect, hybrids join together two power
plants. As one observer describes the
process, “A large electric motor gets the
vehicle rolling and even can power it up a
hill. A gasoline or diesel engine kicks in for
top acceleration and takes over when the
vehicle is at cruising speed. When the vehicle
stops, the engine shuts off, conserving
fuel. A computer turns over cabin heating
or cooling to the electric motor which is
supplied by powerful batteries recharged
by braking.”21
The HEV has a much more powerful
motor and a much smaller engine than its
counterparts. Reduced gasoline consumption
comes primarily from avoiding energy
use during idling and from using the motor
for stop-and-go urban driving. One intriguing
result is that HEVs are more efficient in
the city than on the highway. The second
generation Prius for example was rated at
45 miles per gallon on the highway and 52
miles per gallon in the city.
HEVs currently have no ability to be
charged from the electrical grid system and
little or no ability to operate solely on battery-
power. The industry designates this
generation of hybrids HEV0, the zero indicating
the number of miles the car can travel
on batteries alone. (The 2004 Prius actually
can travel a modest distance under light
load and low speed conditions.)
Hybrids can be configured to use electricity
for the majority of their propulsion
needs. These vehicles have larger battery
capacity. They are called plug-ins (PHEV)
because they can plug into an external electricity
system for charging. These PHEVs
are identified by numbers that indicate a
higher stand-alone electric driving range:
HEV20, HEV60.
As long as the battery has sufficient
charge, plug-in HEVs operate like a 100 percent
battery electric vehicle. When the battery
is low they operate like an engineassisted
HEV0. The displacement of gasoline
by external electricity depends on the
amount of battery capacity the vehicle has
and the owner’s daily driving habits.
Half of all cars on the road travel a total
of 20 miles or less each day. Such modest
mileage is especially true of urban vehicles.
Thus a vehicle with battery capacity sufficient
to travel 20 miles (HEV20) before
recharging can substantially reduce the
amount of gasoline consumed even in comparison
to today’s hybrid (HEV0). The electricity,
moreover, is used to displace the
gasoline used for those parts of a trip that
are the most polluting: stop-and-go driving,
continuous acceleration or deceleration,
cold engine starts, and idling.
HEVs have smaller engines than conventional
vehicles and larger motors. They
have similar acceleration because the
power of the engine and the motor can be
combined. The plug-in HEVs have more
electrical storage capacity. The greater the
battery capacity the higher the percentage
of time the vehicle will rely on the battery
rather than the engine. A hybrid with the
ability to travel 60 miles on its batteries
before recharging requires about 18 kWhs
of storage capacity.
If a car were driven 20 miles per day
and an HEV20’s batteries were fully
charged daily there would be a drastic
reduction in liquid fuel consumption. A
hybrid that can travel 60 miles on its battery
would allow for more daily driving or
fewer recharging cycles and could reduce
by 85 percent the amount of fuel the automobile
consumes.
A Word About
Fuel Cells
This report advocates a federal
program that accelerates the
use of high efficiency hybrid
vehicles fueled by biofuels. It is
not an argument against fuel
cells. The author has argued
elsewhere in favor of a vigorous
federal and state effort to
accelerate the use distributed
electricity technologies including
fuel cells.
The introduction of fuel
cells does not depend on the
introduction of a national distribution
network for hydrogen.
Fuel cells run on hydrogen, but
they can make the hydrogen
on-site. Currently they do so
by using hydrogen carriers like
natural gas, propane, methane
and methanol.
Since the world’s first fuel
cell vehicle was introduced in
1959 about 780 fuel cell systems
have been used in transport,
including bicycles, scooters,
cars, busses, submarines
and boats. About 200 of these
provide auxiliary power for US
and Russian spacecraft.18 In
the last year there have been
about 150 fuel celled vehicles
introduced, virtually all of them
pre-commercialization. The
conclusion of the most authoritative
survey of worldwide
operations is, “Exciting it may
be, but the advent of fuel cell
vehicles is still many years
away and the technical, commercial
and regulatory issues
that must be resolved are far
from trivial.”19 The cost of car
fuel cells, on the other hand,
must drop a hundredfold
before they are competitive.
Some argue there is “a need
for a Nobel Prize-winning
breakthrough” to make this
happen.20
Fuel cells for stationary
applications began to be intro-
Comparative Features of Conventional Vehicles and HEVs22
Vehicle Conventional HEV0 HEV20 HEV60
Engine Peak Power, kW 127 67 61 38
Motor RatedPower, kW — 44 51 75
Battery Rated Capacity, kWh — 2.9 5.9 17.9
Vehicle Weight, tons 1.85 1.78 1.83 1.96
13
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
Unlike the hydrogen-fueling infrastructure,
the electricity-fueling infrastructure is
already in place. Andy Franks, professor of
engineering at the University of California-
Davis, one of the country’s leading advocates
for PHEVs estimates that 95 percent
of homes and 70 percent of multi-family
dwellings have relatively easy access to a
120V outlet.
A study for the British Department of
Transportation that analyzed various pathways
to a hydrogen fuel future concludes,
“progressive electrification and hybridisation
offers significant CO2 benefits regardless
of the fuel or its source, at a risk level
more manageable than alternatives such as
more radical new vehicle technologies or
major infrastructure change.”23
Plug-in HEVs, says Bob Graham, area
manager of the Electric Power Research
Institute’s (EPRI) transportation program,
are “the logical next member of the family
of hybrid vehicles...With the possible exception
of the batteries, plug-in HEVs require
only evolutionary engineering advances
over HEV0 technology to meet technical
requirements.”24
Some argue that hybrid developments
alone will improve batteries and that since
fuel cells are expensive, automobile manufacturers
will still have an incentive to
increase the amount of work the batteries
(and motor) can do. But battery research at
automobile companies has virtually ceased.
R&D for HEV0 cars focuses on improving
the power output of the batteries rather
than their energy storage capacity. The
technological improvements needed for
both purposes do overlap but there are
major differences. One is intended to supplement
the engine. The other is intended
to replace the engine. Increases in power
often lead to reductions in energy density, a
prime objective for those who want to minimize
battery weight while expanding the
amount of driving done with batteries.
As Bob Graham, area manager of transportation
systems at EPRI observes,
“(P)roduced in volume, hybrid EVs such as
the Toyota Prius and the Honda Civic will
help drive down the cost of motors and controllers
that could be used in all types of
electric-drive cars.But the commercialization
of the plug-in hybrid EV, because of its
large market appeal, holds the key to the
one remaining barrier to zero emission
vehicles-the cost of the ’energy’ battery.”
Graham warns, “Currently, most incentives
do not increase with the all-electric
range of HEVs, even though there are larger
environmental and energy security benefits
associated with electric (battery only)
operation…The cost of advanced batteries
for non-plug hybrid EVs, plug-in hybrid EVs
and battery EVs is highly dependent on the
establishment of a growth market situation,
a predictable regulatory environment and
consistent production volumes that encourage
capital investment in production capacity
and line automation by battery and automotive
manufacturers.”
California’s recent revisions to its Zero
Emission Vehicle program is a good example
of regulatory decisions that may dramatically
affect the development of PHEVs.
The program requires that participants produce
a minimum number of “gold standard”
vehicles. Only fuel cells and 100 percent
battery-powered electric vehicles qualify for
that standard.25 After a long and contentious
debate, and after vigorous opposition by
leading environmental organizations, the
California Air Resources Board decided not
to require any hybrid vehicles with electriconly
driving ranges. These do qualify as a
“silver standard” technology but so do a
dozen other technologies, including hydrogen
powered internal combustion engines.
Thus it is unlikely that this regulation alone
will spur manufacturers to introduce plug in
HEVs.
Step 2: Expanding Battery Capacity
California recently abandoned its focus on
100 percent battery-powered electric vehicles
for promoting zero emission vehicles in
part out of frustration by what it believed
has been a lack of progress in battery
development. By January 2003 all major car
companies had eliminated their all-battery
electric vehicle sale and leasing programs:
Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda, Nissan and
Toyota.) A report done for the California
Air Resources Board concluded that, “direct
efforts to develop EV batteries have generally
declined over the last 3 years.”26
However, recent evidence suggests that
the report’s conclusions were premature.27
It takes a long time between invention and
commercialization. Beta R&D, a company
that has developed the sodium nickel chloride
battery called ZEBRA took 17 years to
duced in field trials in the late
1970s. Today more than 2,500
are in operation. Fuel Cell
Today notes, “Progress in the
development and deployment
of small stationary fuel cells
(electrical output less than 10
kW) has continued at a high
level, with the cumulative number
of systems almost doubling
from 1,000 to 1,900 (in
the last year).”
The commercialization of
stationary power fuel cells is
increasing rapidly. Rapid technological
advances are occurring
in high-temperature fuel
cells that can use natural gas
and other fuels directly (e.g.
solid oxide cells) and in on-site
reformers of natural gas and
other fuels into hydrogen for
use in lower temperature fuel
cells.
The price of stationary
fuel cells needs to drop in half
for them to be price competitive,
assuming the waste heat
is captured. Nevertheless,
increasing numbers of businesses
are installing them now
because of their high reliability
and the high quality of the
electricity they produce.
Fuels cells are one of the
most promising technologies
that can allow for a dramatic
decentralization of our electricity
system. These technologies
along with the necessary regulatory
changes should be
strongly supported by policymakers.
Fuel cell cars and the
hydrogen infrastructure needed
to power those cars might
properly await the development
of on-site stationary fuel cells.
As Romesh Kymar, head of
fuel cell development in the
chemical engineering department
at Argonne National
Laboratory observes, “Maybe
fuel cell powered cars will
come at the tail end of those
stationary developments.”
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
14
develop a battery technology that in 2002
went into commercial production in a facility
owned by MES-DEA. Avestor, a Canadian
company, has just introduced a lithium
metal polymer battery it claims has been in
development for over 20 years.
Recently the Electric Power Research
Institute (EPRI) issued a report that found
“important and steady improvements in battery
technology, even over the past few
years. Researchers specifically found that
advanced batteries used in electric drive
vehicles are far exceeding previous projections
for cycle life and durability, a key consideration
in cost.”28 EPRI found, for example,
that advances in Nickel Metal Hydride
batteries (NiMH) meant that only one battery
pack rather than the two anticipated in
an earlier study would be needed for the
life of the vehicle. “It is highly probable that
NiMH batteries can be designed, using current
technologies, to meet the vehicle lifetime
requirements of full function battery
EVs, plug-in HEVs with 40 to 60 miles of
EV range....”
EPRI and others estimate that an
HEV60, in the near term, would cost about
$10,000 more than a conventional HEV.
Some believe the technological
advances in batteries are coming even more
quickly, spurred by increasing demands for
more power for portable electronic equipment
like laptop computers and cell phones.
Here consumers are willing to pay several
times the price per kilowatt-hour for energy
than are electric vehicle owners. That
makes the portable electronics market an
incubator for storage technologies that can
later be scaled up for use in electric vehicles.
Sony Corporation first commercialized
lithium batteries for laptop computers in
1991. Current lithium ion batteries have
energy capacities four times those of lead
acid batteries and almost twice that of nickel
metal hydride batteries. Recently scientists
reported that it was possible to construct
a lithium ion battery that could store
400 Wh per kg, ten times that stored in a
typical lead acid battery.29
The dynamics of battery advances is
such that the cost of those already commercialized
and thus mass produced for the
premium electronics market are now lower
than those that are still produced in small
batches for the electric vehicle market. In
2003 San Dimas-based AC Propulsion Inc.
replaced the electric batteries in its EV with
lithim-ion batteries. The substitution saved
500 pounds and increased by a factor of
three the amount of energy that could be
stored. Alan Cocconi, AC Propulsion
founder and chief engineer noticed the
rapid progress that had occurred in the use
of these small cells in laptops and power
tools. “Manufacturers produce these cells
by the tens of millions, so they compete
intensely based on performance and costs.
The result is commercial, off-the-shelf battery
technology with fantastic specs. We
decided to use it in electric cars”
Their new battery, called the tzero
LiIon is assembled from 6800 standard
cells. Tom Gage, President of AC
Propulsion notes, “The market for big cells
is small so they cost too much. The small
cells for the tzero cost less, in total, than
the nickel-metal hydride battery in the
Toyota RAV4EV and they hold twice the
energy. We got a quote from one battery
company for a Li Ion pack made from 100
much larger cells. Their price was 10 times
higher and neither the energy or the power
were as good as we get from the small
cells.”30
It is instructive that California, which
was very optimistic about battery development
when it launched its Zero Emission
Vehicle program in 1991 is now even more
optimistic about fuel cell developments. The
California Air Resources Board predicts
that the additional cost per fuel cell powered
vehicle, now about $1 million will drop
to $300,000 in the 2006-8 model years, to
$120,000 in 2009-2011 and to $10,000 in
2012-14.
Few other researchers are as optimistic
as California in the reduction in the cost of
fuel cell cars. Indeed, at the Future Car
Congress in June 2002 Toyota’s fuel cell
engineer Norihiko Nakamura announced,
“If a certain level of mass production can be
achieved the costs should be dropped drastically.
But a great amount of effort is needed
to bring the cost to even two to three
times that of a standard vehicle.”31
If California’s projection does come
true, 10 years from now we will be able to
buy a $30,000 conventional automobile for
$40,000 if powered by a fuel cell. That cost
“An urban-based HEV
that can travel 60 miles on
its batteries could reduce
fuel consumption by 85
percent.”
15
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
increase is about what the increased cost
right now would be for an HEV60.32 The
fuel cell car, however, will achieve fuel efficiencies
comparable only to those of the
2003 model HEV0 while the HEV60 will
achieve efficiencies 50 percent greater or
more.
This cost comparison doesn’t include the
infrastructure investments required. One
recent estimate by two energy experts reported
estimates a cost of $5,000 per vehicle to
create the infrastructure for hydrogen fueled
vehicles.33
The infrastructure for battery-driven
vehicles is already in place, except for
quicker rechargers or a wider availability of
electric outlets.
Step 3: Renewable Fuels for the
Engine
An effort to expand renewable energy for
the electricity part of the hybrid vehicle
would take a lesson from the effort to
expand renewable electricity overall. Some
15 states have Renewable Portfolio
Standards that require an increasing portion
of the state’s electricity supply to be
renewable fueled. The distributed nature of
some renewable energy technologies offers
diverse scenarios. In parts of California
solar cell canopies over parking lots
recharge electric vehicles parked during
the workday and plugged into outlets at the
meters. The Los Angeles Department of
Water and power estimated that a 1.87 kWh
array could provide roughly 17,000 miles
worth of power for an electric vehicle. A
recent study found that most cars have sufficient
surface area to generate 20 percent
of their transportation fuel needs from solar
cells embedded into the vehicle’s body.34
A focus on hybrids and plug in hybrids
offers the potential for a remarkable
improvement in energy efficiency with no
reduction in performance or vehicle room.
This is true for all types of vehicles, including
and especially SUVs.
An urban-based HEV that can travel 60
miles on its batteries could reduce fuel consumption
by 85 percent. This would reduce
the fuel consumption of a typical mid-sized
car from 600 gallons of gasoline per year to
100 gallons. If all vehicles were equipped
with this technology, annual national gasoline
consumption could decrease from
about 140 billion gallons to about 40 billion.
35
Such an improvement in efficiency in
and of itself would virtually eliminate our
reliance on imported oil. High efficiency
hybrids would also allow us to take a closer
look at using biofuels as a primary fuel
rather than an additive.
Currently the gas tanks of vehicles
using ethanol blends contain 5.7-10 percent
ethanol. With minor costs vehicles can be
modified to run on ethanol or gasoline or
any combination thereof. According to Eron
Shostek of the Alliance of Automobile
Manufacturers, the cost of these adjustments,
which include toughening some
hoses and installing a computer device to
900—
800—
700—
600—
500—
400—
300—
200—
100—
0—
Gasoline Consumption by Vehicle Size and Type
Annual Gasoline Consumption (gallons)
Compact Sedan Midsize Sedan Midsize SUV Fullsize SUV
Conventional
Vehicle
No-Plug Hybrid—
HEVO
Plug-In HEV,
20 mile EV range,
HEV20
Plug-In HEV,
60 miles EV range,
HEV60
Source: Electric
Power Research
Institute
“For ethanol or other
biofuels to become a
primary fuel will require a
shift to a reliance on a more
abundant feedstock.”
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
16
sense the amount of alcohol in the fuel so it
can mix with the correct amount of air for
combustion, is less than $160 per vehicle.
Thus for less than $1.5 billion all of the 9
million new cars sold each year in the
United States could be capable of using biofuels
to supply a majority or even all of their
engines’ needs.36
Because of government incentives
automakers plan to sell nearly 1.8 million
flexible-fueled vehicles in 2004, doubling
the 2 million cars already on the road.37
Currently more than 10 models of flexiblefueled
vehicles are available including the
best selling Taurus and Explorer.38
Ethanol and other biofuels currently
account for about 2 percent of our transportation
fuel supply. Production is increasing
rapidly. In the last three years annual
production capacity has expanded by one
billion gallons. By the end of 2007 it could
reach a capacity of 5 billion gallons per
year.
In several midwestern states, like
Minnesota, ethanol accounts for almost 10 percent
of the transportation fuel consumed by
cars each year. A 10 percent ethanol blend on a
national level would require about 15 billion
gallons a year. An aggressive national effort
could achieve this production level by about
2015 at a far lower cost and with a far greater
environmental and national security benefit
than a national effort to achieve significant
inroads of fuel cell vehicles powered by hydrogen.
Instructively, the federal hydrogen
roadmap doesn’t envision a 10 percent penetration
of hydrogen into the market until well
after 2030.
Ethanol has burst out of its identity as a
regional fuel because of the phase out by 18
states of their use of MTBE in gasoline.
MTBE is a petroleum and natural gas
derived oxygenate that has been used, in
proportions of about 13 percent, in a significant
portion of our gasoline since 1996. The
discovery that it is polluting groundwater
led states, beginning with California, to
phase out its use. The result? In California
ethanol consumption, virtually non-existent
in 2000 will exceed 600 million gallons in
2003. Similar jumps in consumption can be
expected as New York’s phase out becomes
operational in early 2004.
Ethanol is a much-misunderstood fuel.
Ethanol is alcohol. Liquor. Given its 100
percent alcohol content, it might more aptly
be called moonshine. Ethanol is fermented
from sugars just as wine and beer is. The
low-content alcohol that is produced is then
distilled to higher and higher concentrations,
making it useable as a power fuel.
Currently the sugars come from starch
crops because starch is easily and inexpensively
broken down into sugars and
because the harvesting and processing of
starch crops (e.g. corn, wheat) is a mature
industry with mature byproduct markets.
Today more than 98 percent of ethanol
made in the United States is derived from
corn. Starch crops could produce 7-15 billion
gallons of ethanol, although there
would be an impact on both corn prices
(higher) and animal feed prices (lower) as a
result. The higher volume is sufficient to
allow for the universal use of a 10 percent
ethanol blend, something that requires no
infrastructure or vehicle modifications. This
could be done at a fraction of a cost and
achieved ten to thirty years earlier than
achieving similar gasoline displacement
through the use of hydrogen and fuel cell
cars. Karen Miller, vice president of technical
operations for the National Hydrogen
Association estimates that to have 10 percent
of Americans driving fuel cell powered
cars will require 80 percent of the existing
“gas” stations to be retrofitted to offer
hydrogen.39 This would be enormously costly.
Almost as great a petroleum displacement
could occur without any modifications
in the vehicles or the filling stations by
achieving a 10 percent blend of ethanol
nationwide.
Making ethanol a primary fuel will
require the installation of new fueling tanks
in gas stations. To date there are almost 200
E85 (85% ethanol) refueling tanks in place,
far more than the 15 hydrogen-fueling
tanks currently operational in the United
States. The cost of installing a 12,000-gallon
E85 tank and three E85 gas pumps (dispensers)
is less than $50,000. This would
serve scores of cars a day. Some gas stations
are converting the nozzles for poor
selling grades (e.g. premium) to allow for
dispensing E85. The dispenser conversion
costs of doing this is about $1,000. The cost
of installing a hydrogen fueling station at
the University of California Davis was
roughly $600,000 and this doesn’t include
“We should compare
the cost of ethanol not to
current gasoline prices but
to current and future
hydrogen prices.”
17
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
the cost of a hydrogen reformer at each
fueling station. The fueling station can service
only 8 vehicles per day.40
For ethanol or other biofuels to become
a primary fuel will require a shift to a
reliance on a more abundant feedstock. The
key is to access the sugars in cellulose, the
most abundant biological material on the
planet, found in all plants from grasses to
trees to crops, and convert these sugars
into ethanol. This means converting the
corn stalks and wheat straw into ethanol
rather than the corn and wheat kernels.
Hundreds of millions, perhaps billions
of tons of biological materials are available
for conversion into fuels and chemicals.
Each year the United States produces about
300 million tons of cellulosic waste (urban
wastes and agricultural residues that can be
removed from the soil without environmental
harm). Another 1 billion tons of cellulosic
materials could be grown on available
lands without interfering with our food supply
or causing environmental damage.
Assuming current yields of 80 gallons per
ton, and half of the cellulosic material actually
being converted into ethanol, production
could exceed 50 billion gallons per
year.
Cellulose is not as easily broken down
into sugars as is starch but significant
progress has been made in the last ten
years. One commercial cellulose-to-ethanol
plant is operating in Canada at a small
scale. The cost of the ethanol is higher than
the cost of ethanol from starch because of
the high value of the byproducts of conventional
ethanol production (e.g. high protein
animal feed or high fructose corn syrup
and lower protein animal feed). In part this
is because the cost of gathering and baling
and transporting the agricultural residues is
currently very high. The cost will come
down as new technologies and techniques
are developed to serve a growing new agricultural
sector.
The cost of ethanol is high today compared
to the cost of gasoline. Handsome
subsidies equivalent to 54 cents per gallon
of ethanol make up the difference.41 If
ethanol production (or biodiesel
production42) were to increase substantially,
the cost to the taxpayer would increase dramatically.
However, in the context of a hydrogen
economy we should compare the cost of
ethanol not to current gasoline prices but to
current and future hydrogen prices.
The wholesale price of ethanol ranges
from $1.10-1.50 per gallon. On an energy
equivalent basis, this translates into a price
of about $1.65-2.15 per kg of hydrogen or
gallon of gasoline (excluding taxes). This is
substantially lower than the federal goal of
$2.50 per kg of hydrogen by 2015. Thus to
compete with hydrogen, ethanol would need
no incentives.
“Making hydrogen
from natural gas has a
negative net energy ratio.”
Comparing the Cost of an Ethanol Highway vs. a Hydrogen Highway
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 thousand dollars
Cost of an ethanol refueling station
Cost of a hydrogen refueling station
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
18
A Few Words about Ethanol
Biofuels and the Environment
The use of plants as a primary transportation
fuel is controversial. There are several
key issues. Will the dramatic substitution of
carbohydrates for hydrocarbons deprive the
world of needed food? Will the increased
use of plants lead to increase soil erosion or
ground water pollution? Does it take more
fossil fuel energy to grow a plant and convert
it into biofuels than the energy contained
in the biofuels and its byproducts?
Food versus Fuel
When corn is converted into ethanol it is
the starch, which is otherwise often converted
into sweeteners, that is lost. The
process actually concentrates the protein.
As we switch to cellulosic materials the
food versus fuel problem becomes more
one of the availability of land. Although estimates
vary, it appears that sufficient land
area exists to allow us to produce significant
quantities of fuels (and biochemicals)
without disrupting or diminishing the food
or feed supply. The Union for Concerned
Scientists, citing an in-depth analysis by the
Audubon Society concludes, “Overall,
around 200 million acres of cropland might
be suitable and available for energy or
“power” crops, without irrigation and without
competing with food crops.43 At current
yields of cellulosic crops like fast growing
trees, 200 million acres could provide 1 billion
tons a year of feedstock. Yields could
be increased significantly. Ten tons per acre
is a likely figure for the medium term
future. Tests of sugar cane bred to maximize
fiber rather than sugars resulted in
yields as high as 60 tons per acre in Puerto
Rico.
The amount of cellulosic wastes available,
through the harvesting of agricultural
residues like corn stalks and wheat straw
and forest industry wastes like sawdust and
bark and a part of the organic waste stream
of municipal solid waste could add another
300 million tons or more to the annual volume.
44 The resulting overall harvest
(assuming that only 40 percent of the agricultural
residue is removed) is about 1.3 billion
tons. At current yields this is sufficient
to provide over 100 billion gallons of
ethanol as well as significant quantities of
biochemicals and “waste” biomass that can
be used to provide the energy for the conversion
process.
Net Energy
A remarkable number of studies have been
done on the energetics of ethanol. The vast
majority of studies done since 1990 conclude
that there is a positive net energy generation
of more than 1.3:1 for corn derived ethanol.45
The table below extracts from a 1995 study
by the Institute for Local Self-Reliance.
Based on case study data from farms and
ethanol facilities, it estimated a positive net
energy ratio of 1.36:1. The study examined
three scenarios. The base line relied on
national average energy inputs by corn farmers
and ethanol plants. The second scenario
used the energy inputs of corn farmers in
the state the used the lowest energy inputs
and the most efficient existing ethanol plant.
$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12
Ethanol
Hydrogen (DOE goal)
Hydrogen made from natural gas
Hydrogen made from renewable electricity
Comparing the Cost of Ethanol and Hydrogen
gallon of gasoline equivalent
“When corn is
converted into ethanol it is
the starch, which is otherwise
often converted into
sweeteners, that is lost.
The process actually
concentrates the protein.”
19
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
The third scenario used the energy inputs
from the most efficient corn farmer using
organic methods and the next generation
ethanol plant. The last scenario showed an
energy output to input ratio over 2.0.
The fundamental conclusion from these
energetics studies is that the net energy
ratio of ethanol is positive and growing more
positive as farm productivity improves and
ethanol fuel efficiency improves. For example,
one ethanol facility is in the process of
substituting corn stover and wood chips for
natural gas in providing all of its heat energy
and a portion of its electrical energy. Once
the substitution takes place the positive net
energy ratio of that facility should soar.
Cellulose to ethanol plants may have an
even more positive energetics ratio because
the feedstock uses less energy-intensive
inputs to grow and the parts of the plant not
converted into ethanol can be used to fuel
the plant.
Just as we need to compare hydrogen
and ethanol on cost we need to compare
ethanol and hydrogen on net energy generation.
Margaret Mann, one of the leading
researchers, has concluded that whereas
making hydrogen from biomass has a positive
net energy yield of 17 to 1 and wind
energy to hydrogen a positive net energy
yield of 12 to 1, making hydrogen from natural
gas has a negative net energy ratio.
Taking into account upstream operations
such as extraction and delivery of natural
gas, steam methane reforming, the most
popular hydrogen generation technology, is
only 67 percent efficient. That means for
every 1 unit of fossil fuel energy in, one
gets .67 units of energy out.46 If hydrogen
were made from electrolysis the electrolyzing
process itself uses 50-60 kWh to make 1
kg of hydrogen. Assuming 3414 Btus per
kWh the process itself uses more energy
than the kg of hydrogen contains. This is
compounded if the electrical process uses
steam, since the input per kWh out could
be over 8000 Btus.
Air Quality
There have been a number of evaluations of
ethanol’s impact on air quality. What we
know is that a 10 percent blend of ethanol
reduces carbon monoxide, a precursor for
ozone formation, significantly (by more
than 25 percent). We also know that ethanol
when used as an additive displaces highly
toxic and volatile components of gasoline
(e.g. benzene, toluene, xylene).
We also know that ethanol at a 10 percent
or lower blend also increases the total
volatile organic compound emissions from
the gasoline by about 15 percent. However,
since the VOCs emitted by pure gasoline
are more reactive than those produced with
ethanol blends and because of the significant
carbon monoxide reductions resulting
from the use of ethanol, any increase in
ozone formation is negligible.47
At higher concentrations of ethanol the
volatility of the gasoline-ethanol blend
drops. At concentrations above 25-40 percent
evaporative emissions drop below the
level they were before a drop of ethanol
was added to the gasoline. This eliminates
volatility as a problem. The reduction in carbon
monoxide emissions, a contributor to
ozone formation at ground level, increases
as the percentage of ethanol in the fuel
increases. There is some concern that an
increase in oxygen will increase nitrous
“Before we invest
hundreds of billions of
dollars to remake our
transportation system we
should be clear that the
means we embrace enable
the ends we pursue.”
Energy Used to Make Ethanol from Corn (BTUs per Gallon of Ethanol)
Corn Ethanol Corn Ethanol Corn Ethanol
(Industry Average) (Industry Best) (State-of-the-Art)
Feedstock Production 27,134 19,622 14,765
Processing 53,956 37,883 33,183
Total Energy Input 81,090 57,504 47,948
Energy Output (inc. co-products) 111,679 120,361 120,361
Net Energy Gain 30,589 62,857 72,413
Percent Gain 38% 109% 151%
Source: How Much Energy Does It Take to Make A Gallon of Ethanol?, ILSR, 1995
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
20
oxides (NOx), also a contributor to ozone
formation. But NOx is generated from high
combustion temperatures and ethanol
burns cooler than gasoline. That is one of
the reasons it makes such a good racing
fuel. And the new low emitting vehicles that
are entering the marketplace in ever-higher
numbers (including hybrids) appear not to
lead to a NOx increase from an increase in
fuel oxygen.48
Some studies have compared greenhouse
gas emissions of ethanol used as a
primary fuel in an internal combustion
engine versus hydrogen made from natural
gas used in a fuel cell powered car. One
analysis found that an E85 car using cornderived
ethanol produces, over the entire
fuel cycle (fuel used to grow the feedstock
and convert it to ethanol and convert the
ethanol into useful work in the engine) generates
about a third less carbon dioxide
equivalent greenhouse gases than a conventional
car getting 27.7 miles per gallon (275
vs. 400 grams per mile).49
The same study found that a hybrid EV
that gets 45 miles per gallon with no standalone
electric driving range using gasoline
formulated to California’s rigorous air quality
standards would emit the same amount
of greenhouse gases as the E85 car. A
hydrogen car relying on hydrogen produced
from natural gas at the gas station
generates about a third less greenhouse
gases than an E85 car (175 vs. 275 grams
per mile). Producing hydrogen from electrolysis
generates about the same as an E85
car (240 vs. 275 grams of CO2 per mile).50
The report concludes, “If all passenger
vehicles in California used E85 instead of
RFG3 (gasoline formulated to meet
California standards) in 33 mpg vehicles ...
(there would be a) 7 percent reduction in
annual California GHG emissions.”
This report assumes ethanol is made
from corn. If it were derived from the sugars
in cellulosic material and if the lignin in the
cellulosic material were used to generate the
energy needed by the manufacturing
process, a net reduction in greenhouse gases
could occur. That is, more carbon dioxide
would be absorbed by the plant while growing
than is generated by all the inputs into
growing the plant, converting it into transportation
fuel and consuming that fuel.51
One other environmental point should
be made about biofuels. A biorefinery, like a
petroleum refinery, will make many end
products. Production will be optimized to
maximize the enterprise’s profit. Petroleum
refineries make fuel, chemicals and other
end products. Biorefineries would do the
same. Indeed, ethanol may become a
byproduct of many facilities. A cellulose-toethanol
facility may convert only about 25
percent of the overall weight of the material
into ethanol. The rest can be used to fuel the
manufacturing process and as feedstock for
making higher value chemicals than ethanol.
The environmental benefits, both upstream
and downstream, from displacing petrochemicals
with biochemicals is significant.52
Assuming that 600 million tons of cellulosic
materials are converted into 50 billion
gallons of ethanol, some 400 million tons of
biological materials could become available
for conversion into chemicals. Although
one cannot substitute on a pound for pound
basis, the quantity of materials available is
about equal to the consumption of all organic
and inorganic chemicals in the United
States today.
Biofuels and Fuel Cells
As discussed above, a fuel cell economy is
possible without building a national distribution,
storage and fueling system for pure
hydrogen. Some fuel cells can extract the
hydrogen directly from hydrogen-carrying
liquids or gases. Others can extract the
hydrogen with built-in reformers. Alcohols
represent one of the hydrogen-carrying fuels
that could be used in fuel cells. Thus expanding
the use of alcohols in our engines could,
if hydrogen and fuel cells do prove to be a
cost-effective alternative, become a steppingstone
to using hydrogen derived from those
alcohols.
Most of the work in direct conversion of
alcohols in fuel cells has used methanol. A
fueling station in California dispenses
methanol into a fuel cell powered car that
doesn’t need onboard reforming. The phase
out of MTBE promises to make significant
quantities of methanol available. Methanol
can be made from biological materials but it is
currently cheaper to make it from natural gas.
Ethanol too reportedly is being used in
fuel cells. Several Chicago buses powered
by fuel cells are using hydrogen reformed
from ethanol. Significantly, the fuel cell can
use low-grade ethanol that contains 15-20
percent water (needed in the reforming
“Public policy
initiatives that resulted in a
large number of small and
medium-sized biorefineries
could change the face and
structure of American (and
perhaps world) agriculture.”
21
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
process) rather than fuel-grade ethanol that
contains no water. Low-grade ethanol can
be produced using less energy and at a
lower cost.
Just as small battery technologies are
developing rapidly because of the introduction
of more powerful mobile electronic
equipment so are small fuel cells. Micro
fuel cells using liquid fuels that can be purchased
in cartridge form (like refills for cigarette
lighters) are beginning to enter the
market. Toshiba announced in March 2003
a 12 watt direct methanol fuel cell for
portable computers that can run for 5 hours
on a single cartridge filled with 50 cc of
methanol. It expects to introduce it into the
market in 2004.
A start-up company, Medis
Technologies, has announced that it will
introduce a micro-fuel cell that converts
ethanol directly into electricity. Medis
believes that ethanol is a better fuel than
methanol because of restrictions regarding
methanol’s use in certain situations. The
Federal Aviation Authority, for example,
currently prohibit poisonous methanol from
being carried on airplanes.
Meanwhile, researchers at Saint Louis
University in Missouri are developing an
even more fascinating biological storage
and conversion device. Professor Shelley
Minteer recently announced a breakthrough
in enzymatic batteries that break
down ethanol fuel. These are potentially
much cheaper than existing fuel cells that
rely on expensive metals like platinum or
ruthenium catalysts. According to one
report, these biobatteries could have power
densities more than 30 times greater than
other batteries.53
Ownership Matters
“Perfection of means and confusion of ends
seems to characterize our age,” Albert
Einstein wisely observed half a century
ago. Before we invest hundreds of billions
of dollars to remake our transportation system
we should be clear that the means we
embrace enable the ends we pursue.
The three ends most people agree upon
are: enhanced national security; improved
environmental stewardship; healthier rural
economies.
The currently envisioned hydrogen
economy addresses the first end. The second,
arguably, is undermined unless the
hydrogen comes from renewable resources
or the fossil fuel generated electricity is
coupled with the long term storage of the
carbon emitted. The strategy does not
address economic development goals. A
dual fuel approach that maximizes the use
of renewable resources for the electricity
used by the hybrid electric vehicle’s motors
and maximizes the use of renewable
resources for the fuel used by its engine
addresses all three objectives.
America’s hard-pressed rural areas and
farmers have two abundant renewable
resources: wind and biomass. The former
can be harnessed to provide the electricity
for the HEV’s batteries. The latter can be
Fuel Cycle
Vehicle Cycle
Source:
The Impact of
Alternative Fuels
on Greenhouse
Gas Emissions,
TIAX
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ethanol Blends
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 grams per mile
Gasoline 0%
Ethanol
Pure Ethanol—Corn
Pure Ethanol—Biomass
“The social and
economic impact of an
increased demand for
biofuels is similar to that
for wind energy. It depends
on the structure of
ownership.”
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
22
harnessed to provide the fuels for the
HEV’s engine.
However, the shift to a renewable
fueled transportation system will not in and
of itself make a significant contribution to
the welfare of rural America. Currently a
wind developer may pay a farmer land-lease
payments of $3,000-4,000 a year per turbine.
This is welcome income for the landowner
because the turbine requires very little land
to be taken out of production and the land
owner has no responsibilities. However, if
the landowner owns the turbine his or her
revenue can double or triple during the 10
year financing period. After the turbine is
paid off the annual income could soar to
$100,000.
With regard to wind there are
economies of scale in the size of the turbine
but few if any economies of scale in
the size of the ownership structure. Thus a
1 MW wind turbine will be able to generate
electricity at a cost substantially cheaper
than a 50 kW turbine. But the farmer
who owns a single 1 MW turbine will be
able to generate electricity at a price comparable
to that offered by the wind developer
who owns 50 1 MW turbines. This
assumes the farmer is part of a management
structure that diffuses the risks and
spreads the management costs over more
machines. This has been the case in
Minnesota.
A typical large wind farm today generates
some 100-150 MW. The same amount
of power could be generated by 100 farmers.
Given the hundreds of thousands of
turbines that will be needed to power our
transportation system the number of
farmer-owners could run into the hundreds
of thousands and the amount of additional
income earned by rural residents into the
billions of dollars.
The social and economic impact of an
increased demand for biofuels is similar to
that for wind energy. It depends on the
structure of ownership. The corn farmer
benefits from an increase in ethanol
demand because the increase in the overall
demand for corn increases its price. But the
price increase is small, perhaps on the
order of 5-10 cents per bushel. If an ethanol
plant locates nearby the farmer may receive
a modestly higher net price for his or her
corn because of lower transportation costs.
This amounts, on average, to 5-10 cents per
bushel. But the farmer who owns a share in
an ethanol refinery can expect to receive
annual dividends ranging from 25-50 cents
per bushel or more.54 Of course, there will
be periods when the farmer receives no dividends.
One unpublished analysis of a large
Minnesota ethanol plant concluded that
farmer-owners earned 18 percent annually
on their investment.
With regard to ethanol, there are
economies of scale in the size of the facility.
A 100 million gallon per year facility might
have production costs 10-15 cents per gallon
lower than a 15 million gallon per year
facility. To aggressively increase the
amount of biofuels available one might
argue for a focus on larger plants. But there
is a technological and socio-economic
dynamic that comes from a proliferation of
smaller plants.
The Minnesota experience, often called
the Minnesota Model, is instructive. In the
early 1980s Minnesota’s state ethanol incentive
mirrored that of the federal incentive—
a partial exemption from the gasoline tax.
That incentive succeeded in making the
price of ethanol competitive with other
gasoline additives. The demand for ethanolblended
gasoline soared. But the demand
was met entirely by ethanol imported into
the state from out of state large manufacturing
facilities owned by one multinational
corporation. Minnesota farmers and
Minnesota’s farming communities were not
benefiting from the expanded consumption
of ethanol inside the state.
To remedy this problem, Minnesota
converted its state ethanol incentive from a
consumer-oriented excise tax exemption to
a producer-oriented direct payment. Instead
of reducing state gasoline taxes by a couple
of pennies for a 10 percent ethanol blend,
the state paid 20 cents a gallon for ethanol
produced within the state. To encourage
the construction of many plants in different
parts of the state the incentive, which ran
for 10 years, applied only to the first 15 million
gallons produced.
The result? Minnesota became home to
14 small and medium-sized ethanol plants.
The scale of the plants encouraged farmer
ownership. As of 2002, 12 of the 14 plants
were owned by more than 9,000 farmers.
Because of the large number of plants
23
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
built, several engineering firms competed
with each other to design and build the
least expensive and most efficient facility.
Yields of ethanol in dry mills quickly rose
from 2.5 to over 2.8 gallons per bushel. The
large number of plants, coupled with equal
numbers of plants being built in surrounding
states accelerated the engineering and
operational learning curves.
One result was to rapidly reduce the
cost of ethanol produced from small dry
mills. Indeed, a 1998 study by USDA that
examined the comparative economics of
small and medium sized corn dry mills and
large wet mills showed how this dynamic
had occurred between 1987 and 1998. In
1987 small and mid sized dry mills had
cash operating costs that were higher than
those of large wet mills. By 1998 dry mills
had dropped their operating costs far below
those of wet mills. The 1998 report concluded,
“Wet mill variable costs appear to have
remained very stable at about 46 cents per
gallon. Improved energy cost management
was offset by several factors, including
waste management and overhead…In contrast,
dry mills have experienced a l5-percent
reduction in operating costs, due to the
effects of reduced energy, labor and maintenance
expenditures and possibly economy
of scale.”56
Public policy initiatives that resulted in
a large number of small and medium-sized
biorefineries could change the face and
structure of American (and perhaps world)
agriculture. A 50-billion gallon national market
for ethanol would support about 1,500
30-million gallon per year biorefineries.
This translates into one manufacturing facility
in every other county in the country.
Each biorefinery would serve local and
regional markets. Each would produce biochemicals
as well as biofuels. Assuming an
average of 400 local investors per facility,
some 600,000 households would have an
equity interest in these ventures.
Clearly the location and ownership
structure of the biorefineries will be more
concentrated than in this ideal scenario, but
it indicates the potential for widespread economic
development. Today only about 120
petroleum refineries are operating in the
United States, a significant drop in the last
20 years. On the other hand, there are over
85 biorefineries operating as of October
2003 and the number could exceed 100 by
the end of 2004.
A biorefinery has a very attractive local
economic impact because it buys its materials
locally and sells its product locally. A
majority of a biorefinery’s expenditures are
local while a majority of a petroleum refinery’s
expenditures leave the region. For
example, about 45 cents of the cost of a gallon
of gasoline produced in a refinery consists
of the cost of the crude oil, often
imported over long distances. On the other
hand, about 45 cents of the cost of ethanol
consists of the cost of the raw material, the
vast majority of which is gathered from an
area within 50 miles of the manufacturing
facility.
Local ownership of wind turbines and
ethanol plants will not occur inevitably. In
both cases the conventional dynamic would
be to build ever-larger wind farms of 100-
500 MW and ever-larger and absentee
owned ethanol plants with capacities of 100
million gallons and over. Currently ethanol
production is dominated by a single firm.
That firm, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM),
has repeatedly engaged in price fixing.
Enforcement of anti-trust rules is essential
to enable the biofuels market to become
competitive and dynamic. And federal policies
should offer incentives for medium
sized and locally owned wind farms and
biorefineries and disincentives for largeabsentee
owned conversion facilities.
The Path to Be Taken
The interest at all levels in dramatically
restructuring the energy foundation of our
transportation sector is unprecedented and
welcome. The introduction of high efficiency
hybrid electric vehicles offers a new technological
platform upon which to fashion
public policy. Such a strategy should have a
dual approach. One is to increase the electric-
only driving range of the vehicle by
increasing its electrical storage capacity
while encouraging the rapid expansion of
renewable transportation-using electricity.
The second focuses on increasing the
renewable energy portion of the fuels used
in the engine. Here biofuels using existing
internal combustion engines may have a significant
advantage over hydrogen fuel cells.
A dual renewable fuel approach (electricity
and biofuels) should also be
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
24
designed to maximize the economic and
social benefits to those who cultivate and
harness the fuels. Economic development
can and should be as important a goal as
improving environmental stewardship and
enhancing national security.
New Rules For a Sustainable
Transportation System
• To maximize the use of grid electricity
for transportation public policy should
offer incentives based on the electric-driving
range of a car.
• To maximize the use of renewable
electricity policy makers should raise state
Renewable Portfolio Standards that mandate
specific numerical goals for renewable
energy and adopt a national meaningful
RPS that does not preempt or undermine
state efforts.
• To maximize the use of biofuels policy
makers at the state and federal level
should adopt Renewable Fuel Standards
(RFS) to complement their RPS standards.
These would begin with a 10 percent standard.
The standard should encompass all
renewable fuels not just biofuels. Thus
renewable electricity for electric cars,
renewable hydrogen for fuel cell cars as
well as biofuels for internal combustion
engine cars would qualify.
• To enable biofuels to move beyond a
10 percent blend, policy makers should
require that all new vehicles have a flexiblefuel
capacity. This requirement should be
tied to the rapid construction of a nationwide
infrastructure of E85 fueling facilities.
• To enable biofuels to move beyond a
10 percent blend, policy makers should
accelerate the commercialization of cellulose-
to-ethanol plants. This involves financing
at least three commercial-sized facilities
testing different technological approaches
by 2008. It also involves research and development
into low cost and environmentally
benign ways to collect and store cellulose.
• To maximize rural economic development
federal and state incentives need to be
changed to encourage smaller, locally
owned biorefineries and wind turbines.
Adopting these policies will allow the
country to reduce its reliance on imported
oil while strengthening its rural economies
and reducing its energy-related pollutants.
It will also create a technological dynamic
that can be adopted by other countries that
might be poor in oil and coal and gas but
rich in wind and sunlight and plant matter.
It can also provide a new market for plant
matter that overcomes the present competition
between farmers around the world for
slow-growing food and feed markets that
has fueled international trade conflicts.
Hydrogen is a worthy energy storage
technology and the hydrogen economy is
an attractive vision. But there are other
strategies that can achieve a high efficiency,
renewable energy fueled transportation system
more quickly and at a far lower cost.
“Economic development
can and should be as
important a goal as
improving environmental
stewardship and enhancing
national security.”
25
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
Notes
1. The United States effort is not unique. The European
Commission has a handsomely funded European
Integrated Hydrogen Project. Japan’s hydrogen program
is better funded and more advanced than that of
the United States.
2. National Hydrogen Association,
www.hydrogenUS.org
3. Much of the demand for hydrogen is to convert
heavy crude oils to gasoline and jet fuel. As we
exhaust the supplies of light crude oil and shift toward
Venezuelan crude or Canadian tar sands oil the
demand for hydrogen for this purpose is expected to
expand substantially.
4. Power Economics, April 30, 2002.
5. Malcolm A. Weiss, et. al., On the Road in 2020: A
life Cycle Analysis of New Automobile Technologies,
MIT. Cambridge, MA. 2002. MIT El 00-003.
6. SolarAccess.com. News. May 1, 2003.
7. Duane B. Myers, et. al., Hydrogen from Renewable
Energy Sources, Directed Technologies, Arlington, VA.
October 2003. Notes that the cost of producing electricity
from wind and geothermal is about the same as
generating electricity using natural gas, the cost of producing
hydrogen from wind and geothermal is about
85 percent more than producing hydrogen from natural
gas.
8. Alex Brooks, EV World. December 5, 2002.
9. Alex Brooks, EV World. April 23, 2003.
10. Ulf Bossel, Baldur Eliasson, Gordon Taylor, The
Future of the Hydrogen Economy: Bright or Bleak?,
April 15, 2003. Final report
11. Ricardo Consulting Engineers, Carbon to Hydrogen
Roadmaps for Passenger Cars. British Department of
Transportation. 2003.
12. California Journal. February 1, 2003. A more
recent report by JD Powers projects a slower growth
as a result of announcements by American car companies
that they were delaying their previously
announced introduction of hybrids.
13. The 2004 Prius has EPA estimated 60 mpg city/51
highway, 55 combined. It has 15% more cargo space
than its predecessor.
14. At a price of 3 cents per kWh, electrolysis produces
hydrogen at a cost of $2.35 per gallon of gasoline
equivalent, excluding transportation and storage.
Several studies have estimated a price per kg of hydrogen
of over $4 per kg. Directed Technologies estimates
that with electricity produced in a Class 6 wind
regime the cost of hydrogen delivered 500 miles to the
station would be a little over $4 per kg of hydrogen,
excluding sales taxes and dispensing markup. The
analysis concludes that hydrogen produced from landfill
gas would cost about $2.75 per kg. William Leighty
has developed a detailed analysis in Transmitting 4000
MW of New Windpower from North Dakota to Chicago:
New HVDC Electric Lines or Hydrogen Pipeline. 2002.
With an effective wind electric price of 2.8 cents per
kWh Leighty estimates a cost in Chicago of the equivalent
of $2.89 a gallon. Including the local distribution
and fuel station costs, the retail price in Chicago would
be $3.68-4.34 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. See
also Duane B. Myers, et. al., Hydrogen from Renewable
Energy Sources, Directed Technologies, Arlington, VA.
October 2003
15. For example Leon Walters and Dave Wade,
Hydrogen Production from Nuclear Energy, Department
of Energy and Argonne National Laboratory,
November 12, 2002 compares the cost of hydrogen
and gasoline this way. The authors assume the vehicle
using hydrogen would be getting over 85 miles per gallon
of gasoline equivalent. The gasoline driven car, on
the other hand, would be getting 20 miles per gallon.
16. Malcolm A. Weiss, John B. Heywood, Andreas
Schafer, Vinod K. Natarajan, Comparative Assessment of
Fuel Cell Cars. MIT. January 2003
17. Ibid.
18. Fuel Cell Today. Fuel Cell Systems: A survey of
worldwide activity. Mark Cropper, Stefan Geiger, David
Jollie, November 5, 2003
19. Ibid.
20. Electronic Engineering. May 26, 2003.
21. “A Pivotal Juncture for Hybrids”, Indianapolis Star,
November 4, 2003
22. Comparing the Benefits and Impacts of Hybrid
Electric Vehicle Options. 1000349. Electric Power
Research Institute. Palo Alto, CA. 2001. July 2001.
23. Carbon to Hydrogen Roadmaps for Passenger
Cars. Op. Cit.
24. Bob Graham, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles.
Significant Market Potential. December 5, 2002. See
also Bob Graham, Comparing the Benefits and Impacts
of Hybrid Electric Vehicle Options. EPRI. Menlo Park,
California. July 2001.
25. If all manufacturers opt for building fuel cell powered
cars, about 2500 will be on the road by 2011,
about the same number of all-battery electric vehicles
on the road by 2000 as a result of the Zero Emissions
Vehicle program in California initiated in the early
1990s.
26. Dr. Menahem Andersman, Brief Assessment of
Progress in EV Battery Technology since the BTAP June
2000 Report. California Air Resources Board.
February 2003.
27. There are many stories that indicate that the car
companies' involvement in introducing electric vehicles
was half-hearted and even hostile. After GM increased
the range of its EV1 to 100 miles there were two-year
waiting lists but GM built only 500 models. GM ended
the program in 2003 and required all those leasing EV1s
to return them. One GM employee who was involved in
the electric vehicle initiative by GM remembers, “We
launched the car in December of 1996 and by about
April I figured we’d been duped. They weren’t marketing
the vehicle.” New York Times, October 22, 2003. Jerry
Martin, spokesman for the California Air Resources
Board recalls, the car companies and oil industry
“fought California’s electric car mandate…every way
you can think of”. Washington Post October 22, 2003.
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
26
28. Lous Browning, Mark Duvall, et. al, Advanced
Batteries for Electric-Drive Vehicles, March 25, 2003.
Electric Power Research Institute. Palo Alto, CA.
29. Donald R. Sadoway and Anne M. Mayes, Portable
Power: Advanced Rechargeable Lithium Batteries. MRS
Bulletin August 2002. Lithium ion polymer batteries
have another advantage. They can be molded into virtually
any form to fit the shape of any device even as
small as a credit car. The Electrofuel corporation’s
PowerPad 160, introduced in early 2000 for use by
owners of portable computers, weighs less than 2.2
pounds and gives up to 16 hours of power. It is 3/8
inches thick.
30. Press Release. November 5, 2003. www.acpropulsion.
com. The Beijing People Daily reports on the
development of Chinese lithium ion batteries that will
have a 200-mile charge range and be rechargeable in
under 10 minutes.
31. Reported by Alec Brooks, Perspectives on Fuel Cell
and Battery Electric Vehicles, Presentation to CARB
ZEV Workshop, December 5, 2002.
32. “the cost of grid connected HEV60 in a mature
market was estimated to range between $7,000 and
$10,200 per vehicle” more than a conventional gasoline
vehicle. Reducing California’s Petroleum Dependence.
Joint Agency Draft Report. California Energy
Commission and California Air Resources Board. July
2003. Sacramento, CA.
33. Alex Farrell and David Keith, Rethinking
Hydrogen Cars. Science Magazine, July 18, 2003
34. Steven Letendre, Christy Herig, Richard Perez,
Real Solar Cars. October 2003. A Chevrolet Cavalier,
for example, has 3.22 square meters of surface area
available for solar cells. At present efficiencies these
could generate 407 watts. Assuming a PV capacity factor
of 15% and .206 kWh per mile, the 526 kWh generated
could drive the car about 2550 miles.
35. Vehicle miles driven will undoubtedly increase as
will car ownership. But the key variable is the increase
in vehicle miles driven outside urban areas, since an
HEV60 will account for virtually all local driving.
36. There is a significant loss of mileage in E85 cars
because of the lower energy content of ethanol versus
gasoline. However, there is some indication that if the
flexible fueled cars were optimized for E85 or if there
were cars dedicated to E85 that the mileage difference
would be small. See Mark Stuhldreher, Research in
High-Efficiency Alcohol-Fueled Engines at EPA, U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency National Vehicle and
Fuel Emissions Laboratory. Ann Arbor, MI. February
25, 2003
37. Currently automobile companies can count each
flexible fueled car as the equivalent of a car with high
high fuel efficiency to comply with the CAFÉ standards.
This is what has driven car manufacturers to
include multi-fuel capacity. The incentive is provided
regardless of whether these cars actually run on biofuels.
The environmental community notes that as a
result this incentive perversely allows an increase in
pollution because car companies can build a gas guzzling
SUV for every flexible fueled car even when the
latter doesn’t use a drop of ethanol. There have been
proposals to modify the incentive for flexible fueled
vehicles to require that ethanol be available in those
markets.
38. In Brazil, where almost all cars run on ethanol
blends and at one time most ran on 100 percent
ethanol one company, working with GM, has introduced
an inexpensive and reliable multi-fuel technology.
Following the launch of the 1.8 liter flex-fuel
engine, GM Brazil announced that it is ending production
of its l.8 liter gasoline Corsa and only selling the
flex fueled engine Corsa. GM do Brasil plans to sell
flex fuel versions of all its cars. Fiat and Ford are
preparing to launch flex fuel cars in Brazil. Volkswagen
already has.
39. Environment and Energy Daily. April 7, 2003
40. Wired Online. October 22, 2003. Another estimate
by a private company puts the cost of a fueling station
facility, without the electrolyzer, at $150,000. Hydrogen
Energy Projects, HyGen Industries LLC. Topanga, CA.
2003.
41. The incentives are equivalent of 54 cents per gallon
for the ethanol since the tax exemption is on the whole
gallon of gasoline (a 5.4 cent exemption from the federal
excise tax) whereas ethanol is only 10 percent of
the gallon.
42. This section focuses on ethanol because it is a relatively
mature industry and an abundant feedstock is
available for its expansion. Fuels made out of vegetable
oils are coming into the market. Sales were about 30
million gallons in 2003. The energy bill offers a handsome
incentive for the production of biodiesel.
Biodiesel usually consist of a 2-20% vegetable oil blend
although trucks are currently running on 100 percent
vegetable oil. Sufficient oil crops and recycleable fats
and oils are available to displace about 20 percent of
diesel fuel. Further supplies might come from converting
cellulosic materials or animal wastes to oils.
43. Powerful Solutions: Seven Ways to Switch America
to Renewable Energy, Union for Concerned Scientists,
2001 citing James Cook, Jan Beyea, and Kathleen
Keeler, “Potential Impacts of Biomass Production in
the United States on Biological Diversity,” Annual
Review of Energy and the Environment, 16:401–431,
1991
27
THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY AND A PROPOSAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY
44. The amount of removal possible depends significantly
on the topography and soil quality of the farm.
For detailed analysis see Paul Gallagher, et. al.,
Biomass from Crop Residues: Cost and Supply
Estimates. Agricultural Economic Report Number 819.
United States Department of Agriculture. Washington,
D.C. March 2003. For breakdown of components of
the cellulosic waste stream and assumptions see David
Morris and Irshad Ahmed, The Carbohydrate Economy:
Making Chemicals and Industrial Materials from Plant
Matter. Institute for Local Self-Reliance. Minneapolis,
MN. August 2002.
45. Michael Wang, Hosein Shapouri, James Duffield,
The Energy Balance of Ethanol: An Update. National
Agricultural Statistics Service. USDA. August 2002.
Seungdo Kim and Bruce E. Dale, Allocation Procedure
in Ethanol Production System from Corn Grain,
Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. 2002. David Lorenz
and David Morris, How Much Energy Does It Take To
Make A Gallon Of Ethanol?. 1995 Institute for Local
Self-Reliance. For an analysis that concludes that the
net energy ratio is negative, see David Pimentel,
“Ethanol Fuels: Energy Balance, Economics and
Environmental Impacts are Negative.” Natural
Resources Research, Vol. 12, No. 2, June 2003. For a
detailed response see, Michael Graboski, Bruce
McClelland, “A Rebuttal to ‘Ethanol Fuels: Energy,
Economics and Environmental Impacts’, by D.
Pimentel”. Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO.
May 2002
46. “Talking Hydrogen with Margaret Mann”. The
Carbohydrate Economy. Institute for Local Self-
Reliance. Minneapolis, MN. Winter 2003. Another
study put the net energy ratio of wind to hydrogen at
22 to 1 and the ratio for natural gas to hydrogen at .7
to 1. Carolyn C. Elam, Catherine E. Gregoire Padro,
Pamela L. Spath, International Energy Activities,
Proceedings of the 2002 U.S. DOE Hydrogen Program
Review. NREL/CP-610-32405.
47. For an extended discussion of ethanol and air quality
see David Morris and Jack Brondum, Ethanol and
Ozone. Institute for Local Self-Reliance. Minneapolis,
MN. Sept. 25, 2000
48. Michael D. Jackson, Stefan Unnasch, Jennifer Pont.
The Impact of Alternative Fuels on Greenhouse Gas
Emissions—A ‘Well-to-Wheel’ Analysis. Reference
M7100. TIAX, Cupertino, CA. 2002. See also, Well-to-
Wheel Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of
Advanced Fuel/Vehicle Systems. North American
Analysis. General Motors, Argonne National
Laboratory, BP Amoco, ExxonMobil, Shell. April 2001.
Draft Final. Volume 1.
49. In Brazil 20 percent ethanol blends have been used
for decades. A 1977 paper by Furey and Jackson of
General Motors (No. 779008 delivered at the 12th
ICECEC meeting) showed that the volatility of ethanol
blends peaked near 5 percent levels. Ethanol itself has
a very low volatility, which is one of the reasons that
small quantities of higher volatility additives are used
in cars using a high ethanol percentage to enable cold
starts. Thus it is reasonable to expect reduced volatile
organic emissions at levels of ethanol above 25-30 percent.
A study by The Alliance, AIAM, Honda,
“Industry Low Sulfur Test Program” presented at the
California Air Resources Board workshop, 7/2001
shows that the NOx emissions were not affected by
higher levels of fuel oxygen for the most recent low
emitting vehicles and fuels that had low sulfur (30
ppm). The potential impact on air quality and human
health from increases in acetylaldehydes from using
large quantities of ethanol is also discussed. Modern
engines will be made ever-cleaner. Therefore all toxic
emissions will be very low. Also, the catalyst efficiency
impact of ethanol would be expected to help lower
acetylaldehyde emissions. Also of all the toxics
addressed in vehicle emissions regulations, acetylaldehyde
appears to be the least toxic, as indicated by
California’s regulations that estimate its potency at
0.016 relative to butadene, which is given a value of
1.0. See Staff Report on California RFG, California Air
Resources Board, April 22, 1994).
50. Michael D. Jackson, Stefan Unnasch, Jennifer Pont.
The Impact of Alternative Fuels on Greenhouse Gas
Emissions—A ‘Well-to-Wheel’ Analysis. Reference
M7100. TIAX, Cupertino, CA. 2002. See also, Well-to-
Wheel Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of
Advanced Fuel/Vehicle Systems. North American
Analysis. General Motors, Argonne National
Laboratory, BP Amoco, ExxonMobil, Shell. April 2001.
Draft Final. Volume 1.
51. See Louis Browning, Climate Change. International
Vehicle Technology Symposium. ICF Consulting. Inc.
March 12, 2003.
52. Irshad Ahmed and David Morris, Replacing
Petrochemicals with Biochemicals: A Pollution
Prevention Strategy for the Great Lakes Region. Institute
for Local Self-Reliance. Minneapolis, MN. 1994
53. Associated Press. March 24, 2003.
54. Several ethanol facilities in Minneapolis report dividends
as high as $1 a bushel for the past several years.
This compares to a price of corn of about $2 per
bushel.
55. Hosein Shapouri, Paul Gallagher and Michael S.
Graboski, USDA’s 1998 Ethanol Cost-of-Production
Survey. USDA. Washington, D.C. 1998.

Global warming

2009-03-13T04:35:00.000-07:00

Willie Soon* and Sallie Baliunas
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge
MA 02138, USA
The role of General Circulation Models (GCMs) has become predominantly important
as the practical interest in regional impacts from anthropogenic greenhouse gases such
as carbon dioxide (CO2) grows. This first report documents the quality of GCMs as a
tool for describing and predicting ‘global warming’ and the related geographical
pattern of climate change from the CO2 added to Earth’s atmosphere.
I Validation problems in climate modelling and General Circulation Models (GCMs)
Quantification of the impact of anthropogenic CO2 forcing, as well as its connection to
global warming and other natural or man-made climatic forcings, requires validation of
GCMs and reduction of their common deficiencies in simulating important climatic
variables. Recent reviews (Palmer, 2001; Pielke, 2001; Soon et al., 2001; Munk, 2002;
Pittock, 2002; van der Veen, 2002) call for a more comprehensive consideration of
nonlinear processes to describe the interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, land
and ice-covered surfaces. Those media, the reviewers argue, must be treated as
interactive, rather than mere unchanging surfaces or reservoirs, in order to progress in
the study of year-to-year and century-long climate change on both regional and global
scales (i.e., as distinct from the problem of weather prediction). The enormity and
urgency of the scientific task, with modern societal needs for coping with climate
change regardless of the added concerns about anthropogenic CO2 forcing, has led
Pielke (2001: 313), among others, to remind us that ‘there have been no model
experiments to assess climate prediction in which all important atmosphere–ocean–
land surface processes were included’. Observational capability must also advance significantly
before climate model validation can reach the next level of maturity (Goody
et al., 2002). Robust long-term monitoring of key climate quantities such as thermal and
dynamical outputs of the Sun (Parker, 2000), spectrally resolved infrared radiance
(Keith and Anderson, 2001), cloud properties (Wang et al., 2000; Rossow et al., 2002),
Progress in Physical Geography 27,3 (2003) pp. 448–455
© Arnold 2003 10.1191/0309133303pp391pr
*Author for correspondence. E-mail: wsoon@cfa.harvard.edu
surface radiative energy fluxes (Wild et al., 2001), mass balance of glaciers (Dyurgerov,
2002; van der Veen, 2002), sea ice thickness (Holloway and Sou, 2002; Preller et al., 2002)
and even a global mass-distribution constraint such as Earth’s mean dynamic
oblateness parameter J2 (Cox and Chao, 2002) would be important improvements.
II Simulations of climate variables
The current generation of GCMs have shown serious gaps and systematic deficiencies
in calculating both regional and global changes for many variables such as temperature,
precipitation, cloud properties and important oceanic variables, including oceanic
circulation, pattern of sea surface temperature, as well as sea surface elevation (sealevel)
and bottom pressure (Palmer, 2001; Pielke, 2001; Soon et al., 2001; Munk, 2002;
Schneider, E.K., 2002; van der Veen, 2002; Huang and Jin, 2002; Davey et al., 2002).
1 Temperature
As noted by Johnson (1997), the appearance of the 1990 Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) report (Houghton et al., 1990) marked the recognition that all
GCMs suffer from ‘the general coldness problem’, which is particularly acute in the
lower tropical troposphere (below 500 mb) and upper polar troposphere (above 500
mb). The general coldness problem is seen in 104 out of the 105 outcomes, covering the
entire troposphere, from 35 different simulations by 14 climate models. The ubiquitous
cold-bias problem persists to date, as shown in the collection of GCM simulations
compared with observed stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures in Pawson et al.
(2000).
Johnson (1997) suggested that the origin of the cold bias arises from an extreme
sensitivity of GCMs to systematic, aphysical entropy sources introduced by spurious
numerical diffusion, Gibbs oscillations or inadequate sub-grid-scale parameterizations.
Johnson estimated that a temperature bias of 10°C may be expected from only a 4%
error in modelling net heat flux that is linked to any number of aphysical entropy
sources, including those owing to numerical problems with the transport and phase
changes of water in vapor, liquid or ice, and the spurious mixing of moist, static energy.
A follow-on study by Johnson et al. (2000) shed further light on how the cold bias
associated with spurious, positive-definite entropy contaminates the computation of
hydrologic and chemical processes by virtue of their strong inherent dependence on
temperature. Johnson et al., estimated that the error in saturation-specific humidity
doubles for every 10°C increase in temperature. Johnson (1997: 2842) further stressed
that ‘erroneous sources of entropy in atmosphere and ocean models differ in both origin
and intensity. Efforts in coupled climate modeling to simulate accurately energy
exchange across the mutual atmosphere–ocean interface will be extremely difficult . . .
The implication is that atmospheric and oceanic energy balances within coupled
climate models that do not require flux adjustment are suspect’.
W. Soon and S. Baliunas 449
450 Global warming
2 Precipitation
Soden (2000) documented the inability of some 30 different atmospheric GCMs in the
Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP) to reproduce faithfully
interannual changes in precipitation over the Tropics (30°N to 30°S). Good agreement
was found between observations and the GCMs’ simulations of atmospheric water
vapour content, tropospheric temperature at 200 mb and outgoing longwave radiation.
However, observations and model simulations of precipitation and net downward
longwave radiation at the surface disagreed. Considering the direct association of latent
heat release by precipitation from moist air to the warming and cooling of the
atmosphere, Soden (2000) noted that the good agreement between the observed and
modelled temperature at 200 mb is surprising, given simultaneously the large
difference between the observed and modelled precipitation fields. One explanation for
the good temperature agreement at 200 mb is that it could be fortuitous because the
atmospheric GCMs were forced with observed sea surface temperatures. Meanwhile,
the modeled interannual variabilities of the hydrologic cycle, seriously underestimated
by a factor of three to four (Soden, 2000), correctly diagnose miscalculation of the precipitation
fields. Based on the models’ relatively constant values of downward
longwave radiation reaching the surface (see Wild et al., 2001 for further quantitative
comparisons around the globe), Soden (2000) points to possible systematic errors in
current GCM representations of low-lying boundary-layer clouds. However, the study
cannot exclude the possibility of errors in algorithms that retrieve precipitation data
from satellite observations, which would emphasize the need for improved precipitation
data products.
3 Clouds
Wielicki et al. (2002) offered observational evidence for large decadal variability of the
tropical mean radiative energy budget of the past two decades, which may be explained
by independently observed changes in tropical mean cloudiness. More significantly,
those results highlighted ‘the critical need to improve cloud modeling’ because several
GCMs failed to simulate that large observed variability in the tropical energy budget.
Grabowski (2000) emphasized the importance of proper evaluation of the effects of
cloud microphysics on tropical climate by using models that directly resolve mesoscale
dynamics. Grabowski pointed out that the main effect of cloud microphysics is on the
ocean surface rather than directly on atmospheric processes. Because of the great
mismatch between the timescales of oceanic and atmospheric dynamics, Grabowski
was pessimistic about quantifying the relation between cloud microphysics and tropical
climate. The parameterizations of cloud microphysics and cloud formation processes,
as well as their interactions with other variables of the ocean and atmosphere, remain
major challenges.
4 Ocean thermodynamics and dynamics: tropical ocean climatology and the stability
of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC)
In a systematic comparison of the performance of 23 dynamical ocean–atmosphere
W. Soon and S. Baliunas 451
models, Davey et al. (2002: 418) found that ‘no single model is consistent with observed
behaviour in the tropical ocean regions . . . as the model biases are large and gross errors
are readily apparent’. Without flux adjustment, most models produced annual mean
equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific that are too cold by 2–3°C.
All GCMs except one simulated the wrong sign of the east–west SST gradient in the
equatorial Atlantic. The GCMs also incorrectly simulate the seasonal climatology in all
ocean sectors and its interannual variability in the Pacific ocean; surface wind stress is
diagnosed as the key parameter leading to those poor outcomes. The shortfall in
interannual variability is more pronounced for zonal wind stress than for SST.
Schneider, E.K. (2002) made the first progress in isolating and understanding specific
intramodel and intermodel disagreements in the simulations of the equatorial Pacific
ocean climatology and variability by using various flux-corrected experiments.
Russell and Rind (1999) noted that despite a global warming of 1.4°C around the time
of CO2 doubling, large regional coolings of up to 4°C were forecasted in both the North
Atlantic Ocean (56–80°N, 35°W–45°E) and South Pacific (near the Ross Sea, 60–72°S,
165°E–115°W) because meridional poleward heat transfer was reduced over the North
Atlantic and local convection was suppressed over the South Pacific. However, Russell
et al. (2000) subsequently demonstrated that their GCM predicted unreliable regional
changes over the Southern Ocean because of the model’s excessive sea ice variability.
Another GCM’s high-latitude Southern Ocean suffers from a large, unphysical drift
(Cai and Gordon, 1999). For example, within 100 years of coupling the atmosphere to
the ocean, the modeled Antarctic Circumpolar Current artificially intensified by 30 Sv
(from 157 to 187 Sv) despite the use of flux adjustments. Cai and Gordon identified the
instability of convection patterns in the Southern Ocean of the GCM to be the primary
cause of that large drift.
The reasons for the projected weakening of the North Atlantic THC in various models
remain unclear because, as Mikolajewicz and Voss (2000) caution, the GCMs give
contrasting roles to individual atmospheric and oceanic fluxes of heat, moisture,
salinity and momentum. Thus, although a complete breakdown of the North Atlantic
THC is predicted for sufficiently strong CO2 forcing in some simulations (Schmittner
and Stocker, 1999, Rahmstorf, 2000), Wood et al. (1999) and Mikolajewicz and Voss
(2000) cautioned that the predicted changes of the THC are very sensitive to parameterizations
of various components of the hydrologic cycle, including precipitation,
evapouration and river runoff. For example, without a perpetually enhanced influx of
freshwater (from any source) or extreme CO2 forcing, the transient decrease in THC
overturning eventually recovers as time progresses in the model (Mikolajewicz and
Voss, 2000; Holland et al., 2000). In addition, when a dynamic sea ice module is included
in a coupled atmosphere–ocean model, Holland et al. (2000) report a reduction (rather
than an enlargement) in the variance of the THC overturning flowrate under the
doubled CO2 condition, down to 0.25 Sv2 (or only 7% of value simulated for presentday
forcing) from the high value of 3.6 Sv2 simulated under the present-day forcing
level.
Furthermore, Latif et al. (2000) reported a new stabilization mechanism that counters
previous expectations of a CO2-induced THC weakening. Latif et al.,’s state-of-the-art
coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM of the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie at
Hamburg (MPI) resolves the tropical oceans at a meridional scale of 0.5º, rather than the
more typical scale of 2–6º, and produces no weakening of the THC when forced by
452 Global warming
increasing CO2. Latif et al. showed that anomalously high salinities in the tropical
Atlantic, produced by excess freshening through the remote forcing at the equatorial
Pacific, were advected poleward to the sinking region of the THC. The effect was
sufficient to compensate for the local increase in freshwater influx at North Atlantic.
Updated experiments for a similar CO2 forcing scenario by Gent (2001) and Sun and
Bleck (2001) also confirm the relative stability of the THC because of compensating
effects among thermal perturbation, changes in surface hydrology and salinity.
Therefore, sophisticated GCMs results are consistent with both a stable and unstable
North Atlantic THC under a future high CO2 radiative forcing scenario. Latif et al.
(2000) concluded that the response of THC to enhanced greenhouse warming is still an
open question, and Gent (2001) reiterated that estimating the response of the THC in the
twenty-first century, important as the question may be, is ‘a very demanding question
to ask of current state-of-the-art coupled climate models’.
III The incorrect fingerprint of CO2 forcing in GCMs
No GCM has successfully simulated the observed relative warming trend of the surface
layer compared with the low troposphere. All GCMs consistently predict that the
troposphere should warm faster than surface air when radiative forcing is enhanced by
CO2 (Bengtsson et al., 1999). Santer et al. (2001) confirmed that the wrong fingerprint is
observed compared with that expected from CO2 forcing on the atmosphere. GCMs
simulate trend differences of surface-minus-lower troposphere temperature significantly
smaller than the observed results for 51 out of 54 simulations examined, even for
best-effort attempts to account for trend biases introduced by effects of volcanoes and
El-Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Some theoretical proposals expect a warming of the surface relative to the lower
troposphere because of nonlinear climate dynamics (Corti et al., 1999). That expectation
is because of the differential surface response with the pattern of Cold Ocean and Warm
Land (COWL) that becomes increasingly unimportant with distance from the surface
(see Soon et al., 2001, for additional explanation). Nevertheless, no GCM has incorporated
such an idea into an operationally robust simulation of the climate system
response to greenhouse effects from added CO2. This incorrect forecast of the
fingerprint of carbon dioxide forcing on the surface and atmosphere temperature needs
resolution.
IV Summary
Climate models are now being used extensively to diagnose the causative, especially
anthropogenic, factors of observed climatic changes of the past few decades (Palmer,
2001; Stott et al., 2001; Thorne et al., 2002). These models are also used to make long-term
climate projections and climate risk assessments based on future anthropogenic forcing
scenarios (Saunders, 1999; Palmer, 2001; Houghton et al., 2001; Pittock, 2002; Schneider,
S.H., 2002). Many such exercises help to shape public policy recommendations
concerning future energy use and various ‘climate protection’ measures in order to
prevent ‘dangerous climate impacts’ (e.g., Schneider, S.H., 2002; O’Neill and
W. Soon and S. Baliunas 453
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Global Fingerprints of Greenhouse Warming

2009-03-13T04:33:00.000-07:00

A Summary of Recent Scientific Research
In the past two years the science attributing global warming to human enhancement of the greenhouse effect has progressed dramatically. New measurements show that climate change and its impacts have occurred globally, rather than regionally, which is readily explained by global warming, and not by natural regional variations. Many changes that have been predicted by models are now occurring, and the observed pattern of change points to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Hence, there has been much progress in identifying fingerprints of climate change driven by greenhouse gases. Fingerprints are changes that show a certain pattern that is unique to a specific climate-change driver.
1. Attribution of global warming to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Scientists have tested alternate hypotheses of natural vs. anthropogenic (human-caused) forces to explain how climate has changed over the past century or more. Two recent studies illustrate the state of this science, but represent only a small fraction of the studies that have produced comparable results.
Physical simulation of 20th-Century surface warming. A study (Meehl et al. 2004. Journal of Climate 17:3721-3727) by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research examined the contributions of a variety of natural (solar, volcanoes) and anthropogenic (GHG, ozone, sulfate aerosols) driving factors in changing global surface temperature, comparing results from models, with and without the various hypothesized driving factors, with observed changes over the 20th Century. A graph of global surface temperature over the past century shows a crooked line that can be thought of as a fingerprint. Any climate driver fed into a model must match this fingerprint to qualify as a likely cause of observed warming. Potential drivers that do not improve the match to the fingerprint are deemed unlikely to be significant to the observed changes. This is a type of experimental hypothesis testing, which requires many samples. Since there is only one planet Earth, models provide simulated earths for comparison. The objective of the study was to determine which drivers, or combinations of them, allowed the model results to match the fingerprint of actual surface warming. The best fit of the model output to the observed data was produced when all of the driving factors were included, indicating that both natural and anthropogenic factors were involved. But different factors contributed differently over time. Anthropogenic factors were relatively unimportant during the first few decades of the 20th Century, but changes in solar energy and volcanic activity were. During the last half of the 20th Century, the largest contribution to the fingerprint by far was from anthropogenic greenhouse gases. These and many other results directly contradict skeptical claims that models fail to mimic observed changes.
Physical simulation of heat penetration into the ocean. Scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Lawrence Livermore National Lab, the UK’s Hadley Center, and NCAR published a study showing six oceans (N. Atlantic, S. Atlantic, N. Indian, S. Indian, N. Pacific, S. Pacific) are warming simultaneously as a result of enhanced greenhouse warming (Barnett et al. Science 309:284-287). Natural temperature variations occur at different times, and often in direct opposite patterns, in different oceans. This type of change is called internal variability, and it results simply from transporting heat from one place to another,
1
but it adds no new heat. A big challenge for assigning a cause to temperature changes is distinguishing internal variability from external forcing, which adds new heat to the system. This study demonstrates that the six oceans that circle the globe, straddling the equator, have been warming simultaneously for at least the past 40 years, which requires external forcing. The data show that the oceans have been warming from the surface downward and that heat penetration with depth varies from ocean to ocean, providing a fingerprint that drivers in a model must match. Modeling of internal variability alone did not produce temperature profiles that matched this fingerprint, whereas combining internal variability with the effects of greenhouse gases did. Using a different approach from the study by Meehl et al. (described above), scientists again found that observed patterns of climate change could only be mimicked by including anthropogenic greenhouse gases as a climate driver.
Physical simulation of the increasing height of the tropopause. The tropopause is a region of the atmosphere that separates the lower atmosphere (troposphere) from the upper atmosphere (stratosphere). Its height is determined by physical conditions, including the temperature of the troposphere below and the stratosphere above. Factors that either warm the troposphere or cool the stratosphere increase the tropopause height, whereas those that cool the troposphere or warm the stratosphere decrease tropopause height. Scientists from the US, UK, and Germany teamed up to test whether they could simulate observed changes in the height of the tropopause based on changes in natural climate drivers (solar radiation and volcanic particles) and/or anthropogenic drivers (decreases in the stratospheric ozone layer and greenhouse gases in the troposphere) (Santer et al. 2003. Science 301:479-483; Santer et al. 2004. Journal of Geophysical Research 109:D21104). Observations revealed a 620-foot increase in tropopause height between 1979 and 2001. The scientists obtained a similar increase in the simulated tropopause height when their model included both anthropogenic greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion (from man-made chemicals). About 40% of the effect was from greenhouse gases and 60% from ozone depletion. Including natural variability of solar input and volcanic emissions in the model had little effect on this outcome, suggesting that enhanced greenhouse warming and depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer were the main causes of global tropospheric height increase. Because of the Montreal Protocol, ozone-depleting chemicals will decline in the future. However, the model predicted that tropopause elevation would continue in the future, because anthropogenic greenhouse gases will continue to rise. This prediction gives scientists an indicator for monitoring future climate change.
2. Linking major climate change impacts with global warming. In recent years, several important impacts have been observed that are readily explained by human-induced global warming. In some cases, global warming plus regional variability combine to produce impacts, but natural variability alone cannot explain the observations.
Global ice cover – In recent years glaciologists and oceanographers have been surprised by the unprecedented rates of change in global ice cover, both for Arctic sea ice and land-based glaciers and ice sheets. 2
Greenland: The second largest land-based ice sheet, with enough water to raise the global sea level by 6 meters if melted, covers the Greenland continent. Fifteen years ago, glaciologists believed that the Greenland ice sheet was in balance (i.e. not losing or gaining ice). Over the past decade, glaciologists documented rapid melting around the coasts of Greenland and adjusted their estimates to reflect a net loss of ice due to melting. In February 2006, new satellite-based measurements of ice flow were published, revealing that Greenland is losing ice even more rapidly than realized as a result of ice flowing into the sea at high rates. This work doubled the estimated rate of ice loss from Greenland and its contribution to the rate of global sea level rise (Rignot et al. 2006. Science 311:986-990). Antarctic ice sheet. Western Antarctica is losing ice rapidly. Until recently, East Antarctica was thought be gaining ice, but now is thought to be just in balance, such that future warming could quickly shift it to net ice loss. Overall, Antarctica appears to have lost about 450 km3 of ice, roughly the volume of Lake Erie, in the past three years (Velicogna. 2006. Science Online, March 2). Because these results are from the GRACE satellites launched in 2002, we do not know how long Antarctica has been losing ice. Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea level by 70 m if melted. Arctic sea ice: Arctic sea ice is being lost at an unprecedented rate, reaching a record low area during summer 2005. Some scientists estimate that by the end of the 21st Century the Arctic Ocean will be completely free of ice during the summer, a condition that probably has not existed for at least a million years (Overpeck et al. 2005. EOS 86:309-312). This loss of ice has important implications for global climate change and for Arctic ecosystems and wildlife (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. 2005. Cambridge Univ. Press, New York).
Mountain glaciers. For several decades, glaciologists have documented a continuing worldwide loss of mountain glaciers, which continue to dwindle at an accelerating rate (Dyurgerov. 2006. AAAS Symposium, St. Louis; Dyurgerov, 2005. INSAAR Occasional Paper No. 58, Univ. of Colorado). Billions of people around the world depend solely on glaciers for their water supply. In Central Asia, mountain glaciers are retreating rapidly and may be virtually gone within decades, creating a billion environmental refugees (V. Aizen, 2006. AAAS Symposium, St. Louis).
The global trend. There is a clear pattern of globally distributed loss of ice indicative of global greenhouse warming, and not isolated regional losses of ice resulting from natural regional variability, as some skeptics claim. While some regions of the globe may presently be in a phase of natural warming, in addition to enhanced greenhouse warming, other regions are in natural cooling phases that will also reverse at some point. Hence, the overall loss of ice is a fingerprint of global warming.
Hurricanes – In 2005, two independent studies found that hurricanes were becoming more intense worldwide (Emanuel, 2005. Nature 436:686-688; Webster et al. 2005. Science 309:1844-1846). All oceans where tropical cyclones develop showed this change in recent decades. Immediately, skeptics responded that this upswing resulted from natural variability, rather than from greenhouse warming. However, they overlooked the well-established knowledge that natural cycles do not occur in sync
3
across the various basins. In fact, they tend to vary in opposite phases, for instance, in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. The existence of a trend of intensification in all six of the tropical cyclone-producing ocean basins thus represents a fingerprint of global warming, consistent with the enhanced greenhouse effect and not with natural variability alone.
Species changes – Two recent studies have documented apparent connections between changes in species and anthropogenic climate change. One study (Root et al. 2005. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102:7465-7469) found that 130 species, including many different plants and animals, have responded to earlier spring temperatures between 1970 and 2000 with such changes as the timing of flowering or migration. The strength of this study was that it linked these changes statistically to a climate model, demonstrating that the relationship between the timing of spring biological events was well correlated with greenhouse gas-driven climate change but not with natural variability alone. The species were located throughout Europe, North America, and Asia, thus representing a large portion of the Northern Hemisphere and not a particular region. Hence, the same type of response occurred regardless of differences in regional climate variability. The correlation with greenhouse gas-driven climate change demonstrates that this global response can be explained by enhanced greenhouse warming but not by natural climate variability alone. A second study (Pounds et al. 2006. Nature 439:161-167) linked widespread mass amphibian extinctions in the tropics to the timing of climate change events associated with sea-surface and atmospheric temperatures. Warm years, which have become more frequent over time, are followed closely by extinctions in proportion to the degree of warming. Also, the majority of recorded extinctions are associated with warm years. Although extinction rates correlate with the large-scale warming trend, they do not correlate with local variability associated with regional El Nino events, once again demonstrating that a global trend, rather than regional variability, is the more likely explanation for the impact. The authors explained this relationship as a function of disease outbreaks fostered by the observed warming and moistening trend in tropical mountain environments as a result of climate change. The disease-causing organisms, a type of fungus called chytrids, have moved up the mountainsides as the climate has become warmer and wetter. So not only do we see species extinctions as a result of human-induced climate change, but also the migration of disease-causing organisms to new habitats.
Compiled by Jay Gulledge, PhD
Senior Research Fellow on Science and Impacts
Pew Center on Global Climate Change

ENERGY &

2009-03-12T22:15:00.000-07:00

MULTI-SCIENCE PUBLISHING CO. LTD.
5 Wates Way, Brentwood, Essex CM15 9TB, United Kingdom
Reprinted from
ENERGY &
ENVIRONMENT
VOLUME 18 No. 7+8 2007
GLOBAL WARMING: FORECASTS BY SCIENTISTS
VERSUS SCIENTIFIC FORECASTS
by
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
GLOBAL WARMING: FORECASTS BY SCIENTISTS
VERSUS SCIENTIFIC FORECASTS*
Kesten C. Green1 and J. Scott Armstrong2†
1Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia.
Contact: PO Box 10800, Wellington 6143, New Zealand. kesten@kestencgreen.com;
T +64 4 976 3245; F +64 4 976 3250
2The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania 747 Huntsman,
Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu
ABSTRACT
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a
panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the
United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report.
The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world
temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted
temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are
these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no”.
To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one
would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature
changes, and (3) the effects of feasible alternative policies. Proper forecasts of all
three are necessary for rational policy making.
The IPCC WG1 Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term
forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved
in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references
in the 1056-page Report to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods
despite the fact these are conveniently available in books, articles, and websites. We
audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report
to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found
enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting
principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles.
Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical.
The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In
effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and
obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’
predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We
have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that
the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder.
Keywords: accuracy, audit, climate change, evaluation, expert judgment,
mathematical models, public policy.
997
*Neither of the authors received funding for this paper.
†Information about J. Scott Armstrong can be found on Wikipedia.
“A trend is a trend,
But the question is, will it bend?
Will it alter its course
Through some unforeseen force
And come to a premature end?”
Alec Cairncross, 1969
Research on forecasting has been conducted since the 1930s. Empirical studies that
compare methods in order to determine which ones provide the most accurate
forecasts in specified situations are the most useful source of evidence. Findings, along
with the evidence, were first summarized in Armstrong (1978, 1985). In the mid-
1990s, the Forecasting Principles Project was established with the objective of
summarizing all useful knowledge about forecasting. The knowledge was codified as
evidence-based principles, or condition-action statements, in order to provide
guidance on which methods to use when. The project led to the Principles of
Forecasting handbook (Armstrong 2001): the work of 40 internationally-known
experts on forecasting methods and 123 reviewers who were also leading experts on
forecasting methods. The summarizing process alone required a four-year effort.
The forecasting principles are easy to find: They are freely available on
forecastingprinciples.com, a site sponsored by the International Institute of
Forecasters. The Forecasting Principles site has been at the top of the list of sites in
Internet searches for “forecasting” for many years. A summary of the principles,
currently numbering 140, is provided as a checklist in the Forecasting Audit software
available on the site. The site is often updated in order to incorporate new evidence on
forecasting as it comes to hand. A recent review of new evidence on some of the key
principles was published in Armstrong (2006). There is no other source that provides
evidence-based forecasting principles.
The strength of evidence is different for different principles, for example some
principles are based on common sense or received wisdom. Such principles are
included when there is no contrary evidence. Other principles have some empirical
support, while 31 are strongly supported by empirical evidence.
Many of the principles go beyond common sense, and some are counter-intuitive.
As a result, those who forecast in ignorance of the forecasting research literature are
unlikely to produce useful predictions. Here are some well-established principles that
apply to long-term forecasts for complex situations where the causal factors are
subject to uncertainty (as with climate):
• Unaided judgmental forecasts by experts have no value. This applies whether
the opinions are expressed in words, spreadsheets, or mathematical models. It
applies regardless of how much scientific evidence is possessed by the experts.
Among the reasons for this are:
a) Complexity: People cannot assess complex relationships through
unaided observations.
b) Coincidence: People confuse correlation with causation.
c) Feedback: People making judgmental predictions typically do not
998 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
receive unambiguous feedback they can use to improve
their forecasting.
d) Bias: People have difficulty in obtaining or using evidence that
contradicts their initial beliefs. This problem is especially
serious for people who view themselves as experts.
• Agreement among experts is weakly related to accuracy. This is especially true
when the experts communicate with one another and when they work together
to solve problems, as is the case with the IPCC process.
• Complex models (those involving nonlinearities and interactions) harm
accuracy because their errors multiply. Ascher (1978), refers to the Club of
Rome’s 1972 forecasts where, unaware of the research on forecasting, the
developers proudly proclaimed, “in our model about 100,000 relationships are
stored in the computer.” Complex models also tend to fit random variations in
historical data well, with the consequence that they forecast poorly and lead to
misleading conclusions about the uncertainty of the outcome. Finally, when
complex models are developed there are many opportunities for errors and the
complexity means the errors are difficult to find. Craig, Gadgil, and Koomey
(2002) came to similar conclusions in their review of long-term energy forecasts
for the US that were made between 1950 and 1980.
• Given even modest uncertainty, prediction intervals are enormous. Prediction
intervals (ranges outside which outcomes are unlikely to fall) expand rapidly as
time horizons increase, for example, so that one is faced with enormous intervals
even when trying to forecast a straightforward thing such as automobile sales for
General Motors over the next five years.
• When there is uncertainty in forecasting, forecasts should be conservative.
Uncertainty arises when data contain measurement errors, when the series are
unstable, when knowledge about the direction of relationships is uncertain, and
when a forecast depends upon forecasts of related (causal) variables. For
example, forecasts of no change were found to be more accurate than trend
forecasts for annual sales when there was substantial uncertainty in the trend
lines (Schnaars and Bavuso 1986). This principle also implies that forecasts
should revert to long-term trends when such trends have been firmly established,
do not waver, and there are no firm reasons to suggest that they will change.
Finally, trends should be damped toward no-change as the forecast horizon
increases.
THE FORECASTING PROBLEM
In determining the best policies to deal with the climate of the future, a policy maker
first has to select an appropriate statistic to use to represent the changing climate. By
convention, the statistic is the averaged global temperature as measured with
thermometers at ground stations throughout the world, though in practice this is a far
from satisfactory metric (see, e.g., Essex et al., 2007).
It is then necessary to obtain forecasts and prediction intervals for each of the
following:
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 999
1. Mean global temperature in the long-term (say 10 years or longer).
2. Effects of temperature changes on humans and other living things.
If accurate forecasts of mean global temperature can be obtained and the
changes are substantial, then it would be necessary to forecast the effects of the
changes on the health of living things and on the health and wealth of humans.
The concerns about changes in global mean temperature are based on the
assumption that the earth is currently at the optimal temperature and that
variations over years (unlike variations within days and years) are undesirable.
For a proper assessment, costs and benefits must be comprehensive. (For
example, policy responses to Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring should have been
based in part on forecasts of the number of people who might die from malaria
if DDT use were reduced).
3. Costs and benefits of feasible alternative policy proposals.
If valid forecasts of the effects of the temperature changes on the health of living
things and on the health and wealth of humans can be obtained and the forecasts
are for substantial harmful effects, then it would be necessary to forecast the
costs and benefits of proposed alternative policies that could be successfully
implemented.
A policy proposal should only be implemented if valid and reliable forecasts of the
effects of implementing the policy can be obtained and the forecasts show net benefits.
Failure to obtain a valid forecast in any of the three areas listed above would render
forecasts for the other areas meaningless. We address primarily, but not exclusively,
the first of the three forecasting problems: obtaining long-term forecasts of global
temperature.
But is it necessary to use scientific forecasting methods? In other words, to use
methods that have been shown by empirical validation to be relevant to the types of
problems involved with climate forecasting? Or is it sufficient to have leading
scientists examine the evidence and make forecasts? We address this issue before
moving on to our audits.
ON THE VALUE OF FORECASTS BY EXPERTS
Many public policy decisions are based on forecasts by experts. Research on
persuasion has shown that people have substantial faith in the value of such forecasts.
Faith increases when experts agree with one another.
Our concern here is with what we refer to as unaided expert judgments. In such
cases, experts may have access to empirical studies and other information, but they use
their knowledge to make predictions without the aid of well-established forecasting
principles. Thus, they could simply use the information to come up with judgmental
forecasts. Alternatively, they could translate their beliefs into mathematical statements
(or models) and use those to make forecasts.
Although they may seem convincing at the time, expert forecasts can make for
humorous reading in retrospect. Cerf and Navasky’s (1998) book contains 310 pages
of examples, such as Fermi Award-winning scientist John von Neumann’s 1956
prediction that “A few decades hence, energy may be free”. Examples of expert
1000 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
climate forecasts that turned out to be completely wrong are easy to find, such as UC
Davis ecologist Kenneth Watt’s prediction in a speech at Swarthmore College on Earth
Day, April 22, 1970:
If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder in 1990, but
eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to
put us into an ice age.
Are such examples merely a matter of selective perception? The second author’s
review of empirical research on this problem led him to develop the “Seer-sucker
theory,” which can be stated as “No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not
exist, seers will find suckers” (Armstrong 1980). The amount of expertise does not
matter beyond a basic minimum level. There are exceptions to the Seer-sucker Theory:
When experts get substantial well-summarized feedback about the accuracy of their
forecasts and about the reasons why their forecasts were or were not accurate, they can
improve their forecasting. This situation applies for short-term (up to five day)
weather forecasts, but we are not aware of any such regime for long-term global
climate forecasting. Even if there were such a regime, the feedback would trickle in
over many years before it became useful for improving forecasting.
Research since 1980 has provided much more evidence that expert forecasts are of
no value. In particular, Tetlock (2005) recruited 284 people whose professions
included, “commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends.” He
asked them to forecast the probability that various situations would or would not
occur, picking areas (geographic and substantive) within and outside their areas of
expertise. By 2003, he had accumulated over 82,000 forecasts. The experts barely if at
all outperformed non-experts and neither group did well against simple rules.
Comparative empirical studies have routinely concluded that judgmental
forecasting by experts is the least accurate of the methods available to make forecasts.
For example, Ascher (1978, p. 200), in his analysis of long-term forecasts of electricity
consumption found that was the case.
Experts’ forecasts of climate changes have long been newsworthy and a cause of
worry for people. Anderson and Gainor (2006) found the following headlines in their
search of the New York Times:
Sept. 18, 1924 MacMillan Reports Signs of New Ice Age
March 27, 1933 America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776
May 21, 1974 Scientists Ponder Why World’s Climate is Changing:
A Major Cooling Widely Considered to be Inevitable
Dec. 27, 2005 Past Hot Times Hold Few Reasons to Relax About New
Warming
In each case, the forecasts behind the headlines were made with a high degree of
confidence.
In the mid-1970s, there was a political debate raging about whether the global climate
was changing. The United States’ National Defense University (NDU) addressed this
issue in their book, Climate Change to the Year 2000 (NDU 1978). This study involved
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1001
nine man-years of effort by the Department of Defense and other agencies, aided by
experts who received honoraria, and a contract of nearly $400,000 (in 2007 dollars). The
heart of the study was a survey of experts. The experts were provided with a chart of
“annual mean temperature, 0-800 N. latitude,” that showed temperature rising from 1870
to early 1940 then dropping sharply until 1970. The conclusion, based primarily on 19
replies weighted by the study directors, was that while a slight increase in temperature
might occur, uncertainty was so high that “the next twenty years will be similar to that
of the past” and the effects of any change would be negligible. Clearly, this was a
forecast by scientists, not a scientific forecast. However, it proved to be quite influential.
The report was discussed in The Global 2000 Report to the President (Carter) and at the
World Climate Conference in Geneva in 1979.
The methodology for climate forecasting used in the past few decades has shifted
from surveys of experts’ opinions to the use of computer models. Reid Bryson, the
world’s most cited climatologist, wrote in a 1993 article that a model is “nothing more
than a formal statement of how the modeler believes that the part of the world of his
concern actually works” (p. 798-790). Based on the explanations of climate models
that we have seen, we concur. While advocates of complex climate models claim that
they are based on “well established laws of physics”, there is clearly much more to the
models than the laws of physics otherwise they would all produce the same output,
which patently they do not. And there would be no need for confidence estimates for
model forecasts, which there most certainly are. Climate models are, in effect,
mathematical ways for the experts to express their opinions.
To our knowledge, there is no empirical evidence to suggest that presenting
opinions in mathematical terms rather than in words will contribute to forecast
accuracy. For example, Keepin and Wynne (1984) wrote in the summary of their study
of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis’s “widely acclaimed”
projections for global energy that “Despite the appearance of analytical rigor… [they]
are highly unstable and based on informal guesswork.” Things have changed little
since the days of Malthus in the 1800s. Malthus forecast mass starvation. He expressed
his opinions mathematically. His mathematical model predicted that the supply of food
would increase arithmetically while the human population grew at a geometric rate
and went hungry.
International surveys of climate scientists from 27 countries, obtained by Bray and
von Storch in 1996 and 2003, were summarized by Bast and Taylor (2007). Many
scientists were skeptical about the predictive validity of climate models. Of more than
1,060 respondents, 35% agreed with the statement, “Climate models can accurately
predict future climates,” and 47% percent disagreed. Members of the general public
were also divided. An Ipsos Mori poll of 2,031 people aged 16 and over found that
40% agreed that “climate change was too complex and uncertain for scientists to make
useful forecasts” while 38% disagreed (Eccleston 2007).
AN EXAMINATION OF CLIMATE FORECASTING METHODS
We assessed the extent to which those who have made climate forecasts used
evidence-based forecasting procedures. We did this by conducting Google searches.
We then conducted a “forecasting audit” of the forecasting process behind the IPCC
1002 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
forecasts. The key tasks of a forecasting audit are to:
• examine all elements of the forecasting process,
• use principles that are supported by evidence (or are self-evidently true and
unchallenged by evidence) against which to judge the forecasting process,
• rate the forecasting process against each principle, preferably using more than
one independent rater,
• disclose the audit.
To our knowledge, no one has ever published a paper that is based on a forecasting
audit, as defined here. We suggest that for forecasts involving important public
policies, such audits should be expected and perhaps even required. In addition, they
should be fully disclosed with respect to who did the audit, what biases might be
involved, and what were the detailed findings from the audit.
REVIEWS OF CLIMATE FORECASTS
We could not find any comprehensive reviews of climate forecasting efforts. With the
exception of Stewart and Glantz (1985), the reviews did not refer to evidence-based
findings. None of the reviews provided explicit ratings of the processes and, again
with the exception of Stewart and Glantz, little attention was given to full disclosure
of the reviewing process. Finally, some reviews ignored the forecasting methods and
focused on the accuracy of the forecasts.
Stewart and Glantz (1985) conducted an audit of the National Defense University
(NDU 1978) forecasting process that we described above. They were critical of the
report because it lacked an awareness of proper forecasting methodology. Their audit
was hampered because the organizers of the study said that the raw data had been
destroyed and a request to the Institute for the Future about the sensitivity of the
forecasts to the weights went unanswered. Judging from a Google Scholar search,
climate forecasters have paid little attention to this paper.
In a wide-ranging article on the broad topic of science and the environment, Bryson
(1993) was critical of the use of models for forecasting climate. He wrote:
…it has never been demonstrated that the GCMs [General Circulation Models] are
capable of prediction with any level of accuracy. When a modeler says that his
model shows that doubling the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will raise the
global average temperature two to three degrees Centigrade, he really means that a
simulation of the present global temperature with current carbon dioxide levels
yields a mean value two to three degrees Centigrade lower than his model
simulation with doubled carbon dioxide. This implies, though it rarely appears in
the news media, that the error in simulating the present will be unchanged in
simulating the future case with doubled carbon dioxide. That has never been
demonstrated—it is faith rather than science.” (pp. 790-791)
Balling (2005), Christy (2005), Frauenfeld (2005), and Posmentier and Soon
(2005) each assess different aspects of the use of climate models for forecasting and
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1003
each comes to broadly the same conclusion: The models do not represent the real
world sufficiently well to be relied upon for forecasting.
Carter, et al. (2006) examined the Stern Review (Stern 2007). They concluded that
the authors of the Review made predictions without reference to scientific validation
and without proper peer review.
Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis (2007) examined long-term climate forecasts and
concluded that they were based only on the opinions of the scientists. The scientists’
opinions were expressed in complex mathematical terms without evidence on the
validity of chosen approach. The authors provided the following quotation on their
page 45 to summarize their assessment: “Today’s scientists have substituted
mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation and
eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality (Nikola Telsa, inventor and
electrical engineer, 1934).” While it is sensible to be explicit about beliefs and to
formulate these in a model, forecasters must also demonstrate that the relationships are
valid.
Carter (2007) examined evidence on the predictive validity of the general
circulation models (GCMs) used by the IPCC scientists. He found that while the
models included some basic principles of physics, scientists had to make “educated
guesses” about the values of many parameters because knowledge about the physical
processes of the earth’s climate is incomplete. In practice, the GCMs failed to predict
recent global average temperatures as accurately as simple curve-fitting approaches
(Carter 2007, pp. 64 – 65). They also forecast greater warming at higher altitudes in
the tropics when the opposite has been the case (p. 64). Further, individual GCMs
produce widely different forecasts from the same initial conditions and minor changes
in parameters can result in forecasts of global cooling (Essex and McKitrick, 2002).
Interestingly, when models predict global cooling, the forecasts are often rejected as
“outliers” or “obviously wrong” (e.g., Stainforth et al., 2005).
Roger Pielke Sr. (Colorado State Climatologist, until 2006) gave an assessment of
climate models in a 2007 interview (available via http://tinyurl.com/2wpk29):
You can always reconstruct after the fact what happened if you run enough model
simulations. The challenge is to run it on an independent dataset, say for the next
five years. But then they will say “the model is not good for five years because
there is too much noise in the system”. That’s avoiding the issue then. They say you
have to wait 50 years, but then you can’t validate the model, so what good is it?
…Weather is very difficult to predict; climate involves weather plus all these
other components of the climate system, ice, oceans, vegetation, soil etc. Why
should we think we can do better with climate prediction than with weather
prediction? To me it’s obvious, we can’t!
I often hear scientists say “weather is unpredictable, but climate you can predict
because it is the average weather”. How can they prove such a statement?
In his assessment of climate models, physicist Freeman Dyson (2007) wrote:
I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve
1004 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid
motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing
the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests.
They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in.
Bellamy and Barrett (2007) found serious deficiencies in the general circulation
models described in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report. In particular, the models (1)
produced very different distributions of clouds and none was close the actual
distribution of clouds, (2) parameters for incoming radiation absorbed by the
atmosphere and for that absorbed by the Earth’s surface varied considerably, (3) did
not accurately represent what is known about the effects of CO2 and could not
represent the possible positive and negative feedbacks about which there is great
uncertainty. The authors concluded:
The climate system is a highly complex system and, to date, no computer models
are sufficiently accurate for their predictions of future climate to be relied upon. (p.
72)
Trenberth (2007), a lead author of Chapter 3 in the IPCC WG1 report wrote in a
Nature.com blog “… the science is not done because we do not have reliable or
regional predictions of climate.”
Taylor (2007) compared seasonal forecasts by New Zealand’s National Institute of
Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) with outcomes for the period May 2002 to
April 2007. He found NIWA’s forecasts of average regional temperatures for the
season ahead were 48% correct, which was no more accurate than chance. That this is
a general result was confirmed by New Zealand climatologist Jim Renwick, who
observed that NIWA’s low success rate was comparable to that of other forecasting
groups worldwide. He added that “Climate prediction is hard, half of the variability in
the climate system is not predictable, and so we don’t expect to do terrifically well.”
Renwick is a co-author with Working Group I of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, and
also serves on the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology
Expert Team on Seasonal Forecasting. His expert view is that current GCM climate
models are unable to predict future climate any better than chance (New Zealand
Climate Science Coalition 2007).
Similarly, Vizard, Anderson, and Buckley (2005) found seasonal rainfall forecasts
for Australian townships were insufficiently accurate to be useful to intended
consumers such as farmers planning for feed requirements. The forecasts were
released only 15 days ahead of each three month period.
A SURVEY TO IDENTIFY THE MOST CREDIBLE LONG-TERM
FORECASTS OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
We surveyed scientists involved in long-term climate forecasting and policy makers.
Our primary concern was to identify the most important forecasts and how those
forecasts were made. In particular, we wished to know if the most widely accepted
forecasts of global average temperature were based on the opinions of experts or were
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1005
derived using scientific forecasting methods. Given the findings of our review of
reviews of climate forecasting and the conclusion from our Google search that many
scientists are unaware of evidence-based findings related to forecasting methods, we
expected that the forecasts would be based on the opinions of scientists.
We sent a questionnaire to experts who had expressed diverse opinions on global
warming. We generated lists of experts by identifying key people and asking them to
identify others. (The lists are provided in Appendix A.) Most (70%) of the 240 experts
on our lists were IPCC reviewers and authors.
Our questionnaire asked the experts to provide references for what they regarded as
the most credible source of long-term forecasts of mean global temperatures. We
strove for simplicity to minimize resistance to our request. Even busy people should
have time to send a few references, especially if they believe that it is important to
evaluate the quality of the forecasts that may influence major decisions. We asked:
“We want to know which forecasts people regard as the most credible and how
those forecasts were derived…
In your opinion, which scientific article is the source of the most credible
forecasts of global average temperatures over the rest of this century?”
We received useful responses from 51 of the 240 experts, 42 of whom provided
references to what they regarded as credible sources of long-term forecasts of mean
global temperatures. Interestingly, eight respondents provided references in support of
their claims that no credible forecasts exist. Of the 42 expert respondents who were
associated with global warming views, 30 referred us to the IPCC’s report. A list of
the papers that were suggested by respondents is provided at
publicpolicyforecasting.com in the “Global Warming” section.
Based on the replies to our survey, it was clear that the IPCC’s Working Group 1
Report contained the forecasts that are viewed as most credible by the bulk of the
climate forecasting community. These forecasts are contained in Chapter 10 of the
Report and the models that are used to forecast climate are assessed in Chapter 8,
“Climate Models and Their Evaluation” (Randall et al. 2007). Chapter 8 provided the
most useful information on the forecasting process used by the IPCC to derive
forecasts of mean global temperatures, so we audited that chapter.
We also posted calls on email lists and on the forecastingprinciples.com site asking
for help from those who might have any knowledge about scientific climate forecasts.
This yielded few responses, only one of which provided relevant references.
Does the IPCC report provide climate forecasts?
Trenberth (2007) and others have claimed that the IPCC does not provide forecasts but
rather presents “scenarios” or “projections.” As best as we can tell, these terms are
used by the IPCC authors to indicate that they provide “conditional forecasts.”
Presumably the IPCC authors hope that readers, especially policy makers, will find at
least one of their conditional forecast series plausible and will act as if it will come
true if no action is taken. As it happens, the word “forecast” and its derivatives
occurred 37 times, and “predict” and its derivatives occurred 90 times in the body of
1006 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
Chapter 8. Recall also that most of our respondents (29 of whom were IPCC authors
or reviewers) nominated the IPCC report as the most credible source of forecasts (not
“scenarios” or “projections”) of global average temperature. We conclude that the
IPCC does provide forecasts.
A FORECASTING AUDIT FOR GLOBAL WARMING
In order to audit the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s report,
we each read it prior to any discussion. The chapter was, in our judgment, poorly
written. The writing showed little concern for the target readership. It provided
extensive detail on items that are of little interest in judging the merits of the
forecasting process, provided references without describing what readers might find,
and imposed an incredible burden on readers by providing 788 references. In addition,
the Chapter reads in places like a sales brochure. In the three-page executive summary,
the terms, “new” and “improved” and related derivatives appeared 17 times. Most
significantly, the chapter omitted key details on the assumptions and the forecasting
process that were used. If the authors used a formal structured procedure to assess the
forecasting processes, this was not evident.
We each made a formal, independent audit of IPCC Chapter 8 in May 2007. To do
so, we used the Forecasting Audit Software on the forecastingprinciples.com site,
which is based on material originally published in Armstrong (2001). To our
knowledge, it is the only evidence-based tool for evaluating forecasting procedures.
While Chapter 8 required many hours to read, it took us each about one hour,
working independently, to rate the forecasting approach described in the Chapter using
the Audit software. We have each been involved with developing the Forecasting
Audit program, so other users would likely require much more time.
Ratings are on a 5-point scale from -2 to +2. A rating of +2 indicates the forecasting
procedures were consistent with a principle, and a rating of -2 indicates failure to comply
with a principle. Sometimes some aspects of a procedure are consistent with a principle
but others are not. In such cases, the rater must judge where the balance lays. The Audit
software also has options to indicate that there is insufficient information to rate the
procedures or that the principle is not relevant to a particular forecasting problem.
Reliability is an issue with rating tasks. For that reason, it is desirable to use two or
more raters. We sent out general calls for experts to use the Forecasting Audit
Software to conduct their own audits and we also asked a few individuals to do so. At
the time of writing, none have done so.
Our initial overall average ratings were similar at -1.37 and -1.35. We compared our
ratings for each principle and discussed inconsistencies. In some cases we averaged
the ratings, truncating toward zero. In other cases we decided that there was
insufficient information or that the information was too ambiguous to rate with
confidence. Our final ratings are fully disclosed in the Special Interest Group section
of the forecastingprinciples.com site that is devoted to Public Policy
(publicpolicyforecasting.com) under Global Warming.
Of the 140 principles in the Forecasting Audit, we judged that 127 were relevant
for auditing the forecasting procedures described in Chapter 8. The Chapter provided
insufficient information to rate the forecasting procedures that were used against 38 of
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1007
1008 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
Table 1. Clear Violations
Setting Objectives
• Describe decisions that might be affected by the forecast.
• Prior to forecasting, agree on actions to take assuming
different possible forecasts.
• Make sure forecasts are independent of politics.
• Consider whether the events or series can be forecasted.
Identifying Data Points
• Avoid biased data sources.
Collecting Data
• Use unbiased and systematic procedures to collect data.
• Ensure that information is reliable and that measurement
error is low.
• Ensure that the information is valid.
Selecting Methods
• List all important selection criteria before selecting
methods.
• Ask unbiased experts to rate potential methods.
• Select simple methods unless empirical evidence calls for a
more complex approach.
• Compare track records of various forecasting methods.
• Assess acceptability and understandability of methods to
users
• Examine the value of alternative forecasting methods.
Implementing Methods: General
• Keep forecasting methods simple.
• Be conservative in situations of high uncertainty or
instability.
Implementing Quantitative Methods
• Tailor the forecasting model to the horizon.
• Do not use “fit” to develop the model.
Implementing Methods: Quantitative Models with Explanatory
Variables
• Apply the same principles to forecasts of explanatory
variables.
• Shrink the forecasts of change if there is high uncertainty
for predictions of the explanatory variables.
Integrating Judgmental and Quantitative Methods
• Use structured procedures to integrate judgmental and
quantitative methods.
• Use structured judgments as inputs of quantitative models.
• Use prespecified domain knowledge in selecting, weighing,
and modifying quantitative models.
Combining Forecasts
• Combine forecasts from approaches that differ.
• Use trimmed means, medians, or modes.
• Use track records to vary the weights on component
forecasts.
Evaluating Methods
• Compare reasonable methods.
• Tailor the analysis to the decision.
• Describe the potential biases of the forecasters.
• Assess the reliability and validity of the data.
• Provide easy access to the data.
• Provide full disclosure of methods.
• Test assumptions for validity.
• Test the client’s understanding of the methods.
• Use direct replications of evaluations to identify mistakes.
• Replicate forecast evaluations to assess their reliability.
• Compare forecasts generated by different methods.
• Examine all important criteria.
• Specify criteria for evaluating methods prior to analyzing
data.
• Assess face validity.
• Use error measures that adjust for scale in the data.
• Ensure error measures are valid.
• Use error measures that are not sensitive to the degree of
difficulty in forecasting.
• Avoid error measures that are highly sensitive to outliers.
• Use out of sample (ex-ante) error measures.
• (Revised) Tests of statistical significance should not be
used.
• Do not use root mean square error (RMSE) to make
comparisons among forecasting methods.
• Base comparisons of methods on large samples of forecasts.
• Conduct explicit cost-benefit analysis.
Assessing Uncertainty
• Use objective procedures to estimate explicit prediction.
• Develop prediction intervals by using empirical estimates
based on realistic representations of forecasting situations.
• When assessing PIs, list possible outcomes and assess their
likelihoods.
• Obtain good feedback about forecast accuracy and the
reasons why errors occurred.
• Combine prediction intervals from alternative forecast
methods.
• Use safety factors to adjust for overconfidence in PIs.
Presenting Forecasts
• Present forecasts and supporting data in a simple and
understandable form.
• Provide complete, simple, and clear explanations of methods.
• Present prediction intervals.
Learning That Will Improve Forecasting Procedures
• Establish a formal review process for forecasting methods.
• Establish a formal review process to ensure that forecasts
are used properly.
these 127 principles. For example, we did not rate the Chapter against Principle 10.2:
“Use all important variables.” At least in part, our difficulty in auditing the Chapter
was due to the fact that it was abstruse. It was sometimes difficult to know whether the
information we sought was present or not.
Of the 89 forecasting principles that we were able to rate, the Chapter violated 72.
Of these, we agreed that there were clear violations of 60 principles. Principle 1.3
“Make sure forecasts are independent of politics” is an example of a principle that is
clearly violated by the IPCC process. This principle refers to keeping the forecasting
process separate from the planning process. The term “politics” is used in the broad
sense of the exercise of power. David Henderson, a former Head of Economics and
Statistics at the OECD, gave a detailed account of how the IPCC process is directed
by non-scientists who have policy objectives and who believe that anthropogenic
global warming is real and dangerous (Henderson 2007). The clear violations we
identified are listed in Table 1.
We also found 12 “apparent violations”. These principles, listed in Table 2, are ones
for which one or both of us had some concerns over the coding or where we did not
agree that the procedures clearly violated the principle.
Table 2. Apparent Violations
Setting Objectives
• Obtain decision makers’ agreement on methods.
Structuring the Problem
• Identify possible outcomes prior to making forecast.
• Decompose time series by level and trend.
Identifying Data Sources
• Ensure the data match the forecasting situation.
• Obtain information from similar (analogous) series or cases. Such information may help to
estimate trends.
Implementing Judgmental Methods
• Obtain forecasts from heterogeneous experts.
Evaluating Methods
• Design test situations to match the forecasting problem.
• Describe conditions associated with the forecasting problem.
• Use multiple measures of accuracy.
Assessing Uncertainty
• Do not assess uncertainty in a traditional (unstructured) group meeting.
• Incorporate the uncertainty associated with the prediction of the explanatory variables in the
prediction intervals.
Presenting Forecasts
• Describe your assumptions.
Finally, we lacked sufficient information to make ratings on many of the relevant
principles. These are listed in Table 3.
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1009
Table 3. Lack of Information
Structuring the Problem
• Tailor the level of data aggregation (or segmentation) to the decisions.
• Decompose the problem into parts.
• Decompose time series by causal forces.
• Structure problems to deal with important interactions among causal variables.
• Structure problems that involve causal chains.
Identifying Data Sources
• Use theory to guide the search for information on explanatory variables.
Collecting Data
• Obtain all the important data.
• Avoid collection of irrelevant data.
Preparing Data
• Clean the data.
• Use transformations as required by expectations.
• Adjust intermittent series.
• Adjust for unsystematic past events.
• Adjust for systematic events.
• Use graphical displays for data.
Implementing Methods: General
• Adjust for events expected in the future.
• Pool similar types of data.
• Ensure consistency with forecasts of related series and related time periods.
Implementing Judgmental Methods
• Ask experts to justify their forecasts in writing.
• Obtain forecasts from enough respondents.
• Obtain multiple forecasts of an event from each expert.
Implementing Quantitative Methods
• Match the model to the underlying phenomena.
• Weigh the most relevant data more heavily.
• Update models frequently.
Implementing Methods: Quantitative Models with Explanatory Variables
• Use all important variables.
• Rely on theory and domain expertise when specifying directions of relationships.
• Use theory and domain expertise to estimate or limit the magnitude of relationships.
• Use different types of data to measure a relationship.
• Forecast for alternative interventions.
Integrating Judgmental and Quantitative Methods
• Limit subjective adjustments of quantitative forecasts.
Combining Forecasts
• Use formal procedures to combine forecasts.
• Start with equal weights.
• Use domain knowledge to vary weights on component forecasts.
1010 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
Table 3. continued
Evaluating Methods
• Use objective tests of assumptions.
• Avoid biased error measures.
• Do not use R-square (either standard or adjusted) to compare forecasting models.
Assessing Uncertainty
• Ensure consistency of the forecast horizon.
• Ask for a judgmental likelihood that a forecast will fall within a pre-defined minimummaximum
interval.
Learning That Will Improve Forecasting Procedures
• Seek feedback about forecasts.
Some of these principles might be surprising to those who have not seen the
evidence—“Do not use R-square (either standard or adjusted) to compare forecasting
models.” Others are principles that any scientific paper should be expected to
address—“Use objective tests of assumptions.” Many of these principles are important
for climate forecasting, such as “Limit subjective adjustments of quantitative
forecasts.”
Some principles are so important that any forecasting process that does not adhere
to them cannot produce valid forecasts. We address four such principles, all of which
are based on strong empirical evidence. All four of these key principles were violated
by the forecasting procedures described in IPCC Chapter 8.
Consider whether the events or series can be forecasted (Principle 1.4)
This principle refers to whether a forecasting method can be used that would do better
than a naïve method. A common naïve method is to assume that things will not
change.
Interestingly, naïve methods are often strong competitors with more sophisticated
alternatives. This is especially so when there is much uncertainty. To the extent that
uncertainty is high, forecasters should emphasize the naïve method. (This is illustrated
by regression model coefficients: when uncertainty increases, the coefficients tend
towards zero.) Departures from the naïve model tend to increase forecast error when
uncertainty is high.
In our judgment, the uncertainty about global mean temperature is extremely high.
We are not alone. Dyson (2007), for example, wrote in reference to attempts to model
climate that “The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet
understand.” There is even controversy among climate scientists over something as
basic as the current trend. One researcher, Carter (2007, p. 67) wrote:
…the slope and magnitude of temperature trends inferred from time-series data
depend upon the choice of data end points. Drawing trend lines through highly
variable, cyclic temperature data or proxy data is therefore a dubious exercise.
Accurate direct measurements of tropospheric global average temperature have
only been available since 1979, and they show no evidence for greenhouse
warming. Surface thermometer data, though flawed, also show temperature stasis
since 1998.
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1011
Global climate is complex and scientific evidence on key relationships is weak or
absent. For example, does increased CO2 in the atmosphere cause high temperatures or
do high temperatures increase CO2? In opposition to the major causal role assumed for
CO2 by the IPCC authors (Le Treut et al. 2007), Soon (2007) presents evidence that the
latter is the case and that CO2 variation plays at most a minor role in climate change.
Measurements of key variables such as local temperatures and a representative
global temperature are contentious and subject to revision in the case of modern
measurements because of inter alia the distribution of weather stations and possible
artifacts such as the urban heat island effect, and are often speculative in the case of
ancient ones, such as those climate proxies derived from tree ring and ice-core data
(Carter 2007).
Finally, it is difficult to forecast the causal variables. Stott and Kettleborough
(2002, p. 723) summarize:
Even with perfect knowledge of emissions, uncertainties in the representation of
atmospheric and oceanic processes by climate models limit the accuracy of any
estimate of the climate response. Natural variability, generated both internally and
from external forcings such as changes in solar output and explosive volcanic
eruptions, also contributes to the uncertainty in climate forecasts.
The already high level of uncertainty rises rapidly as the forecast horizon increases.
While the authors of Chapter 8 claim that the forecasts of global mean temperature
are well-founded, their language is imprecise and relies heavily on such words as
“generally,” “reasonable well,” “widely,” and “relatively” [to what?]. The Chapter
makes many explicit references to uncertainty. For example, the phrases “. . . it is not
yet possible to determine which estimates of the climate change cloud feedbacks are the
most reliable” and “Despite advances since the TAR, substantial uncertainty remains in
the magnitude of cryospheric feedbacks within AOGCMs” appear on p. 593. In
discussing the modeling of temperature, the authors wrote, “The extent to which these
systematic model errors affect a model’s response to external perturbations is unknown,
but may be significant” (p. 608), and, “The diurnal temperature range… is generally too
small in the models, in many regions by as much as 50%” (p. 609), and “It is not yet
known why models generally underestimate the diurnal temperature range.” The
following words and phrases appear at least once in the Chapter: unknown, uncertain,
unclear, not clear, disagreement, not fully understood, appears, not well observed,
variability, variety, unresolved, not resolved, and poorly understood.
Given the high uncertainty regarding climate, the appropriate naïve method for this
situation would be the “no-change” model. Prior evidence on forecasting methods
suggests that attempts to improve upon the naïve model might increase forecast error.
To reverse this conclusion, one would have to produce validated evidence in favor of
alternative methods. Such evidence is not provided in Chapter 8 of the IPCC report.
We are not suggesting that we know for sure that long-term forecasting of climate
is impossible, only that this has yet to be demonstrated. Methods consistent with
forecasting principles such as the naïve model with drift, rule-based forecasting, wellspecified
simple causal models, and combined forecasts might prove useful. The
1012 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
methods are discussed in Armstrong (2001). To our knowledge, their application to
long-term climate forecasting has not been examined to date.
Keep forecasting methods simple (Principle 7.1)
We gained the impression from the IPPC chapters and from related papers that climate
forecasters generally believe that complex models are necessary for forecasting
climate and that forecast accuracy will increase with model complexity. Complex
methods involve such things as the use of a large number of variables in forecasting
models, complex interactions, and relationships that employ nonlinear parameters.
Complex forecasting methods are only accurate when there is little uncertainty about
relationships now and in the future, where the data are subject to little error, and where
the causal variables can be accurately forecast. These conditions do not apply to
climate forecasting. Thus, simple methods are recommended.
The use of complex models when uncertainty is high is at odds with the evidence
from forecasting research (e.g., Allen and Fildes 2001, Armstrong 1985, Duncan, Gorr
and Szczypula 2001, Wittink and Bergestuen 2001). Models for forecasting variations
in climate are not an exception to this rule. Halide and Ridd (2007) compared
predictions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events from a simple univariate model
with those from other researchers’ complex models. Some of the complex models
were dynamic causal models incorporating laws of physics. In other words, they were
similar to those upon which the IPCC authors depended. Halide and Ridd’s simple
model was better than all eleven of the complex models in making predictions about
the next three months. All models performed poorly when forecasting further ahead.
The use of complex methods makes criticism difficult and prevents forecast users
from understanding how forecasts were derived. One effect of this exclusion of others
from the forecasting process is to reduce the chances of detecting errors.
Do not use fit to develop the model (Principle 9.3)
It was not clear to us to what extent the models described in Chapter 8 (or in Chapter 9
by Hegerl et al. 2007) are either based on, or have been tested against, sound empirical
data. However, some statements were made about the ability of the models to fit
historical data, after tweaking their parameters. Extensive research has shown that the
ability of models to fit historical data has little relationship to forecast accuracy (See
“Evaluating forecasting methods” in Armstrong 2001.) It is well known that fit can be
improved by making a model more complex. The typical consequence of increasing
complexity to improve fit, however, is to decrease the accuracy of forecasts.
Use out-of-sample (ex ante) error measures (Principle 13.26)
Chapter 8 did not provide evidence on the relative accuracy of ex ante long-term
forecasts from the models used to generate the IPCC’s forecasts of climate change. It
would have been feasible to assess the accuracy of alternative forecasting methods for
medium- to long-term forecasts by using “successive updating.” This involves
withholding data on a number of years, then providing forecasts for one-year ahead,
then two-years ahead, and so on up to, say, 20 years. The actual years could be
disguised during these validation procedures. Furthermore, the years could be reversed
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1013
(without telling the forecasters) to assess back-casting accuracy. If, as is suggested by
forecasting principles, the models were unable to improve on the accuracy of forecasts
from the naïve method in such tests, there would be no reason to suppose that accuracy
would improve for longer forecasts. “Evaluating forecasting methods” in Armstrong
2001 provides evidence on this principle.
SUMMARY OF AUDIT FINDINGS
Our ratings of the processes used to generate the forecasts presented in the IPCC report
are provided on the Public Policy Forecasting Special Interest Group Page at
forecastingprinciples.com. These ratings have been posted since the time that our
paper was presented at the International Symposium on Forecasting in New York in
late June 2007.
Prior to the publication of this paper, we invited other researchers, using messages
to email lists and web sites, to replicate our audit by providing their own ratings. In
addition, we asked for information about any relevant principles that have not been
included in the Forecasting Audit. At the time of writing, we have received neither
alternative ratings nor evidence for additional relevant principles.
The many violations provide further evidence that the IPCC authors were unaware
of evidence-based principles for forecasting. If they were aware of them, it would have
been incumbent on them to present evidence to justify their departures from the
principles. They did not do so. We conclude that because the forecasting processes
examined in Chapter 8 overlook scientific evidence on forecasting, the IPCC forecasts
of climate change are not scientific.
We invite others to provide evidence-based audits of what they believe to be
scientific forecasts relevant to climate change. These can be posted on web sites to
ensure that readers have access to the audits. As with peer review, we will require all
relevant information on the people who conduct the audits prior to posting the audits
on publicpolicyforecasting.com.
Climate change forecasters and their clients should use the Forecasting Audit early
and often. Doing so would help to ensure that they are using appropriate forecasting
procedures. Outside evaluators should also be encouraged to conduct audits. The audit
reports should be made available to both the sponsors of the study and the public by
posting on an open web site such as publicpolicyforecasting.com.
CLIMATE FORECASTERS’ USE OF THE SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE ON
FORECASTING METHODS
Bryson (1993) wrote that while it is obvious that when a statement is made about what
climate will result from a doubling CO2 it is a forecast, “I have not yet heard, at any
of the many environmental congresses and symposia that I have attended, a discussion
of forecasting methodology applicable to the environment” (p. 791).
We looked for evidence that climate modelers relied on scientific studies on the
proper use of forecasting methods. In one approach, in April and June 2007, we used the
Advanced Search function of Google Scholar to get a general sense of the extent to
which climate forecasters refer to scientific studies on forecasting. When we searched
for “global warming” and “forecasting principles,” we found no relevant sites. Nor did
1014 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
we find any relevant citations of “forecastingprinciples.com” and “global warming.” Nor
were there any relevant citations of the relevant-sounding paper, “Forecasting for
Environmental Decision-Making” (Armstrong 1999) published in a book with a relevant
title: Tools to Aid Environmental Decision Making. A search for “global warming” and
the best selling textbook on forecasting methods (Makridakis et al. 1998) revealed two
citations, neither related to the prediction of global mean temperatures. Finally, there
were no citations of research on causal models (e.g., Allen and Fildes 2001).
Using the titles of the papers, we independently examined the references in Chapter
8 of the IPCC Report. The Chapter contained 788 references. Of these, none had any
apparent relationship to forecasting methodology. Our examination was not difficult as
most papers had titles such as, “Using stable water isotopes to evaluate basin-scale
simulations of surface water budgets,” and, “Oceanic isopycnal mixing by coordinate
rotation.”
Finally, we examined the 23 papers that we were referred to by our survey
respondents. These included Chapter 10 of the IPCC Report (Meehl et al. 2007). One
respondent provided references to eight papers all by the same author
(Abdussamatov). We obtained copies of three of those papers and abstracts of three
others and found no evidence that the author had referred to forecasting research. Nor
did any of the remaining 15 papers include any references to research on forecasting.
We also examined the 535 references in Chapter 9. Of these, 17 had titles that
suggested the article might be concerned at least in part with forecasting methods.
When we inspected the 17 articles, we found that none of them referred to the
scientific literature on forecasting methods.
It is difficult to understand how scientific forecasting could be conducted without
reference to the research literature on how to make forecasts. One would expect to see
empirical justification for the forecasting methods that were used. We concluded that
climate forecasts are informed by the modelers’ experience and by their models—but
that they are unaided by the application of forecasting principles.
CONCLUSIONS
To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would
need to prepare forecasts of (1) temperature changes, (2) the effects of any temperature
changes, and (3) the effects of feasible proposed policy changes. To justify policy
changes based on climate change, policy makers need scientific forecasts for all three
forecasting problems. If governments implement policy changes without such
justification, they are likely to cause harm.
We have shown that failure occurs with the first forecasting problem: predicting
temperature over the long term. Specifically, we have been unable to find a scientific
forecast to support the currently widespread belief in “global warming.” Climate is
complex and there is much uncertainty about causal relationships and data. Prior
research on forecasting suggests that in such situations a naïve (no change) forecast
would be superior to current predictions. Note that recommending the naïve forecast
does not mean that we believe that climate will not change. It means that we are not
convinced that current knowledge about climate is sufficient to make useful long-term
forecasts about climate. Policy proposals should be assessed on that basis.
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1015
Based on our literature searches, those forecasting long-term climate change have
no apparent knowledge of evidence-based forecasting methods, so we expect that
similar conclusions would apply to the other two necessary parts of the forecasting
problem.
Many policies have been proposed in association with claims of global warming. It
is not our purpose in this paper to comment on specific policy proposals, but it should
be noted that policies may be valid regardless of future climate changes. To assess this,
it would be necessary to directly forecast costs and benefits assuming that climate does
not change or, even better, to forecasts costs and benefits under a range of possible
future climates.
Public policy makers owe it to the people who would be affected by their policies
to base them on scientific forecasts. Advocates of policy changes have a similar
obligation. We hope that in the future, climate scientists with diverse views will
embrace forecasting principles and will collaborate with forecasting experts in order
to provide policy makers with scientific forecasts of climate.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We thank P. Geoffrey Allen, Robert Carter, Alfred Cuzán, Robert Fildes, Paul
Goodwin, David Henderson, Jos de Laat, Ross McKitrick, Kevin Trenberth, Timo van
Druten, Willie Soon, and Tom Yokum for helpful suggestions on various drafts of the
paper. We are also grateful for the suggestions of three anonymous reviewers. Our
acknowledgement does not imply that all of the reviewers agreed with all of our
findings. Rachel Zibelman and Hester Green provided editorial support.
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Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1019
APPENDIX A: PEOPLE TO WHOM WE SENT OUR QUESTIONNAIRE
(* indicates a relevant response)
IPCC Working Group 1
Myles Allen, Richard Alley, Ian Allison, Peter Ambenje, Vincenzo Artale, Paulo
Artaxo, Alphonsus Baede, Roger Barry, Terje Berntsen, Richard A. Betts, Nathaniel
L. Bindoff, Roxana Bojariu, Sandrine Bony, Kansri Boonpragob, Pascale Braconnot,
Guy Brasseur, Keith Briffa, Aristita Busuioc, Jorge Carrasco, Anny Cazenave,
Anthony Chen*, Amnat Chidthaisong, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Philippe Ciais*,
William Collins, Robert Colman*, Peter Cox, Ulrich Cubasch, Pedro Leite Da Silva
Dias, Kenneth L. Denman, Robert Dickinson, Yihui Ding, Jean-Claude Duplessy,
David Easterling, David W. Fahey, Thierry Fichefet*, Gregory Flato, Piers M. de F.
Forster*, Pierre Friedlingstein, Congbin Fu, Yoshiyuki Fuji, John Fyfe, Xuejie Gao,
Amadou Thierno Gaye*, Nathan Gillett*, Filippo Giorgi, Jonathan Gregory*, David
Griggs, Sergey Gulev, Kimio Hanawa, Didier Hauglustaine, James Haywood,
Gabriele Hegerl*, Martin Heimann*, Christoph Heinze, Isaac Held*, Bruce Hewitson,
Elisabeth Holland, Brian Hoskins, Daniel Jacob, Bubu Pateh Jallow, Eystein Jansen*,
Philip Jones, Richard Jones, Fortunat Joos, Jean Jouzel, Tom Karl, David Karoly*,
Georg Kaser, Vladimir Kattsov, Akio Kitoh, Albert Klein Tank, Reto Knutti, Toshio
Koike, Rupa Kumar Kolli, Won-Tae Kwon, Laurent Labeyrie, René Laprise, Corrine
Le Quéré, Hervé Le Treut, Judith Lean, Peter Lemke, Sydney Levitus, Ulrike
Lohmann, David C. Lowe, Yong Luo, Victor Magaña Rueda, Elisa Manzini, Jose
Antonio Marengo, Maria Martelo, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Taroh Matsuno, Cecilie
Mauritzen, Bryant Mcavaney, Linda Mearns, Gerald Meehl, Claudio Guillermo
Menendez, John Mitchell, Abdalah Mokssit, Mario Molina, Philip Mote*, James
Murphy, Gunnar Myhre, Teruyuki Nakajima, John Nganga, Neville Nicholls, Akira
Noda, Yukihiro Nojiri, Laban Ogallo, Daniel Olago, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Jonathan
Overpeck*, Govind Ballabh Pant, David Parker, Wm. Richard Peltier, Joyce Penner*,
Thomas Peterson*, Andrew Pitman, Serge Planton, Michael Prather*, Ronald Prinn,
Graciela Raga, Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, Stefan Rahmstorf, Jouni Räisänen, Srikanthan
(S.) Ramachandran, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy,
Rengaswamy Ramesh, David Randall*, Sarah Raper, Dominique Raynaud, Jiawen
Ren, James A. Renwick, David Rind, Annette Rinke, Matilde M. Rusticucci,
Abdoulaye Sarr, Michael Schulz*, Jagadish Shukla, C. K. Shum, Robert H. Socolow*,
Brian Soden, Olga Solomina*, Richard Somerville*, Jayaraman Srinivasan, Thomas
Stocker, Peter A. Stott*, Ron Stouffer, Akimasa Sumi, Lynne D. Talley, Karl E.
Taylor*, Kevin Trenberth*, Alakkat S. Unnikrishnan, Rob Van Dorland, Ricardo
Villalba, Ian G. Watterson*, Andrew Weaver*, Penny Whetton, Jurgen Willebrand,
Steven C. Wofsy, Richard A. Wood, David Wratt, Panmao Zhai, Tingjun Zhang, De’er
Zhang, Xiaoye Zhang, Zong-Ci Zhao, Francis Zwiers*
Union of Concerned Scientists
Brenda Ekwurzel, Peter Frumhoff, Amy Lynd Luers
1020 Energy & Environment · Vol. 18, No. 7+8, 2007
Channel 4 “The Great Global Warming Swindle” documentary (2007)
Bert Bolin, Piers Corbyn*, Eigil Friis-Christensen, James Shitwaki, Frederick Singer,
Carl Wunsch*
Wikipedia’s list of global warming “skeptics”
Khabibullo Ismailovich Abdusamatov*, Syun-Ichi Akasofu*, Sallie Baliunas, Tim
Ball, Robert Balling*, Fred Barnes, Joe Barton, Joe Bastardi, David Bellamy, Tom
Bethell, Robert Bidinotto, Roy Blunt, Sonja Boehmer, Andrew Bolt, John Brignell*,
Nigel Calder, Ian Castles*, George Chilingarian, John Christy*, Ian Clark, Philip
Cooney, Robert Davis, David Deming*, David Douglass, Lester Hogan, Craig Idso,
Keith Idso, Sherwood Idso, Zbigniew Jaworowski, Wibjorn Karlen, William
Kininmonth, Nigel Lawson, Douglas Leahey, David Legates, Richard Lindzen*, Ross
Mckitrick*, Patrick Michaels, Lubos Motl*, Kary Mullis, Tad Murty, Tim Patterson,
Benny Peiser*, Ian Plimer, Arthur Robinson, Frederick Seitz, Nir Shaviv, Fred Smith,
Willie Soon, Thomas Sowell, Roy Spencer, Philip Stott, Hendrik Tennekes, Jan Veizer,
Peter Walsh, Edward Wegman
Other sources
Daniel Abbasi, Augie Auer, Bert Bolin, Jonathan Boston, Daniel Botkin*, Reid
Bryson, Robert Carter*, Ralph Chapman, Al Gore, Kirtland C. Griffin*, David
Henderson, Christopher Landsea*, Bjorn Lomborg, Tim Osborn, Roger Pielke*,
Henrik Saxe, Thomas Schelling*, Matthew Sobel, Nicholas Stern*, Brian Valentine*,
Carl Wunsch*, Antonio Zichichi.
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts 1021

What is Global Warming?

2009-03-09T20:18:00.001-07:00

Global warming, What is it? Global warming, What is the main cause of it?Global warming, What are the effects of
globalwarming?Global warming is the most severe problem of our time Yet it has been largely ignored by society to date.
A global, trans boundary, issue it is difficult to plan and regulate for matters pertaining to global warming affecting as it
does current patterns of production and consumption. However it is clear that action must be taken before irreversible
changes occur and it becomes too late.
Global warming is the most severe problem of our time Yet it has been largely ignored by society to date. A global, trans
boundary, issue it is difficult to plan and regulate for matters pertaining to global warming affecting as it does current
patterns of production and consumption. However it is clear that action must be taken before irreversible changes occur
and it becomes too late. Global warming Can be attributed to the greenhouse effect. Trends suggest that temperatures
of the northern and southern hemispheres and the earth’s oceans have been gradually increasing over the last
fifty years. This general warming of the climate is due to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and
climatologists agree that this has contributed to the increase in global temperatures. The effects of such temperature
change results in increased precipitation levels, increased cloud cover and water vapour concentrations, longer monsoon
seasons and rising sea levels. These climatic disturbances are all intricately interlinked with a rise in temperature; for
example, the loss of ice mass from glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets consequently increases sea levels worldwide.
Climatic models of radiative forcing predict that low lying coastal areas and islands will be made uninhabitable by rising
sea levels while areas such as Southern Africa will be influenced by severe desertification. Ecosystems may be
irreversibly altered when seasonal climatic patterns are disturbed. Warmer winters and summer droughts may have
serious effects on forests, fertile farmland and water supplies affecting humans and animals. There is also the risk that
there will be an increase in infectious diseases such as malaria as temperatures increase and disease carrying insects
find suitable habitats in new regions. The serious social and political implications of global warming are not to be ignored.
Extreme weather phenomena are already becoming more common on a global scale. The effects may be seen already
in the form of heatwaves, flooding and violent storms and hurricanes, all of which may be attributed to the build up of
greenhouse gases in particular Carbon Dioxide and the ever increasing greenhouse effect. Most experts agree that if
the warming trend continues, climate change is inevitable. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in society will
serve to accelerate rates of global warming and climate change and pose real risks to environment and society. The
need for change is paramount. by Dorothy-Ellen White Related articles: Carbon Cycle ...Carbon dioxide is a
greenhouse gas which traps radiative heat in the atmosphere. The carbon cycle is the continuous geochemical cycle of
carbon between the atmosphere, the earth and the oceans. The process of photosynthesis in all living plants extracts
sunlight and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to produce carbohydrates... Related articles: Greenhouse Effect ...The
theory that human activities have an altering affect on our climate has become widely accepted amongst scientists. The
correlation between the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and climate change is indubitable. Anthropogenic
emissions to the atmosphere continue to rise despite the disastrous consequences scientists continue to warn us about
and despite existing global environmental change... Irish Sites with interesting information on Global warming: Climate
change and your health ...The impact of extreme weather on people’s health has become a ‘hot’
topic, if you will pardon the pun. Indeed, the latest ‘British Medical Journal’ has made it the cover story with
a series of disturbing observations on the subject..." Renewable energy the key to curbing Climate Change
...Industrialisation, over-farming, pollution and, particularly, the increasing use of carbon-based fuels such as coal and oil
are all causing damage to the earth's climate. Global warming caused by so-called "greenhouse" gas emissions - such
as carbon dioxide from car engines - threatens to permanently disrupt the delicate balance of the climate, creating
deserts in currently fertile regions and bringing arctic weather to temperate areas such as northern Europe..." The Kyoto
protocol on climate change ...On 16 February the Kyoto protocol on climate change became international law.
Unfortunately, it will do very little to tackle the reality of global warming. A proposal known as ‘Contraction and
Convergence’ could avert disaster but corporate obstructionism and media silence mean it hardly even enters the
climate ‘debate’..." Possible adverse health effects of climate change ...Bacteria and viruses adapt more
quickly to a changing environment than animals or birds. Therefore, the emergence of diseases spread by insects and
bacteria are among the earliest biological impact of climate change. A number of variables affect infectious agents and
their vectors (vectors are creatures which carry infection to humans)..." Global Warming could mean the end of the world
...could also spell disaster for civilisation. Scientists say the Earth is getting hotter very quickly, due to a greenhouse
effect caused by the amount of carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere by cars, planes and power stations. Here's
what could happen..." Global warming Global Sites with interesting information on Global warming: Global Warming Early
warning signs ...The map of early warning signs clearly illustrates the global nature of climate changes. In its 2001
assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that, an increasing body of observations
gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system..." Global warming Public
information from the Union of Concerned Scientists. ...The mainstream scientific consensus on global warming is
becoming clearer and more compelling every day: changes in our climate are real and are under way. Now. But we can
do something about it...The evidence that human-induced global warming is real cannot be ignored. Consider:..." Global
warming Childrens perspective. ...The EPAs climate change site for kids, with games, quizes, and animations...

Bluewater Network Position Paper

2009-03-09T20:13:00.000-07:00

Global Warming
The overwhelming majority of the world’s scientists agree that the Earth’s climate is warming at an unprecedented rate and that over the next century this global warming will be one of the biggest problems facing the environment, economy, and human health. This rise in temperatures is attributed to the significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels in the transportation and energy sectors.
According to the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, temperatures during the last century rose an average of 1oF, the fastest temperature increase in the last 1,000 years. Scientists predict that over the next century, global temperatures will rise by another 2.9-10.4 o F, a rate of increase unprecedented in the last 10,000 years. This is expected to cause a variety of adverse environmental impacts, including rising sea levels, warming oceans, worsening air quality, and increasing frequency and severity of storms, coastal erosion, droughts, heat-waves, floods, and wildfires.
Global Warming in California
California’s populace, economy, and environment are expected to suffer devastating consequences from the effects of global warming throughout the 21st century.
California’s diverse ecosystems and long coastlines are especially susceptible to the destructive impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures are projected to melt the Sierra snowpack by one-third over the next 60 years and two-thirds by 2090. Sea levels along California’s coast rose six inches in the last 100 years and are estimated to rise another 8-12 inches during this century, threatening critical freshwater resources, such as the San Joaquin Delta. In addition, catastrophic wildfires are expected to more than double in some regions of California over the next 50 years as a result of global warming.
If steps are not taken to reverse global climate change, California residents will face a host of health problems. Warmer temperatures will increase the rate of smog formation and seriously exacerbate incidences of asthma. A warmer climate will cause increased incidences of tropical diseases, including malaria, yellow fever, encephalitis, and Lyme disease, which are carried by mosquitoes, ticks, and rats. Increased temperatures will also result in fatal heat waves affecting hundreds of people, particularly young children and the elderly. Low income communities will be disproportionately impacted by adverse health impacts due to minimal access to health care and higher exposure to smog.
Global warming also threatens California’s top industries including tourism, agriculture, real estate, fishing, insurance, and timber. Since the 1960s, U.S. insurance companies have witnessed a 400 percent increase in large weather disasters, with a 1,100 percent increase in insured losses, 50 percent of which occurred after 1990. California leads the nation in agricultural production, which would be seriously disrupted by the impacts of global warming. A 5oF increase, as projected over the next several decades, could result in approximately $11 billion in annual losses for the nation’s agricultural sector, significantly impacting California farmers.
Although global warming will impact the entire state, its effects on public lands and waters—those that have been set aside to protect valuable ecosystems in California—will be especially severe. In June 2002, Bluewater Network released Scorched Earth, Global Climate Change Impacts on Public Lands and Waters, an alarming report detailing the effects of global warming on America's national parks, forests, wildlife refuges, and marine sanctuaries. In California, snowpack loss at Tahoe National Forest will threaten not only California’s water supplies, but the area’s $100 million dollar winter recreation industry. At Yosemite National Park, forested areas are expected to decline by up to 50 percent, and warming rivers and streams could devastate fish populations.
California’s Contribution to Global Warming
An effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in California will make a significant difference in the fate of Earth's fragile ecosystems. California is the second largest contributor of global warming pollution in the U.S., emitting over six percent of the nation’s greenhouse gas pollution, and between one and two percent of global carbon dioxide. The vast majority of these emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels. Combustion of fossil fuels for transportation accounts for 49 percent of California’s total global warming pollution; fossil fuel combustion for electricity generation accounts for 16 percent of the total.
Solutions
For the sake of future generations, the environment, and the economy, California must do its part to stabilize the climate, by taking immediate and sensible steps to achieve sizeable reductions in greenhouse gas pollution. While working to reduce emissions, the state must also address the deleterious effects of global warming that are already occurring, and will continue to occur until the climate is stabilized.
During the next decade, California must take aggressive steps to reduce its fossil fuels dependence in order to reduce its share of greenhouse gas pollution, and lead the nation and world in forward-thinking technologies for stabilizing the climate. Reducing use of fossil fuels in both the energy and transportation sectors will help lower greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants, as well as save consumers money on fuel and energy. Moreover, reducing fossil fuel dependence in California will assist the nation in moving away from the importation of foreign oil supplies, particularly from politically volatile nations.
In addition, California agencies must immediately begin to analyze the impacts of global warming on the state’s important natural resources, including water, forests, coasts, and protected land areas such as parks and wildlife refuges. By understanding the current and future impacts of global warming, California will best be able to implement the long-term management actions necessary to mitigate its effects.
By taking bold steps now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time mitigate the effects of global warming on precious natural resources, California will not only protect its own economy and environment, but will lead the nation on the most important environmental problem of the century.

Global Warming FAQ

2009-03-09T20:01:00.000-07:00

Overview. Alarm over the prospect of the Earth warming is not warranted by the agreed
science or economics of the issue. Global warming is happening and man is responsible
for at least some of it. Yet this does not mean that global warming will cause enough
damage to the Earth and humanity to require drastic cuts in energy use, a policy that
would have damaging consequences of its own. Moreover, science cannot answer
questions that are at heart economic or political, such as whether the Kyoto Protocol is
worthwhile
1. The Science
Isn’t there a scientific consensus that global warming is real and bad for us?
• There is no “scientific consensus” that global warming will cause damaging
climate change. Claims that there is mischaracterize the scientific research of
bodies like the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS).
What do scientists agree on?
• Scientists do agree that: (1) global average temperature is about 0.6°Celsius—or
just over 1°Fahrenheit—higher than it was a century ago; (2) atmospheric levels
of carbon dioxide (CO2) have risen by about 30 percent over past 200 years; and
(3) carbon dioxide, like water vapor, is a greenhouse gas whose increase is likely
to warm the Earth’s atmosphere.1
What don’t scientists know yet?
• Scientists do not agree on whether: (1) we know enough to ascribe past
temperature changes to carbon dioxide levels; (2) we have enough data to
confidently predict future temperature levels; and (3) at what level temperature
change might be more damaging than beneficial to life on Earth.
Didn’t the National Academy of Science say greenhouse gases cause global warming?
• The NAS reported in 2001 that, “Because of the large and still uncertain level of
natural variability inherent in the climate record and the uncertainties in the time
histories of the various forcing agents…a causal linkage between the buildup of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the observed climate changes during the
20th century cannot be unequivocally established.” It also noted that 20 years’
worth of data is not long enough to estimate long-term trends. 2
Hasn’t the Earth warmed alarmingly over the past 100 years?
• The temperature rise of 0.6°C over the last century is at the bottom end of what
climate models suggest should have happened. This suggests that either the
climate is less sensitive to greenhouse gases than previously thought or that some
unknown factor is depressing the temperature.3
Don’t climate models warn of alarming future warming?
• Predictions of 6°C temperature rises over the next 100 years are at the extreme
end of the IPCC range, and are the result of faulty economic modeling, not
science (see economics section below).
What are the realistic current estimates of future warming?
• Both James Hansen of NASA (the father of greenhouse theory) and Richard
Lindzen of MIT (the most renowned climatologist in the world) agree that, even if
nothing is done to restrict greenhouse gases, the world will only see a global
temperature increase of about 1°C in the next 50-100 years. Hansen and his
colleagues “predict additional warming in the next 50 years of 0.5 ± 0.2°C, a
warming rate of 0.1 ± 0.04°C per decade.”4
What about satellite temperature measurements?
• Evidence from satellite and weather balloon soundings suggests that the
atmosphere has warmed considerably less than greenhouse theory suggests.5
There is a disparity between the surface temperature measurements, which cover
only a small fraction of the Earth but show sustained warming, and these
measurements, which cover the whole atmosphere and show only a very slight
warming.
Hasn’t the disagreement between satellite and surface temperatures been resolved?
• No. There is still substantial disagreement between the mid-range of the satellite
measurements and the mid-range of the surface measurements. This is a problem
for climate models.
Are there other man-made factors besides greenhouse gases that influence temperature?
• New research also suggests that the role of greenhouse gases in warming has been
overestimated, as factors like atmospheric soot,6 land use change,7 and solar
variation8 all appear to have played significant parts in recent warming.
Specific Scare Stories
Is the world in danger of plunging into a new ice age, as in The Day After Tomorrow?
• No. The scenario presented in The Day After Tomorrow is physically impossible.
While research does suggest that the Gulf Stream has switched on and off in the
past, causing temperature drops in Europe, oceanographers are convinced that
global warming does not present any such danger.9
Is the world in severe danger from sea level rise?
• No. Research from Nils-Axel Mörner of Stockholm University demonstrates that
current sea levels are within the range of sea level oscillation over the past 300
years, while the satellite data show virtually no rise over the past decade.10 The
IPCC foresees sea-level rise of between 0.1 and 0.9m by 2100. The Earth
experienced a sea-level rise of 0.2m over the past century with no noticeable ill
effects.
• Update 1/1/06: Another study relevant to this controversy is Zwally et al.
(2005), which examined changes in ice mass "from elevation changes derived
from 10.5 years (Greenland) and 9 years (Antarctica) of satellite radar altimetry
data from the European Remote-sensing Satellites ERS-1 and -2." The researchers
report a net contribution of the three ice sheets to sea level of +0.05 ± 0.03 mm
per year. CO2Science.Org puts this in perspective:
“At the current sea-level-equivalent ice-loss rate of 0.05 millimeters per year, it
would take a full millennium to raise global sea level by just 5 cm, and it would
take fully 20,000 years to raise it a single meter.”
Weren’t recent extreme weather events caused by global warming?
• There is no provable link to global warming. For example, research by German
scientists has demonstrated that the devastating floods in central Europe in 2002
were perfectly normal when compared against the historical record.11 Allegations
that extreme weather has been more damaging recently do not take into account
the fact that mankind is now living and investing resources in more dangerous
areas. The World Meteorological Organization has acknowledged that increases
in the recorded number of extreme weather events may well be due to better
observation and reporting.12 A top expert from the IPCC resigned in January
2005 in protest that IPCC science was being misrepresented by claims that last
year’s hurricane season was exacerbated by global warming. Most hurricane
scientists agree that there is no way that Hurricane Katrina can be blamed on
global warming.
• Update 6/1/06: Recent published research casts extreme doubt on the influence of
warming on hurricanes. Kotzbach13 finds “The data indicate a large increasing
trend in tropical cyclone intensity and longevity for the North Atlantic basin and a
considerable decreasing trend for the Northeast Pacific. All other basins showed
small trends, and there has been no significant change in global net tropical
cyclone activity. There has been a small increase in global Category 4–5
hurricanes from the period 1986–1995 to the period 1996–2005. Most of this
increase is likely due to improved observational technology. These findings
indicate that other important factors govern intensity and frequency of tropical
cyclones besides SSTs [sea surface temperatures].”
Update 1/1/06: Aren’t the snows of Kilimanjaro disappearing because of global
warming?
• That’s not the verdict of scientists who study Mount Kilimanjaro most closely. In
“Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as Evidence of Climate Change:
Observations and Facts14,” Kaser et al. “develop a new concept for investigating
the retreat of Kilimanjaro’s glaciers, based on the physical understanding of
glacier–climate interactions.” They say, “The concept considers the peculiarities
of the mountain and implies that climatological processes other than air
temperature control the ice recession in a direct manner. A drastic drop in
atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19th century and the ensuing drier climatic
conditions are likely forcing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro.”
Won’t global warming lead to the spread of malaria?
• Climate is not a significant factor in the recent growth of vector-borne diseases
such as malaria. Most experts on this subject agree that other factors are much
more important in predicting future spread of these diseases.15
Didn’t the Pentagon conclude global warming poses a national security threat?
• The Pentagon is not convinced that global warming represents a major security
threat to the United States. The “secret paper” that garnered much publicity in
Europe was a self-admitted speculative exercise that went beyond the bounds of
measured research and had been released to the press long before the
sensationalist stories surfaced in Europe. Nor did the paper recommend
“immediate action” beyond better climate modeling.16
Haven’t recent climate models found that global warming will be much worse than
previously thought?
• The news that Oxford University has found that temperatures may increase by up
to 11°C severely misrepresents the scientific findings. According to the actual
scientific paper,17 the frequency distribution of the results suggests that the lower
end of temperature rises, in the 2°C to 4°C range, is the most likely.
Haven’t the National Academies of all the major countries agreed that global warming is
a serious threat?
• Claims that the scientific consensus is represented by a statement drafted by the
Royal Society of London and signed by the national scientific academies of the
G8 countries plus India, Brazil and China ignore the politicized nature of the
statement. The climate change committee of the Russian Academy of Sciences
says its president should not have signed the statement, while the use to which it
was put was condemned by the outgoing president of the U.S. National Academy
of Sciences, Bruce Alberts, who called the Royal Society’s presentation of the
statement “quite misleading.”18
Aren’t polar bears drowning because of melting ice?
• These claims are overblown. A leading Canadian polar bear biologist wrote
recently, “Climate change is having an effect on the west Hudson population of
polar bears, but really, there is no need to panic. Of the 13 populations of polar
bears in Canada, 11 are stable or increasing in number. They are not going
extinct, or even appear to be affected at present.”19
Update 1/1/06: Isn’t there a scientific consensus such that one researcher found no
disagreement about global warming in the literature?
• The research by Naomi Orsekes published in Science in December 2004 was
flawed. She studied about 1000 scientific abstracts, but admitted to a sympathetic
journalist that she made a major mistake in her search terms. In fact, she should
have reviewed about 12,000 abstracts. Even taking her sample, another
researcher who tried to replicate her study came to quite different conclusions20.
• In addition, the most recent survey of climate scientists, following the same
methodology as a published study from 1996, found that while there had been a
move towards acceptance of anthropogenic global warming, found that only 9.4%
of respondents “strongly agree” that climate change is mostly the result of
anthropogenic sources. A similar proportion “strongly disagree.” Furthermore,
only 22.8% of respondents “strongly agree” that the IPCC reports accurately
reflect a consensus within climate science21.
So what is the state of play with global warming science?
There is scientific agreement that the world has warmed and that man is at least partly
responsible for the warming—though there is no consensus on the precise extent of
man’s effect on the climate. There is ongoing scientific debate over the parameters
used by the computer models that project future climatic conditions. We cannot be
certain whether the world will warm significantly and we do not know how
damaging—if at all—even significant warming will be.
2. The Economics
Why is economics important to the study of global warming?
• Predictions of global warming catastrophe are based on models that rely on
economics as much as on science. If the science of greenhouse theory is right,
then we can only assess its consequences by estimating future production of
greenhouse gases from estimates of economic activity.
Is there anything wrong with the economics underlying warming projections?
• The economic modeling by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) is badly flawed (The Economist called it “dangerously incompetent”),
relying on economic forecasts that show much faster growth rates for developing
countries than is justified.22 The IPCC economic scenarios show significantly
greater economic development globally than other recognized, comparable
scenarios.
What will the Kyoto Protocol do to reduce warming?
• The Kyoto Protocol, most observers agree, will have virtually no effect on
temperature increase, as it imposes no restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions
upon major developing nations like China and India. These nations have publicly
refused to accept any restrictions now or in the future.23
Can’t we reduce emissions without affecting the economy?
• Greenhouse gas emissions derive from energy use which in turn derives from
economic growth. Therefore, nations that restrict emissions are almost certain to
reduce their rate of economic growth.
Update 1/1/06: Isn’t global warming all cost and no benefit?
• Even substantial global warming is likely to be of benefit to the United States. As
eminent Yale professor Robert Mendehlson testified to the Senate in 200024,
“Climate change is likely to result in small net benefits for the United States over
the next century. The primary sector that will benefit is agriculture. The large
gains in this sector will more than compensate for damages expected in the
coastal, energy, and water sectors, unless warming is unexpectedly severe.
Forestry is also expected to enjoy small gains. Added together, the United States
will likely enjoy small benefits of between $14 and $23 billion a year and will
only suffer damages in the neighborhood of $13 billion if warming reaches 5C
over the next century. Recent predictions of warming by 2100 suggest
temperature increases of between 1.5 and 4C, suggesting that impacts are likely to
be beneficial in the US.”
Haven’t economic models predicted no effect of reducing emissions on growth?
• European models of the effect of greenhouse gas emission restrictions (such as
PRIMES) are sectoral models that look at the effects on only one economic sector
and therefore badly underestimate the negative effects of emission restrictions on
other economic sectors. General equilibrium models, which take into account the
effects of emissions restrictions on other economic sectors, show much greater
negative economic effects than sectoral models.25
What do the better economic models say Kyoto will do?
• Recent research from general equilibrium models suggests strongly negative
impacts on European economies from adopting Kyoto targets (or going beyond
the targets, as in the case of the United Kingdom). One model shows the
economic effects by 2010 of adopting Kyoto targets as follows (remember that the
Protocol achieves virtually nothing in reducing global temperature):26
Germany -5.2% GDP -1,800,000 jobs
Spain -5.0% GDP -1,000,000 jobs
United Kingdom -4.5% GDP -1,000,000 jobs
Netherlands -3.8% GDP -240,000 jobs
Isn’t Europe on track to meet its Kyoto targets?
• Kyoto targets are unrealistic. Regardless of announced targets, 11 of the 15 preenlargement
EU countries are on course to increase their greenhouse gas
emissions well beyond their individual Kyoto targets.27
Specific Economic Issues
Isn’t President Bush to blame for holding up Kyoto?
• It is not the case that President Bush has unilaterally held up ratification of the
Kyoto treaty. The United States Senate must ratify any treaty signed by a
President. In 1997, during Bill Clinton’s presidency, the Senate (including recent
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry) voted 95-0 not to accept any
Kyoto-style treaty that would significantly harm the U. S. economy and did not
include participation by major developing countries.28 The U.S. President has no
power to impose Kyoto, or any other treaty, on an unwilling Senate.29
Doesn’t Russia’s participation demonstrate the appeal of Kyoto?
• Russia agreed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol only after being pressured by the
European Union, which held out the prospect of endorsing Russia’s entry into the
World Trade Organization. Both the Russian Academy of Sciences and several
Duma committees reported that Kyoto has no scientific substantiation and may
harm Russia’s economy.
Isn’t global warming a worse threat than terrorism?
• The charge that global warming is worse than terrorism in terms of damage to the
world is hyperbole. The implausible and unsubstantiable claim of many deaths
each year—the figure is often put at 150,000—owing to global warming ignores
the fact that most of those alleged deaths are due to diseases such as malaria,
which have historically existed even in cold climates and could easily be
controlled if the environmental lobby dropped its opposition to the use of DDT.30
Moreover, that number is itself dwarfed by the number killed by poverty, which
will be increased if the world decides to suppress the use of energy.
Can’t we replace fossil fuels cheaply and effectively with renewable energy?
• Alternative sources of energy such as renewables are not yet cost-effective and
come with environmental costs of their own (the veteran British environmentalist
David Bellamy is leading opposition to wind farms).31 The only currently costeffective
alternative to fossil fuel use is nuclear power, which environmental
activists continue to oppose in direct contradiction to their assertions that global
warming is the gravest danger the planet faces.
Aren’t market-based solutions the way to reduce emissions?
• “Cap and Trade” schemes that allow firms and governments to trade the right to
emit greenhouse gases up to certain limits are not economically efficient. By
creating rent-seeking opportunities, they promote the development of a carbon
cartel seeking to exploit the system to make profits. A simple carbon tax would
be much more economically efficient, although likely to prove unattractive to
voters in democracies.32 The recent collapse of the carbon market in Europe
shows how dependent such markets are on political considerations.
Summary
Europe and the world face severe economic consequences from currently proposed
strategies to deal with global warming. These approaches will produce job losses and
consume scarce resources that could be better spent on handling other world problems
such as AIDS or access to water.33 The economic consequences of global warming
mitigation strategies currently proposed will probably be worse than the effects of global
warming itself. Therefore, adaptive and resiliency strategies should be considered as a
more cost-effective alternative. In addition, “no regrets” strategies that will provide
benefits from greater economic growth whether global warming proves to be a problem
or not should be adopted at once.34
Notes
1 Professor Richard Lindzen, testimony to the United States Senate, May 1, 2001.
2 Committee on the Science of Climate Change [Cicerone et al.], Climate Change Science: An Analysis of
Some Key Questions, National Research Council, Washington D.C., 2001.
3 See testimony of Prof. Richard Lindzen to UK House of Lords Committee on Economic Affairs, January
21, 2005. Available at http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld/lduncorr/econ2501p.pdf.
4 Sun, S., and J.E. Hansen 2003. Climate simulations for 1951-2050 with a coupled atmosphere-ocean
model. J. Climate 16, 2807-2826.
5 Christy, J.R., and R.W. Spencer, Global Temperature Report: April 2003, UAH Earth System Science
Center, May 9, 2003, Vol. 12, No. 12.
6 Sato, M. et al., 2003: “Global Atmospheric Black Carbon inferred from AERONET,” Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, vol. 100, no. 11: 6319-6324.
7 Pielke et al. 2002, “The Influence of Land-use Change and Landscape Dynamics on the Climate System:
Relevance to Climate-change Policy beyond the Radiative Effect of Greenhouse Gases,” Phil. Trans. R.
Soc. Lond. A (2002) 360, 1705-1719.
8 Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. 1991. “Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity
Closely Associated with Climate,” Science 254, 698-700; Thejil, P. and Lassen, K. 1999, SolarFforcing of
the Northern Hemisphere Land AirTtemperature: New Data, DMI-report #99-9, Danish Meteorological
Institute, Copenhagen 1999.
9 Weaver, A.J., and Hillaire-Marcel, C. 2004, “Global Warming and the Next Ice Age,” Science, Vol 304,
Issue 5669, 400-402; Wunsch, C. 2004, “Gulf Stream Safe if Wind Blows and Earth turns,” Nature 428,
601.
10 Mörner, N.-A. 2003. “Estimating Future Sea Level Changes from Past Records,” Global and Planetary
Change 40: 49-54.
11 Mudelsee, M., et al., 2003. No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe.
Nature, 425, 166-169.
12 The Director of the World Climate Program for the WMO, Ken Davidson, replied to a questioner in
Geneva in 2003, “You are correct that the scientific evidence (statistical and empirical) are (sic) not present
to conclusively state that the number of events have (sic) increased. However, the number of extreme
events that are being reported and are truly extreme events has increased both through the meteorological
services and through the aid agencies as well as through the disaster reporting agencies and corporations.
So, this could be because of improved monitoring and reporting,” quoted at
http://www.john-daly.com/press/press-03b.htm .
13 Klotzbach, P. J. (2006), Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–
2005), Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10805, doi:10.1029/2006GL025881.
14 International Journal of Climatology (24; 329-339)
15 Reiter, P. et al, “Global Warming and Malaria, A Call for Accuracy,” Lancet Infectious Diseases 2004
Jun; 4(6):323-4.
16 Schwartz, P. and Randall, 2003, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United
States National Security, paper submitted to Pentagon October 2003. Available at
http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climate_change.html#report.
17 Stainforth, D. et al., “Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse
gases,” Nature, 433, 403-406.
18 Sam Knight, “Anti-Bush gibe by Royal Society sparks climate change row,” Times Online, July 5, 2005,
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,22649-1681145,00.html
19 Dr Mitchell Taylor, Dept. of the Environment, Government of Nunavut, in The Toronto Star, May 1,
2006.
20 http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/Scienceletter.htm
21 http://w3g.gkss.de/G/Mitarbeiter/bray.html/BrayGKSSsite/BrayGKSS/WedPDFs/Science2.pdf
22 Ian Castles, “Greenhouse Emissions Calculations Quite Wrong,” Canberra Times, August 29, 2002,
available in Castles, I. & Henderson, D. 2003: “The IPCC Emission Scenarios: An Economic-Statistical
Critique,” Energy & Environment, Nos. 2 & 3: 166-168.
23 Cooler Heads Newsletter, Nov. 12, 2003. See http://www.globalwarming.org/article.php?uid=233.
24 http://64.233.179.104/search?q=cache:ctDw6sczNv0J:www.senate.gov/~commerce
25 Canes, M., Economic Modeling of Climate Change Policy, International Council for Capital Formation,
October 2002.
26 Thorning, M., Kyoto Protocol and Beyond: Economic Impacts on EU Countries, International Council
for Capital Formation, October 2002.
27 Press Release, EU15 greenhouse gas emissions decline after two years of increases, European
Environment Agency, 15 July 2004.
28 S.98 Expressing the sense of the Senate regarding the conditions for the United States becoming a
signatory to any international agreement on greenhouse gas emissions under the United Nations, 1997.
29 U.S. Constitution, Article II, Section 2, Clause 2.
30 Reiter et al.
31 Schleede, G. 2004, Facing up to the True Costs and Benefits of Wind Energy, paper presented to he
owners and members of Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc., at the 2004 Annual Meeting in St. Louis,
Missouri. Available at http://www.globalwarming.org/aecifa.pdf.
32 McKitrick, R. 2001, What’s Wrong With Regulating Carbon Dioxide Emissions?, Briefing at the United
States Congress, October 11, 2001. Available at http://www.cei.org/gencon/014,02191.cfm.
33 See the work of the Copenhagen Consensus: http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com.
34 See, for example, Adler et al., Greenhouse Policy Without Regrets; A Free Market Approach to the
Uncertain Risks of Climate Change, Competitive Enterprise Institute, 2000.

SEO Tips for your website

2009-03-08T20:23:00.001-07:00

In today’s cyber age, we almost always come across the element of Search-engines and hence also the term “Search Engine Optimization” (SEO). It
is a fact that without the usage of search engines, the vast resources of internet and all its treasures would only but remain a mirage. Search engines
only guide us our choicest of destinations and the plethora of information that the net has to offer. SEO is the art of making your web content easily
available and marketed through the search engines. The search engine result pages are a map of how SEO-friendly your web site is and
proportionately, how accessible it is to the common AOL user.
Some Common SEO Tips
Here are some useful tips for the webmasters to avail of the SEO advantage for their respective web-pages.
Bold and Colorful Keyword Tabs
Usage of bold and colorful keywords is an essential in providing your web page an impetus to top SEO rankings on the web.
Links
The more deeply and numerically you are linked to other web pages and web sites, the more will you be able to acquire web traffic. The big numbers
of active links prove that your website has worthwhile content and is worth a visit and hence will help you rise in the search result pages.
Offices Abroad
A business address in the US or Canada or the UK will be a big boost to your SEO marketing strategy as these nations have huge directories of web
sites and portals authentically located and functioning on the net.
Various Domains
If you are making a web page on 3 different topics that might have had their own exclusive domains, then rather go for the separate domain idea. This
warrants you the possibility of gaining two or more links on the search result page instead of one and also more arbitrary search results will direct to
your site as search engines generally zoom in on home pages of the topic listed in the search box. Thus, you get to gain mileage even from the
construction of a domain for your pet dog’s favorite cereal - Bubblychops!
Article Barter
Your webpage hosts an article from a friend of yours’ and a link takes a visitor to his web site and vice-versa. This is what article barter is all about.
Much more useful than normal images or links, both partners enjoy the diverse content as well as linked pages mean more web traffic.
Site Map
A must-have for big commercial sites as well as amateur and small ventures too. It helps the web-crawlers identify every single necessary page within
a short span of time and with ease, a basic feature that search engines applaud.
There are more intricate and detailed tricks and magical touches that can help your web site fetch top ranks on the internet search application result
pages, but the afore-mentioned are sure to get you a head-start for the big race ahead.
About the Author
Thomas H. Lindblom is responsible some of the best articles and SEO writings that appear on the internet today. He is the face of the SEO tips article
writers in the cyber world today and has paved the way for SEO writing to become a full-fledged profession and an established practice.

SEO 101 - Blog & Feed Optimization

2009-03-06T19:49:00.000-08:00

A blog is one of the best and easiest ways to generate fresh, up to date content
for your site as well as link love. Good, quality content naturally attracts links, but
there are ways to optimize your blog to get the biggest bang for your buck.
What is a blog? Short for web log, a blog is a content management system,
basically an interactive web site that allows you to create and post content
through a web-based control panel. Rather than create a web page and upload it,
you just log into your blog control panel and write articles and post them. They
are live immediately and readers can post comments so that it is a more
interactive experience for the visitor.
For some, a blog can completely replace a traditional web site.
And, one of the great features of a blog is the built-in RSS feed that visitors can
subscribe to for keeping up with your new content. An RSS feed is commonly
referred to as "Really Simple Syndication" and it does just what the name
suggests - it allows your blog articles and news to be automatically retrieved by
user feed readers (like Google Reader, MyYahoo, BlogLines, etc.) all over the
world as you post them. The distribution potentially drives traffic, deep links and
popularity to your blog which can help with your rankings. Pretty cool, huh?
As with your blog, there are also some ways to maximize your RSS feed, too.
Bottom line - if you don't have a blog, get one now!
So, as a follow-up to my S E O 101 post which recommends a blog as a way to
enhance your site's optimization, here are a few tips to get you going with your
blog and feed campaign. The plugins (small prgrams that add features to your
blog, usually free) mentioned are specifically for the free self-hosted version of
WordPress, probably the most popular blog platform currently used, but the
concepts apply to all blogs.
1. Use full text in your RSS feed. It is common to just include the first
paragraph or two (a summary) in what goes out in the feed and then insert a
"More" link to get the reader to go to your blog. That diminishes your ability to get
back links from services like TechMeMe because any links below the "More"
won't appear. Use the full text. Don't worry about your feed being duplicate
content. According to Rick Klau, formerly of Feedburner and now with Google, a
feed in itself will never be considered duplicate content.
2. Optimize the text in the RSS feed just like you should with your posts and
web pages. Use descriptive, keyword rich text in your title and description.
3. RSS feeds with podcasts and video enclosures will get you into additional
RSS directories and engines. Be sure to use show notes for your podcasts and
videos, though. Remember, search engines love text and can't yet pull content
from multimedia files.
4. Include tag clouds on pages. Tag clouds are basically keywords from posts
on your blog that are linked to a search results page on your blog that include all
articles related to the keyword. Let's say the word that shows up in the "cloud"
(basically just a list) is "widgets" and you click on it. You'll get a page showing all
posts on your blog that are tagged with the "widgets" tag. To produce tag clouds,
Ultimate Tag Warrior, a free plugin for WordPress, can be used.
5. Use a Related Posts plugin. Crosslinking to related posts on your blog helps
with your internal linking, making keyword rich anchor text more prominent on
your blog as well as helping your visitors navigate your site. Use a related posts
plugin for WordPress like Contextual Related Posts.
6. Top Ten Posts with links. This can be automated with yet another plugin that
automates the process of deciding which posts get clicked on the most and
placing a list on your blog for visitors (and spiders) to see and follow. Popularity
Contest is a good WordPress plugin for this.
7. Add Technorati tags to your posts. Technorati tracks blogs and social
media and tagging your posts can help spread the word about your content. Go
to Technorati, register for an account (it's free) and claim your blog as your own.
A nice plugin to help automate the placement of Technorati tags on your blog is
Simple Tags.
8. Optimize your TITLE. Don't just let your blog software automatically create
the TITLE for your post by pulling the text out of your post heading. Customize
and optimize it. The S E O TITLE Tag plugin is perfect for WordPress. And, just
like with any web page TITLE, put your company name or the name of the blog
at the END (if you must include it at all). Unless you are Coca Cola or Microsoft,
NOBODY will be searching for it. Sorry...
9. Make posts sticky. By using a "sticky post" plugin, you can create keyword
rich content that will stay at the top of a category page, for instance, rather than
moving down as additional content is posted. I am currently using WP Sticky.
10. Create Sitemaps. The search engines can follow your RSS feed sitemap just
like they can follow one for a normal web site. Create sitemaps for each category
RSS feed and tell the search engines about them, either by pointing to them in
your robots.txt file or by submitting them to Yahoo Site Explorer or Google
Webmaster Central.
11. Use Feedburner. Feedburner offers a ton of free features that can add to
your blog's optimization and marketing efforts, including stats, post e-mail
notifications, the ability to include Flickr photo posts and much more. Recently
bought by Google, features that were previously paid services like MyBrand are
now free.
12. Use Optional Excerpts. When you make a post, WordPress will grab some
text to display on your category page and in your feed (if you aren't using a full
feed as described above). Unfortunately, it doesn't always grab good text. Using
the Optional Excerpts feature in WordPress, you can type in the exact keyword
rich, topical text that you want displayed.
13. Domain name - In a nutshell, if you think having your blog on a separate
domain from, say, your business, will give you more authority and street credit
then go for it. It boils down to a choice of mydomain.com/blogname or
blogname.com.
14. Use the Update Service built into WordPress. This is in the Options menu
and all you do is place a list of URLs to different services like Feedster, Netgator,
Technorati, etc. and whenever you make a post, those services will be notified.
You can find a list of the services at WordPress Update Service.
15. CEO blogging - priceless! If you are running a business, particularly a
consumer driven business, get your CEO blogging! CEO influence on a blog is
incredible as this is the VOICE of the company. And, responding to reader
comments will cause your credibility to skyrocket!

Quick SEO Tips

2009-03-06T19:25:00.000-08:00

There are no secret in SEO, you just got to build links, links and links! Here are some quick tips on how to improve your
search engine ranking:
1. Title: Make sure the title contains your targeted keyword
2. Meta-tags: Place your keyword as the first meta-tag for that particular article
3. Links: This is also very important when it comes to search engine ranking. Exchange links with other fellow bloggers
every month to stay on top of your competition
4. Keywords: There’s a technique where you can spam keywords on your article. Keep repeating the keywords
everywhere on your article.
5. H1, H2 Tags: Place H1 and H2 tags on your title or keywords that you are targeting on your page.

Organic SEO

2009-03-06T01:39:00.000-08:00

1
Organic SEO is commonly thought of as simply the “naturally” or “organically” occurring search
results that are found on the left side of a search engine results page below and to the left of the
paid listings. Usually, these results are represented as unpaid and the product of algorithmic
indexing of websites. That is also the natural perception of the services offered by most SEO
Agencies. However, there are some successful SEO Agencies which take this definition a step
further than just this ranking service. These companies do not merely taking ranking into
account. This is what defines a professional “Whitehat” SEO Agency versus one that uses
“Blackhat” techniques to improve natural rankings.

2
The “Whitehat” Organic SEO Agency
The prime difference between a Whitehat and Blackhat organic SEO agency is the methodology
used to achieve results as well as the long term results themselves. The agency that practices
Whitehat techniques normally advises on and performs SEO services with a content-based
approach. This approach will generally aim to improve website content pages while focusing on
specific keywords to optimize and rank. This is the strictest definition of organic SEO in that it
adheres to the terms of service and webmaster guidelines of the major search engines as well as
following the generally accepted procedures for long term keyword ranking success. This
approach, while usually involving more work, creativity, and patience does prove to survive
search engine algorithm updates better while reducing the risk of triggering search engine
filtering, penalties and bans.
The “Blackhat” Organic SEO Agency
A Blackhat organic SEO agency is one that looks for a quick fix approach to improving ranking.
This method of so-called “organic SEO” is commonly accomplished by means of technology and
automation. For example, the Blackhat organic SEO agency may automate the search engine
and directory submission processes. While they practices are frowned upon by both search
engines and the Whitehat organic SEO communities, they do not actually violate any laws—only
the search engines terms of service and webmaster guidelines. These practices are also difficult
to detect, therefore they may be successful at first to a degree. The problems come when the
search engines become wise to practices such as these and alter their algorithms to weed-out
sites using such practices. In fact, some search engines are known to filter, penalize and
sometimes ban all the sites on a similar IP as the offending site. Another common Blackhat
practice of an organic SEO consulting company is IP delivery or “cloaking.” This technology
based “optimization” technique delivers different content to search engines than it would to users.
The search engines get very simple, keyword-rich and highly optimized pages which would be
very unfriendly to users, while users get a page that is very user-friendly but would not generally
be considered search engine friendly.
More Ways a True Organic SEO Firm Will Stand Out
One of the most important ranking factors, which any organic SEO firm will tell you, is link
acquisition. This method of citation distributes relevant importance from one webpage to another.
In this way, search engines can more readily define a good site from a bad one. The Blackhat
organic SEO firm will try and manipulate the link citation acquisition process by applying
technological methods to automate the process and cheat the system as best as possible.
Remember: those citations are deemed important in aiding ranking because they represent the
importance of a webpage; they should not benefit a website that has had its link acquisition
automated or gamed in an artificial manner. When this happens, the so-called organic SEO firm
will use expedient linking schemes such as buying text links, link farms, and free-for-all
directories. The true organic SEO firm will help build quality in your site by adding good content
that will encourage the natural linking process. It will also continually look for links from industry
related websites that not only promise to bring qualified traffic to your page, but also aid in
representing the website as a trusted authority page in the industry. When search engine
algorithms see that your closely related peers are citing your page as important, the rankings will
support the efforts. The Blackhat organic SEO firm will, on the other hand, look to getting as
many links as possible—from anywhere. Algorithms are always improving and distinguishing
between good and bad links is getting easier for search engines to accomplish causing the
devaluation of low quality irrelevant links and possibly even the filtering of pages that are known
to be recipients of mass quantities of these extraneous citations.

3
Why an Algorithm Update Scares a “Blackhat” SEO Company
A Blackhat organic SEO company will use gaps in search engine ranking algorithms to design
technological solutions to improve rankings. While these tricks are not illegal, they raise the
chances that the search results delivered by search engines will be of lower quality because that
organic SEO company will fool the search engine into showing results that are not earned.
Search engines stay in business by providing highly relevant results and gathering market share
in the process—if you like the results from a search offering one day, you will come back another
day to use the same service. The search engine capitalizes on this by selling ad space in the
form of pay per-click advertising (among other methods). If the search engine is fooled by a
Blackhat organic SEO company, it will display less than relevant results, the user may notice this
and possibly look elsewhere for their search provider. To combat artificially induced results, the
search engines are constantly updating their algorithms to prevent these sorts of schemes from
synthetically improving search results. When this happens, the artificially improved results will
decline in the rankings and the Blackhat organic SEO company will likely start getting angry calls
and E-Mails from their clients demanding better results. This usually sends these types of
companies scrambling to find the next ‘quick fix’ technology solution to game the search engines
another way—and the cycle continues. This is the main reason why the results from artificially
produce rankings by Blackhat organic SEO companies are generally short-term solutions and do
not offer any significant website improvements.
Why Algorithm Updates are Great for those Companies Offering True
Organic SEO Services
The same phenomenon that causes artificial rankings to drop, leaves empty search engine
results page slots for quality pages produced by true organic SEO services to move up and fill
those voids. Throughout the history of search, there has been a common denominator for those
sites with constantly good rankings for major industry keywords: they have offered pages that are
of great quality and serve a real purpose to their users produced by those same Whitehat organic
SEO services. In essence, true organic SEO service practitioners do not worry about ‘algorithmic
shifts’ and do not need to make major re-optimization changes thereby saving future time and
money in the process. Over time, as sites mature, the well optimized Whitehat organic SEO
websites will steadily gain position due to naturally occurring factors incorporated into almost
every search engines algorithm including domain age, link profile, and industry authority.
The Other Side of Site Traffic from the “Blackhat” Organic SEO
Consulting Company
If you are interesting in an organic SEO consulting company, you should look at the big picture of
search engine marketing—not simply getting a site ranked. One must analyze the quality,
demographics and mindset of the traffic achieved by typically artificial organic SEO consulting. If
you deliver a high ranking to a website that provides a poor or irrelevant user experience, what is
the actual likelihood the user will spend some time on the site and act toward a conversion? The
answer is that it is quite unlikely. The user will feel fooled and will quickly resolve to use the
“back” button on their browser. In the end, organic SEO consulting that uses automated and
underhanded technology-based techniques to trick the search engines into displaying irrelevant
results hurts the users, the search engines, and ultimately that same Blackhat organic SEO
consulting company because it has poor performance, customer retention and loyalty.

4
What to Expect from a True Organic SEO Service
In such a new and dynamic industry as SEO, every firm has different methodologies, beliefs,
principals and ethics that is adheres to. That being said, we have made a sharp distinction
between the short-term, high risk (possible) results of a Blackhat or artificial organic SEO service
verses those of Whitehat or true organic SEO services. While the Whitehat service will preach
and practice good SEO copywriting, keyword prominence and natural quality backlink acquisition,
the Blackhat service will look for an easy way to fool the search engines through technology. A
true organic SEO service company should be looked at as a long term investment while a
Blackhat organic SEO service company is a quick fix solution that will undoubtedly lead to
disappointing results and high costs in the end. If you are faced with a choice between the two
and are not sure which is right for you, the test is that a good organic SEO firm will not accept a
contract that refuses to add good content to the site and improve the overall user experience.

Understanding SEO

2009-03-06T01:33:00.000-08:00

Introduction
Search engine optimization (SEO) is not about technology, it is about marketing. SEO also known as SEP (Search engine positioning) is basically a plan implemented to increase a sites visibility. It mainly involves selecting keywords that will generate the targeted traffic, researching search engine policies and guidelines, and most importantly understanding the customer. There is a wide range of companies that offer SEO services, each employing strategies that may be significantly different from one another and hence producing varying results. Understanding these different strategies is the most important factor in choosing your SEO company.
Need for optimization
It is critical for every company to take into consideration how well its Web site will rank in the most important search engines and directories. There are various but deliberate measures that a company must undertake in order to maximize their web site’s potential for success in search engines and directories. These measures, which produce concrete results, comprise the very heart of search engine optimization. Many companies underestimate the importance of search engines and fail to understand the ranking process so they end up ignoring what may be the most crucial ingredient of Internet marketing strategy.
Classification of Search Engines
GoogleInktomiFASTAltavistaCRAWLER BASEDOvertureGoogle Adwords SelectLycos InsitePAY PER CLICKYahooDmoz.orgLooksmartDIRECTORIESSEARCH ENGINES
One of the first things to understand when approaching Web site optimization in a strategic manner is the difference between search engines and directories.
Crawler based search engines are entities that rely on automated software agents called spiders. These spiders grab information like page titles, meta data, and textual content to be included in the search engines index or database. Search engines determine relevancy by applying a set of rules known as algorithm. The algorithm determines whether to include a specific page in the results based on the items captured by the spider. Google is an example of this type of search engine.
The other types of search engines are those that have a directory component. The main distinguishing factor between the directory and a search engine is the human element. Directories are organized by human editors who actually visit the submitted website. They play a large role in the categorization of the web site and the wording of the titles and descriptions that will be the basis by which searchers will find the web site. LookSmart is an example of human powered directory.
Search engines like Yahoo and MSN, present both crawler based and human powered results. These are known as hybrid search engines.
How does SEO work?
While the algorithm of each engine may be different, they all look for the similar things:
• Location of keywords:
Search engines first check title tags, headlines, and the first two paragraphs for keyword matches. Keywords are the cornerstone of every SEO campaign.
• Frequency of keywords:
The search engine checks how often a word appears on a page. The more frequently the word appears the more relevant is the site.
• Link popularity:
Increase in the relevant, external, qualified inbound links to other websites.
An SEO campaign can be broken down into 7 basic functions as shown in the table below:
1
Keyword Identification
The right keywords have to be identified
first. These are words related to the site
and ‘USED’ by surfers while finding your
service or product.
2
Competition Analysis
Here the websites ranking high for the
keywords selected are reviewed for their
link structure optimization method and
incoming links.
3
Page optimization
In this stage the website is thoroughly
optimized with meta tags, body text,
internal links.
4
Link building
Qualified incoming links are generated in
This step.
5
Submissions
The web pages are systematically submitted to various search engines and directories.
6
Analysis & Tweaking
The results are observed over a period of time depending on the rankings and traffic trends the website is tweaked up.
7
Reporting
Throughout the course of the optimization, web stats have to be observed and tactics have to be changed based on the traffic trends.
Facts about SEO:
• Web site optimization always involves aiming at a moving target and therefore must be an ongoing process rather than a finite project.
• Merely submitting the website is a small part of the larger process of Web site optimization. Website optimization consists of site design and layout, scientific research, determination of the best keyword phrases, monitoring rankings, algorithmic and industry changes and much more.
• Website optimization professional services firm must do web site optimization.
Benefits of SEO: PPC v/s SEOTRAFFIC AS CAMPAIGN PROGRESSESCOSTPPCSEO
• Long term visibility
Banner ads or paid search engine placement works for a while but once the market budget is depleted, the site disappears. Also consumers are more likely to purchase from a site ranked high in the search engine results than from an evidently placed advertisement.
• Familiarity with the company
A web site having a high ranking means more people see the name of the company and become familiar with the company and its products, even if they haven’t made a purchase. A survey by NPD shows that consumers are twice as likely to recognize businesses ranked in the top three in search engine results than those appearing in banner ads.
• Targeted traffic
Choosing the wrong keywords can be devastating to an SEO campaign. In many cases, the wrong theme words will produce good ranking but very poor traffic or the wrong type of traffic. Because these keywords are carefully selected the type of traffic generated is highly targeted.
• Affordability
In comparison to banner ads, which cost between $2500 to $35000 a month and outsourced SEO plan costs as little as $600.
It is because of these reasons that SEO provides a high ROI for most companies.
Web site maintenance:
A web site should always be thought of as a work in progress. Optimization work continues long after the optimized site is launched. This is mainly done because search engines are fickle. The most effective strategy is to change and adapt the site in response to what the new ranking criteria of the search engine appear to be. The various activities that are carried out in an SEO maintenance program are:
• Continuous rank monitoring and traffic trends observation
• Tweaking of the web pages to maintain the rank
• Comprehensive rank reporting to clients
Why CONVONIX?
Convonix is a young, dynamic firm. A firm where people collaborate, innovative ideas are exchanged and where the client is given topmost priority and his satisfaction is guaranteed. At Convonix, we specialize in SEO services & can boast of a 100% renewal rate with our clients. We set very high, but realistic goals and do not believe in misleading our clients that the optimized site will rank#1 in one day. SEO is a gradual process and at the end of the time frame agreed upon we guarantee results.
We assure you that at Convonix we use time tested and perfectly legal methods to optimize your website for different search engines. Our team of search engine optimization consultants and account managers are well versed with the intricacies of every major search engine.
We always try our best to surpass our client’s expectations because we believe in…
Under promise... Over deliver!!!

SEO Fundamentals

2009-03-06T01:28:00.000-08:00

Key Tips & Best Practices for
Search Engine Optimization

The process of Search Engine Optimization (SEO) has gained popularity in recent years as a
means to reach target audiences through improved web site positioning in search engines.
However, few have an understanding of the SEO methods employed in order to produce such
results. The following tips are some basic best practices to consider in optimizing your site for
improved search engine performance.

Identifying Target Search Terms
The first step to any SEO campaign is to identify the search terms (also referred to as key
terms, or key words) for which you want your site pages to be found in search engines – these
are the words that a prospective visitor might type into a search engine to find relevant web
sites. For example, if your organization’s mission has to do with environmental protection, are
your target visitors most likely to search for “acid rain”, “save the forests”, “toxic waste”,
“greenhouse effect”, or all of the above? Do you want to reach visitors who are local, regional
or national in scope? These are considerations that need careful attention as you begin the
SEO process. After all, it’s no use having a good search engine ranking for terms no one’s
looking for.
Your target terms should be at least two words in length and, of course, be relevant to the
content of your site pages. Your own intuition and team brainstorming are good places to start
with key term selection. However, there are tools designed to assist you in validating your
choices and researching search term possibilities you may have never even considered.
WordTracker and Overture offer two of the most popular such tools:
WordTracker (www.wordtracker.com) is the industry standard tool used for search term
selection research. Although there is a fee for using the full version of WordTracker,
they also offer limited trial where you can test out the system.
Yahoo Search Marketing (searchmarketing.yahoo.com/rc/srch/index.php) also offers a
"Keyword Selector Tool" that can be utilized for researching target search terms when
you sign up for a Pay-Per-Click (PPC) account with them.
By strategically selecting terms that are popular enough to bring you visibility with target
audiences, yet not so general/competitive that a prominent ranking will be difficult, you can
ensure that your SEO efforts are built on a stable foundation from the start.
We Have the Terms, Now What Do We Do With Them?
Once you have selected the search terms you want to target, the next step is to integrate the
terms into your site pages to make them relevant.
Selecting Pages for Optimization
Initially, the pages that you select for optimization should be those that offer the most focused
content relating to the terms you want to target – you may already have such pages on your
site, or you may need to develop them from scratch. You can optimize as many pages as you
like, but each page should focus on no more than one or two of your target terms.

SEO Article Copywriting

2009-03-05T19:48:00.000-08:00

Ghost Writing and Its Link to Internet Marketing
Presented By: Destinetics
LEGAL NOTICE
The Publisher has strived to be as accurate and complete as possible in the creation of this report,
notwithstanding the fact that he does not warrant or represent at any time that the contents within are
accurate due to the rapidly changing nature of the Internet.
While all attempts have been made to verify information provided in this publication, the Publisher
assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions, or contrary interpretation of the subject matter herein.
Any perceived slights of specific persons, peoples, or organizations are unintentional.
In practical advice books, like anything else in life, there are no guarantees of income made. Readers are
cautioned to reply on their own judgment about their individual circumstances to act accordingly.
This book is not intended for use as a source of legal, business, accounting or financial advice. All
readers are advised to seek services of competent professionals in legal, business, accounting, and
finance field.

You are encouraged to print this book for easy reading.
Introduction
The year 2000 not only symbolized the start of the 21st century. It was also
the time of the ‘dotcom bubble’ or what is commonly referred to as the
period of disappointment over the overrated and anticipated boom of the
information technology industry. The industry, well, quite boomed, but not
to the extent perceived and forecast.
At the height of the Internet bubble was the realization that the online media
needs further modifications. From about 1996 to the early 2000, the term
search engine optimization started to become a common industry phrase.
That is because Internet that time was rapidly increasing its popularity. The
online medium was also reshaping its own landscape.
The use of search engines proliferated. That has been due to the fact that
the number of global Websites shoot up robustly and the volume of
contents, both relevant and irrelevant, flooded the Internet. And boy, the
influx has been quite awesome and overwhelming! To be able to survive the
competition, Websites have to make sure the content of their sites are
appropriate and well accessed by numerous online users.
From 1996 to 2000, SEO copywriting was still not formulated. To optimize
Websites, operators and owners had just needed to formulate and create
Meta tags or titles and submit the tags and the whole Website to directories
and search engines so that search listing would include the Website. During
those years, the concern of SEO specialists was to make sure the search
engine ranking was high through visits from online users. It wasn’t
important whether the site actually made money or successfully sold items.
The advent of Internet marketing changed the overall landscape of the
Internet and of SEO rankings. From 2000 up to the present, search engine
rankings now depend on the actual number of usual visits of Websites, plus,
the effectiveness of such sites in selling products or calling readers and
consumers to action.
Now, Websites know and acknowledge the importance of keyword-rich
content. Copywriting now requires writers to follow keyword densities and
appropriate uses. That is because keywords dictate the overall effectiveness
and search engine rankings of specific SEO articles.
SEO article writing is also referred to as ghost writing. That is because the
actual and real writers of the SEO articles are not revealed. Unlike in usual
forms of writing, there is no by-line is SEO copywriting. The written output
would be considered as an intellectual property and legal ownership of the
Website to which the content is found and contained.
Internet businesses and merchandisers make use of the Internet as an
effective marketing venue by using Websites to directly sell products and
services. Usually, there are links and advertisements that are put in various
Websites so that online readers and intended clients would get to see the
ads and click on to make purchases or be redirected to the site of the
advertiser.
That is how Internet sites make prosperous amount of money online. I is
somehow exciting to establish your own Website or online business because
there is great possibility of income generation. If you know how to
appropriately strategize to make your SEO content effective and reliable, for
sure, you would be able to pull out a lot of income from your Internet
venture.
Once you fully understand the dynamics and concepts behind SEO article
writing and Internet marketing, for sure, you would be able to maximize the
existence of your Website or online business and use its potential to be able
to generate more revenues and open up more promising opportunities. In
fact, SEO techniques and writing make up the modern concept of Internet
marketing.
Understanding SEO
Search engine optimization is very crucial to Internet marketing. That is
because through SEO, Websites and contents are optimized so that link
popularity is established. Websites and online businesses should strive to get
higher search engine rankings so that more online users and prospective
clients would come their way.
There are many search engines that proliferate and dominate the Internet
search market nowadays. On top of the list is Google, which accounts for
more than half of overall Internet usage for search engines currently. Other
search engines are Yahoo, MSN and Altavista. If you are researching for a
certain subject or topic of interest, you certainly would need to use search
engines. Type the keywords pertinent to your inquiry and wait for a few
seconds before a complete listing of Websites and links are displayed on the
screen.
Note that with each search inquiry you make, there are hundreds or
sometimes even thousands of sites and links provided to you in search
results. The problem for you to face is to determine which of those links or
sites would appropriately and sufficiently provide you with all your required
and needed information. Studies in the past years have shown that naturally
and normally, search engine users tend to click the links or Websites that
are listed on top of the results page. Sometimes, those in the first page of
the results also get to enjoy the benefits of online user searches.
That is the works of search engine ranking. Search engines have their
respective ways of computing and determining search engine rankings, but
in general, higher volume of traffic dictates ranking, in all aspects. Thus, if
you are running a Website, you should strive so hard to make sure your
search engine ranking is high.
To do that, you have to make use of recommended and proven effective
SEO copywriting techniques. The content is very crucial in setting the search
engine ranking of your Website. Search engines categorize sites according to
frequencies of usage of definite and effective keywords. You see, search
engines have their own lists of commonly searched keywords when users
seek information for different subjects. You need to determine those
keywords and make sure your content would be rich and generous in the use
of those words or phrases.
Internet marketing comes in when you are selling products and services
through the Website. Of course, because there are more users, you would
have greater exposure and more people would be regularly visiting your site.
Advertisers would also note that fact and would start swooning to place their
ads on your Website. Of course, when there are ads put into your Webpage,
it follows that there would be income for you, especially if online users click
on the ads and make actual transactions via your Website.
However, to make all those would be possible, you have to make sure that
your Website is not only keyword-rich in terms of the content. Overall
packaging and presentation would also matter a lot. Good content is almost
always complemented by equally attractive and convenient Webpage layout
and design.
To demonstrate the usefulness of SEO writing, it would be helpful if you
would imagine this situation. Imagine that you are on the way to office to an
important make or break meeting when you suddenly spilled your coffee into
your suit. You need to purchase a new one to make sure you would still be in
good form and aesthetic appeal for the meeting. You go to a department
store, went to a shop and asked the assistance of a sales lady. Upon asking,
the sales person gave you brochures and materials. Looking at the content,
you cannot easily locate what you are looking for because the brochure is
too wordy and the content is having so many other subjects. You were
pissed off and went to another boutique, which has a salesperson that
immediately showed you coats when you asked for one.
You would naturally buy a coat from the second store. That is like SEO
copywriting. The articles are helpful and are direct to the point, saving you
all the time, effort and patience.
Helpful SEO tools

The overall effectiveness and use of search engine optimization articles do
not entirely depend on the content of the articles. While it is true that
interesting and comprehensible content of SEO articles is crucial, it is also
important that you take note of several special tools or complementary
features or aids that would help the SEO article live up to its purpose.
If you are a Website owner or operator, you surely would be in search for an
appropriate SEO tool that would surely and effectively help in optimizing the
overall content and package of the online site and in enticing or catching the
attention of online readers. Getting the right tool to complement or
accessorize the SEO is crucial and important and at the same time, should
be prioritized or given particular attention by the Website owner or operator.
If you are not yet fully aware and familiar about such tools, it would be
helpful if you would get to know the most commonly used and available SEO
tools. Here are the most common and easily accessible of them:
5. Keywords suggestion software
Before writing or producing the content to be put in the Website, you should
be aware that there are proper ways on formulating keywords. The idea
behind SEO is that content should be containing basic keywords that are
easily retrievable and searchable within the Internet. If you are covering a
certain topic or subject, it is important that you know which keywords online
users usually or often use when using the search engines for such subjects.
Currently, giant and leading search engine firm Google Inc. is offering a
feature or program that would specifically do the job described above.
AdWords has been launched by Google to serve specifically as a keywords
suggestion tool that SEO writers and Website owners should utilize initially
prior to producing the content. If you would use AdWords prior to
outsourcing or producing the content you would post in your Website, you
would be given more direction into the task. Your efforts would not be put in
futile because you are certain you are working on the right and effective
keywords.
6. Link popularity checker
Traffic dictates the overall effectiveness and profitability of a Website. The
more users the Webpage attracts and engage, the more lucrative the site
gets. That is because advertisers, which abound across the Internet, would
naturally and logically aim to place their investments at the right sites, or
those WebPages’ where they could easily and more possibly tap potential
customers. It is like television advertising, where advertisers would
practically place ads on TV shows that have high ratings or viewership.
There are many online businesses that are offering such popularity checking
features. It is advised that you employ such services so that you would be
able to determine how many online users are actually using or reading your
site, and how your Website is faring competitively against many rivals and
competitors, which are out always to outpace you and get the online user
attention every online business is aiming to have.
7. Site report card
This tool is essential especially if you are still out to launch the Website. Prior
to the launch or roll out of your Website, you should make sure that your
site would be able to monitor itself and be checked about all necessary
information. In printing, this activity is more like editing or proofreading
before the actual printing and distribution of copies.
The site report card would help you generate information about your
Website, like analysis of keywords, usability and effectiveness of keywords
and so on. You could also check if your content has typographic mistakes of
if there would be a link failure, which you should ultimately prevent from
happening.
Effective SEO techniques
Internet marketing is not a complicated concept. Just like traditional
marketing, it could be made easier and more effective if you would have the
necessary knowledge and skills. If you thought good and effective writing of
search engine optimization articles to be posted for your Website is enough,
you should reconsider your beliefs.
Coming up with good and optimized content is sure one way of optimizing
your Website so that Internet users would have more and easier access to it.
You should be reminded that traffic matters in the world of Internet
marketing. The more frequent users and visitors that regularly visit your
Website, the more your online business is getting lucrative and highly
profitable. Online advertisers sure know that if your Website is frequently
visited, there are greater chances that their ads posted within the Webpage
would get noticed by targeted readers or potential customers. Hence, your
online income from the maintaining the site would be more significant.
There are several effective techniques that you could do to optimize or
improve the potential profitability of your Website. Follow these simple
techniques, which may seem like recommendations to you, to ensure that
your Website would be more effective in its goals of luring more regular
users and potential clients for you and your advertisers.
8. Register or submit the content of your Website to as many directories
as possible. If you would be able to submit it to search engines, it
would also be good, though when your Webpage is activated and
visited by users, it would automatically be included in the list results
from search engine searches. There are several specialized software in
the market that would help you regularly submit content and Websites
to as many other sites and online businesses possible. Ensure that
your Website is properly indexed by giant and popular search engines
like Google, Yahoo and MSN.
9. Of course, it would count a lot of you would make your Website as
unique and interesting as possible. Being different is often helping
invigorate curiosity and patronage among online readers. Good,
reliable, informative and comprehensible content would help a lot in
making sure online readers would keep on coming back to the
Website. Word of mouth would result, making up for a better and
more effective advertising.
10. Create reciprocal links with other Websites. Online businesses,
though there is intense competition, is facilitating for healthy coexistence
and cooperation. In building reciprocal links, you would be
agreeing to post ads and links of other Websites. In turn, your ads and
links would be posted in theirs. Regularly check out if your links are
well placed and posted in your partner sites.
11. Develop a site map for your Website. Site maps are like table of
contents that are placed on top of the page or above the entire
content. The map contains the basic content of your site and will make
it easier for online users to navigate and roam around within your
Website.
12. Of course, the best and topmost effective technique in optimizing
your Website is through making the content reliable and worth
reading. It is true that the Internet contains all the basic information
people would need. Because it is wide and easily utilized by all sorts of
people and Website developers, expect that there are too many
contents that are false and are not worth reading. Make sure the
content of your Website do not fall within that category.
If your Website is good enough, there would be word of mouth to be started
by satisfied readers. The popularity of your site would rise and more people
would check it out. If there is satisfaction among readers, they surely would
keep on coming back for more, in which case, you may need to regularly
update your site.
Strategic SEO rules
There are many search engines that are operating in the Internet. For sure,
when doing your own searches, you are using the services of the search
engine, which you think is highly reliable based on your experiences. When
you search for data, information and content online, you do not directly type
and guess Website addresses. The usual activity is that you type keywords
or the main subject of your search in the dialog boxes of search engines.
Within seconds, you would be provided with numerous addresses and links
to Websites that are likely to contain what you are looking for.
If you are running and operating a Website that should be your basic aim: to
make sure searchers and online users would easily find you when they do
search engine searches. There are three major search engines that matter
today, namely, Google, Yahoo and MSN. These search engines have their
own standards and practices in determining search engine rankings of
Websites, which would dictate and determine if a Website would be placed at
the first page or on top of the list in the first page.
Many Websites are dying to be on the top of the list, or at least listed on the
first page of search results. That is because studies have shown that
Websites on top of the lists are more likely to lure online users. The page
listing also indicates the popularity of Websites. Those in the top of the lists
are definitely and logically those that are browsed and visited more often.
You need strategies if you want to ensure the search engine optimization of
your Website. Do not fret because it would not cost you much or require you
too tedious tasks to optimize or boost the popularity of your Website. Here
are three basic rules that would help you strategize in this endeavor.
13. Pay attention to the layout of your Website. When developing
your own Webpage meant for profits, be sure to make the site as
interesting as possible. Before looking at the content, be sure you are
working for an effective, creative and useful page layout for your site.
You see, online users get stressed when layouts of Websites are too
disorganized or poorly designed. Imagine yourself reading a
broadsheet. Notice that if the layout of the pages is too compressed
and boring, you tend to dread reading the content. In the end, you
throw the broadsheet and find for others that would be kinder to your
eyes and would be easier to navigate and read. That is also the case
for Websites. If users find your site too compressed and too tight to
the eyesight, chances are that they would discontinue reading or
checking your Website out.
14. Sprinkle the entire content of the Website with the basic and
optimized keywords relevant to the topic or the theme of your
Website. It would be advisable that before you write SEO articles or
hire others to do so, you have a list of keywords that should be
emphasized and made visible throughout your Website. Otherwise,
your site would not be getting the aimed page ranking and usability
you desire. Be reminded, however, to make your content interesting
and informative, aside from being keyword-rich.
15. Establish links with other Websites. You could coordinate with
other Websites that also have the same theme as yours. You could
build links by having their sites and links in your site, and in exchange,
your links would be posted and contained in their Websites. Often, link
building helps Websites be indexed by search engines. The more links
your site develops, the more popular it could get, and the higher its
online search ranking could get. Be cautious though in choosing
Websites that you would establish links with. If a Website is banned in
search engines for absurd and offensive content, you might also get
the same ban if you would develop links with that prohibited site.
Tips for better SEO writing
If you aim to hit it big in Internet marketing, you should start by ensuring
that your Website is effective and appealing to online users. Your Webpage
is truly and practically the best and most effective marketing tool you would
ever have. That is why you have to make sure that your site is equipped
with relevant and effective information within a content that is appropriately
formulated and written to cater to various types of target online users.
To help you make sure your Website is fully and effectively optimized, it
would be ideal if you would pay particular attention to the content you are
posting. Remember that the content is the gist and soul of your Website and
it is what search engines and readers would read. The Website could never
stand to itself if there is no accompanying words or articles that would keep
online visitors glued and attuned.
Here are several guidelines on how you could ensure the quality and
effectiveness of your search engine optimization articles.
16. Compose effective headings and taglines. You should pay
attention to taglines because they catch the attention in search
engines. Significant points and content of the Website are emphasized
through the use of effective taglines. The headings, on the other hand,
are titles that make people read the content more. Weak taglines and
headings almost always make the overall effect and impact of the SEO
article futile.
17. When doing the SEO articles, consider the expertise of your
Website. Write according to how you want your Website to be
categorized and used in the market. Search engines surely would
categorize your Website according to its expertise, so make sure the
content of the site is appropriate and inline with what people would
expect from the site.
18. When writing SEO articles, strive to create strong lead sentences
and paragraphs. The fist sentence of every composition is the most
crucial because it is the start, the part which readers always look at
first. If the beginning of the article is weak, then chances are that the
readers would not stick out to read the entire piece. In turn, the
reader would continue on the search process and check out other
Websites to seek for the information he or she needs.
19. Keep the target readers in mind when writing the article.
Remember that the Internet is free-flowing and is a very broad
medium. There are too many Internet sites from all across the globe
and the demographics of the online users is also wide and significantly
varied. To be effective, strive not to cater to all the online users.
Instead, decide on the specific and particular profile and demographics
of online readers you intend the content for. This way, your writing
would be more effective. For example, if you aim to please and inform
kids, make your SEO copies kid-friendly and very simple. Do not try to
please the parents by including jargons and technical information. If
you do, the kids would be turned off and find for some other Website
for them.
20. Make your SEO copy as attractive and as enticing as possible. If
you know your intended readers well, you surely would be able to
relate to them. Understanding their needs and preferences would help
you write an article that would most likely please and relate to them.
Try to touch on the readers’ emotions and for sure, you would
instantly make that well-needed connection.
21. Be assertive and call the readers to action. If you are selling a
product, be direct to the point in asking readers to buy or patronize
the product. Emphasize what you want readers to do upon reading
your article.
Above all, remember that SEO writing is like general business writing. Be
simple and be utterly frank or direct to the point. Online readers’
attention is hard to keep so make sure your Website would establish an
impression instantly upon first encounter.
How to create effective SEO titles
Back in elementary and in college, you were taught in school that to be able
to make a written output effective and excellent, you first have to make sure
the title is attention-catching. That principle is very much applicable to
search engine optimization writing. If you notice, you would also be more
inclined to read an online article if you find the title engaging and
informative enough. Otherwise, you would just drift away and find for some
other articles at other Websites.
You need to make the title as engaging and as informative as ever. As a
writer, you should strive to do that because you know the overall quality of
the content would be put to waste if the accompanying title fails to
summarize and represent what the article is all about. To be able to do such
a sensitive and important task, it would be helpful if you would take note of
the following simple guidelines.
22. Utilize appropriate and effective keywords. Keywords are given
particular attention when writing for optimization. That is because
search engines recognize and detect the keywords used in articles.
Those keywords help search engines categorize the content of the
article. In turn, online users would find it easier to retrieve and find
your article or the content of your Website. You could try using
Google’s AdWord to get the relevant and the often used keywords in
online searches for the subject or theme of your Website. If you
sprinkle your content with the right amount of recommended and
effective keywords, expect that online views and readership would
shoot up, and in turn, online page ranking would be greatly boosted,
to the benefit of your Website.
23. Compose your SEO title very carefully. Spend enough time
creating the appropriate title for the SEO article. After knowing and
deciding on which keywords to properly use in the title, the next and
more important challenge would be to arrange such keywords in order
to formulate a phrase or simple sentence that would effectively serve
as your article’s title. Give emphasis to the most important keyword by
using it primarily and first in the title, to be followed by the other or
supporting keywords.
24. Keep the title as short and as simple as possible. Titles need not
be long to be effective and attention-catching. On the contrary, article
titles more effectively render information and solicit attention if they
are short. Say goodbye to long titles because they are not really
effective as long as SEO writing is concerned.
25. Do not mislead using the SEO title. Many Websites fall to the
mistake of making the title truly catchy and interesting, when in turn,
the content or overall message of the article body does not cover or
represent the title. That practice is a form of misreading. Readers
would be linked and directed to your site in hopes that they would get
content as promised in the title. If you do this, your Website would
have the reputation of misleading the public just to lure online users
and readers, a practice that soon urges users to punish the site by not
visiting it again.
26. Strive to be different. Uniqueness helps online sites entice more
users. Online visitors are almost always bored because there are
millions of different Websites. They would tend to stick out to sites
that contain very interesting titles, above all. The title almost always
gives it all. If the title is cutting and edge and is exciting, for sure,
more visitors would log in to read the whole of the article.
No one can underestimate the value of titles to SEO articles. To ensure that
your effort in making the whole of the content or article would never fall
futile, be sure to make or compose the best titles you could think about and
come out with.
In-house and outsourced SEO
Search engine optimization is identified as the most effective and necessary
strategy for Internet marketing. If you are running a Website, or if you are
planning to roll out one, you should decide and strive to make your online
presence as searchable and as informative as ever.
There are too many Websites already operating in the Internet. Your utmost
aim and target should be how to effectively win the interest and patronage
of online users. Fortunately, there are measures on how you could ensure
that your online content is made perfect and effective for your intended
purpose.
For your Website to operate and survive, you should create and post
worthwhile and highly informative articles. SEO articles would help you carry
out your tasks and aims of reaching out to your intended readers and
customers. You could decide to write your own articles for the perusal of
your very own Website. Or ultimately, you could decide to hire professional
writers to do the job for you. If you are a skilled and talented writer, you
should have the confidence to write your own content because you would
understand your own needs and preferences when it comes to your own site.
If you think you are not effective enough to be a good writer, you should
consider seeking the help and outputs of other writers.
In-house SEO writing is widely practiced. In this setup, the Website operator
writes the articles himself or hires a person to do so. The writer would be in
the direct hire of the Website, and he would be tasked to take care of the
content requirements and needs of the Website. When your Website is
keeping an in-house pool of SEO writer or writers, you should always
monitor the quality and standards and the diligence of the writers. Failure to
do so would endanger and possibly compromise the effectiveness and
reliability of your site.
Many Website owners and experts assert that SEO outsourcing is far better
than keeping an in-house pool of SEO specialists or writers. Through the
process of outsourcing, you could take the option of hiring individual writers
or freelancers or hiring an SEO specialization company to handle the job.
It has been clear that many Websites prefer to hire the services of SEO firms
because doing so would ensure that requirements would be met as well as
the deadlines. It is assumed that in SEO companies, there is a team of
writers that are producing and contributing outputs. Thus, even if the article
need is quite urgent or abrupt, SEO firms would more likely be able to meet
deadlines and render the needed quality of outputs.
Hiring SEO companies as outsourcers for the content would also help lessen
or reduce the stress you could incur in developing and maintaining your
Webpage. You would not worry about your daily requirements and needs for
articles anymore. The SEO company would take care of that. There are too
many SEO firms that that are operating across the Internet media so you
can be sure that there is intense competition. Thus, you would find that it
would be to your advantage since you would have a wider selection of firms
to choose from.
As for pricing, it is true that comparatively, asking prices of hired SEO firms
would be more significant. If you hire individual writers or if you decide to
write the outputs for yourself, you would constantly be bogged by worries
over whether you would be able to meet targets on time and in quality.
Those worries are eliminated completely once you decide to hire SEO firms.
Introduction to Internet marketing
Traditional marketing has been made more effective, interesting and modern
with the advent and popularity of Internet marketing. Internet marketing is
the process in which products and services are marketed via the online
medium.
Internet marketing rides on the overall popularity of the Internet. Nowadays,
you know that almost every important transaction is coursed through the
online medium. People used to just search around the Internet for research
information and education until the medium facilitated the conveyance of
entertainment. Now, the Internet is a venue where online shopping sites are
operating. You could also actually do banking transactions and money
transfers online.
The most important and innovative function of the Internet to consumers is
its facilitation of online purchases. Now almost all items are sold and bought
via online sites. There are special Websites that act as online shopping and
auctioneering sites. As for payment modes, electronic purchases or
transferring of funds is taking effect. That is through the use of credit cards.
All online marketing transactions are conducted and funded using credit
cards.
If your Website is not directly selling products and services, you could still
have your share in facilitating purchases. Links can be established in your
site that would enable the user or visitor to be redirected to the specific
Website selling the product. Through that established link, you could actually
generate income. Depending on advertising and link building agreements,
you could also generate income just be keeping the link or making sure your
online visitors would click on the links.
As discussed in the preceding sections, Internet marketing is heavily reliant
on the search engine ranking of a Website. Search engine ranking indicate
the popularity and usefulness of a Website. If the ranking is high, the
Website surely has its own following already, or is regularly checked out or
visited by online users. Thus, advertisers would prefer to establish links or
place ads in Websites with high search engine ranking.
In turn, to boost search engine ranking, you need to spice up your Website
and make sure specific and useful keywords are generously used throughout
the content. Voluminous use of pertinent keywords would enable your
Website to be listed on top of search result pages for the keywords.
However, do not compromise quality of content just to make sure keywords
are well sprinkled throughout the site.
To be able to make regular clients and users out of your online visitors,
regularly update the Website. Offer new and exciting things and be
informative, accurate and reliable as possible. If your credibility as a Website
is established, for sure, there would be word or mouth about the perks of
your site. In turn, there would be more opportunities for generating
revenues for you. And that would all boil down to, what else, money, money,
money!
SEOs an the pay-per-click strategy
You surely would have heard about pay-per-click or PPC advertising. If you
have been operating and maintaining your Website for quite some time, it is
imperative that you know about the dynamics and nature of PPC. There are
just a few means on how advertising is carried out across the Internet and
PPC clearly sets the modern standards in such ad strategies.
So you have your Website and you are aiming to generate income or make
the Webpage a means of ensuring a steady cash flow. You know that you
need to boost and further improve the overall quality of your online site. If
you are successful I doing so, you would surely monitor to see that your
overall search engine ranking has been high. That means, more online users
are regularly visiting your site, and there is a greater possibility that there
would still be further growth.
There are numerous researches that have established that high search
engine ranking really works in ensuring that more online users would get to
utilize and regularly visit the site. If that is the case, you know that online
advertisers flock around those Websites with very high search engine
rankings.
Ad placements are the usual source of income for television and print media.
Now, advertisers are starting to prioritize those media less and are starting
to shift focus towards the Internet. When placing online ads, advertisers
usually employ the PPC strategy.
To make use of PPC, the online user would automatically be redirected to the
Website of the advertiser upon a mouse click. Once the online user gets
there, the advertiser would then make sure the prospective client is well
informed about products, services and overall offerings of the site. Relying
on persuasion, the advertiser’s site would make sure the online client makes
the purchase. If that happens, there would be a commission to be given to
your Website for facilitating the link between the Website and the customer.
That is how modern online ads work nowadays. PPC facilitates for a more
convenient and accurate means of computing and determining ad rates and
impositions. Online advertising is now made more systematized and fair. No
party would ever complain about different or varying ad rates.
To be able to help persuade online users to click on the PPC icon within your
Webpage, it would be helpful if your content would set the mood. This will
boil again to ensuring that your Website is as effective and reliable a source
of information and pertinent data. The ads should also be inline with the
overall theme of your Website.
Indeed, SEOs are truly helpful. The Internet’s overall usefulness and
effectiveness is really boosted with the use of such strategies as the PPC and
other income generating tools and measures. The next time you run a
search engine activity, observe and you would surely understand more the
workings and advantage of SEO for an effective and lucrative Internet
marketing.

Smart Pricing And What It Means For Your Income

2009-02-26T02:20:00.000-08:00

One of the more difficult aspects of using AdSense is keeping up to date with changes that Google likes to introduce from time to time. Most of these changes are pretty minor. That doesn’t mean that you can ignore them — you will need to be aware of them. But you won’t usually have to make massive changes to your site and the way you’ve optimized your ads when Google adjusts its policy.
One change that did have a dramatic effect on publishers took place in April, 2004: Google introduced Smart Pricing. We’ve already felt some of its effects in this book. Now we’re going to explain exactly what it means...
First, let me just say that Smart Pricing was a pretty smart move, especially for advertisers. The principle is simple: before Smart Pricing, advertisers paid the price they had bid for each click their ad received on a website... regardless of whether that click resulted in a sale. The result was that some advertisers were receiving large numbers of clicks — for which they were paying large sums of money — but were seeing only a low return on that investment (ROI).
Not surprisingly, they were drifting away to other ad distributors, particularly Yahoo!, in the search for visitors who wouldn’t just click but buy too.
To improve advertisers’ ROI (and win them back from Yahoo!), Google lowered the price of ads on sites that tend to give advertisers few sales, even if they give them large numbers of clicks.

To put it another way, the same ad can now cost different amounts when it appears on different sites. And of course, that same ad will pay publishers different amounts too.
Before Smart Pricing, publishers had focused solely on attracting as many clicks as possible. With Smart Pricing, a site with a high CTR can still earn less than a site with a low CTR.
So how does Google measure an advertiser’s conversion rate and what can publishers do to increase their conversion rates to ensure their ad rates remain high?
This is where things get tricky. Google is playing its cards pretty close to its chest when it comes to the methods it uses to calculate Smart Pricing and even measure ROI.
13.1 What Google Has Said About Smart Pricing

This is what Google has officially told us about Smart Pricing:
The price of an ad is influenced by a number of differentfactors.

Those factors can include: the bid price; the quality of the ad; competition from other ads in the same field; the location of the ad as part of a marketing campaign; “and other advertiser fluctuations.”
The ad price is not affected by the clickthrough rate.

Sending advertisers large numbers of clicks will not increase the bid price. (That doesn’t mean that CTR isn’t important at all for your revenues; it’s just not important in determining the amount you receive for the click.)
“Content Is King.”

Google makes it pretty clear that sites that will benefit most from AdSense are those that “create compelling content for interested users.” They also emphasize the importance of bringing targeted traffic to look at that content. Those are two different factors which together create a site with loyal, appreciative users. Just the sort of thing that every serious webmaster wants.
13.2 What Else Do We Know About Smart Pricing?

What Google has told us about Smart Pricing isn’t much. It also raises at least as many questions as it answers: How does Google judge the quality of an ad? How can they tell the role an ad plays in a marketing campaign? What

are the other “advertiser fluctuations”? And perhaps most importantly, how do they track the results of the clicks?
All of those pieces of information would be very useful to a publisher. But Google wasn’t letting on.
Fortunately, publishers caught a break. Jennifer Sleg, the author of an excellent contextual advertising blog at www.Jensense.com, (you should definitely make this site a part of your regular reading) was contacted by an advertiser who was being tempted back from Yahoo! to Google. He told Jen what the AdSense salesman had told him about Smart Pricing. She told us.
This is what it boiled down to:
Smart Pricing is calculated across an AdSense account.

So if you have a number of different sites covering a range of different topics and one of them delivers a low ROI, all of your ad prices may be lowered.
Smart Pricing is evaluated weekly.

If you believe that an ad is delivering a low ROI, you can remove it from your site and you should see higher ad prices within a week.
Smart pricing is tracked with a 30-day cookie.

Users don’t have to convert immediately into a sale (or whatever will count as a conversion) for you to benefit. They can think about it for a month and you’ll still get the benefit.
Image ads are affected by smart pricing.

Few serious publishers use image ads except when they’re receiving CPM campaigns. Was this a reference to ads in low locations receiving lower rates?
Prices may be reduced even below an advertiser’s minimum bid.

So looking up the bid prices for targeted keywords won’t help you very much; if your ROI is low, your rates could be lower than the minimum quoted.
Conversions accounts are tracked by advertisers opting into AdWords Conversion Tracking.

But we still don’t know what Google is tracking or how it’s makingcalculations with its results.

13.3 Strategies To Benefit From Smart Pricing

The challenge for publishers trying to keep their ad rates high is that there’s no way to know exactly how many of your clicks are converting into sales for your advertisers. You can’t even tell what would count as a sale for the different advertisers you’re promoting.
The best you can do is keep track of your clicks and your revenues, and make sure that they rise and fall at the same rates.
If following your stats was always important, Smart Pricing has made it absolutely vital. There’s little point in spending hours trying to increase your CTR if the value of your clicks is dropping like a rock.
So what should you do if you notice that your income is dropping but your CTR rate remains the same?
The first thing you should do is protect yourself. Because one site with a low ROI can affect all the sites in your account, dividing your sites between different accounts would prevent all of your revenues falling if one site underperforms. Officially, that’s a breach of TOS, so you can’t really do it But I don’t see why two different sites can’t be owned by two spouses. If you own more than two sites though... well, I guess you’re stuck.
Next, if you suspect that one page has a low ROI, try removing the AdSense code from that page, wait a week and see if you can spot an improvement in your ad prices. If there’s no improvement, replace the code and try taking the code from a different page. You want to find the page that’s poisoning your earnings and keep AdSense ads off it until you can bring in the kind of traffic that suits your advertisers.
And that’s where you’re most likely to find the underperforming pages. The pages that are most likely to have the greatest conversion rates for advertisers are those that have the most loyal following. The closer the connection between your site and the interests of your visitors the more likely they are to click on your ads — and buy when they click.
So it’s also a good idea to create niche sites that appeal to niche audiences, rather than general sites that bring in audiences interested in a bunch of different things. Those sorts of users will also only have a vague interest in some of the things on your site and could lower your conversion rate.
You might have a blog, for example, in which you discussed your interests in... oh, dogs, computer games and the movies of Mel Gibson. That would bring in users with three different kinds of interests... and three different kinds of ads. But a dog-loving user who clicks on an ad for Mel Gibson DVDs

is less likely to actually buy than a Mel Gibson fan. Your conversion rate would drop and the value of every ad you promote would fall too.
But if you created three separate blogs, one for each of your interests, you would receive fewer false clicks, and a higher rate of conversion.
Ultimately then, the ideal strategy is, as always, to create good content that attracts genuinely interested users.
Don’t remove the AdSense code from pages with low CTR; remove it from pages with low ROI!

Using Multiple Ad Blocks

2009-02-25T08:07:00.000-08:00

Google lets you place more than one ad unit on each page of your Web site. In fact, you can place:
3 ad units3 link units3 referral units2 AdSense for search boxes
What does this mean for web publishers?
A real bonanza: you now have many more chances to hook readers with new ads as Google will show unique ads in each ad unit!
With multiple ad blocks, you can also decide which ads are served in the best places for your site.
10.1 How Many Ads Is Too Many?

In general, I recommend that you put as many AdSense units on your page as possible. The more choices you give your users, the more likely they are to click.
The only caveat to this is ad-blindness. Put lots of ads on your site and users are just going to ignore them. And when they ignore one unit, they’re likely to ignore them all.

This can be more of a problem for small Web pages than for larger pages such as those on blogs. On a short page, all those different ads can quickly outweigh the content; on a long page, you can scatter them about so that they’re less likely to get in the way of a user’s reading.
One great solution is to have a long home page with lots of ads but which contains only the headlines and the first paragraph or so from each article. To read more, the user has to click to a page with just that one article.
That page would have fewer units. But because those units would be influenced by just one article, the ads would be better targeted.
10.2 What To Do With Three Ad Units

The actual number of ads that you’ll choose will depend on the design of your site. But considering the range of different formats, you should find it pretty easy to squeeze in at least two ad units and usually three.
Most sites for example, have room for a leaderboard (although you should also experiment with a link unit to see which of the two in that position gives you the best results).
It’s also not too difficult to insert a rectangular unit into an article. You can do that with just about any article.
That’s two units already.
The final unit, a button or vertical banner, could do very well in a sidebar.
Most people choose to keep the ads far apart, but you can also have some pretty dramatic effects by putting your ad units together. This isn’t a strategy that’s going to work for everyone, but creating a zone — at the top of your page maybe or between blog entries — can really make those ads look like content.
After all, users are used to seeing ads in single blocks. When they see a whole section of the page given over to ads, there’s a good chance they’ll assume it’s content and give it some extra attention.
10.3 Where To Put The Search Boxes

The search boxes are usually easier. Probably the most popular place for these is one of the top corners or in the side bar.
You could try putting the second one at the bottom of the page if you want to give users somewhere to go when they’ve finished reading, but to be frank, I doubt if you’ll make any more money with a search box down there than you would from the one at the top.
They’re a good way to capture revenue from users who don’t click on the ads and are about to leave, but I don’t think that putting two search boxes on a page is going to give you more income than one. It’s possible and you can try it. But I wouldn’t expect any massive results.
10.4 Google Is Generous With The Link Units

Two search boxes might not make much of a difference, but I think that three link units might. They’re small enough to squeeze into all sorts of spots and they look so good at the top and bottom of a list of links that you could probably have fun with three of them.
You do want to be careful about not overloading your page with so many ads that users stop seeing them, so if you don’t have space for all three use just one or two.
And because link units look very different to ad units, I don’t think you have to worry too much about them competing for clicks — and ending up with nothing. They go very well with other ad units.
10.5 Put Referral Ads Near The Recommendation

Referrals work will in all sorts of places. The old Google product referral buttons were most eye-catching when kept together. The new product referrals can work in sidebars but you’ll probably get the best result when you put them close to a recommendation in the text.
10.6 Putting It All Together

Deciding where to put one ad can often be difficult. There are so many different options. Get it wrong and it will cost you money.
While having multiple ads lets you tempt users wherever they are on the page, it also compounds the problem. What’s the best combination of ads and where should the different ads go?

Experimentation and close tracking is the only real way to know for your site but you have to start somewhere. I’ve put three suggested starting points below. These aren’t meant to be final versions that will yield you the greatest income. They’re just meant to get you started quickly. You can then try swapping the locations of different units and see how those changes affect your CTR.
10.7 Putting Multiple Ads In Articles
Fig. 10.1 Distributing multiple ads on an article Web page.
On a Web page that features just one article, you could place a leaderboard beneath the navigation bar, a rectangular ad unit embedded at the beginning of the article and a link unit in a list of links in the left-hand sidebar.
On the right, you could place a search box, another link list (perhaps to archives, RSS content or news) followed by a link unit, and you could put a referral ad inside the text either as an image ad or a text link.
You could also try a second search box at the bottom of the page.
Possible alternatives to try:
Swapping the leaderboard or the second search box for a link unit;
Replacing the link unit on the left with a vertical banner;

Placing a half-banner at the end of the article instead of the second search box;
Moving the link unit on the left to the top of the sidebar;
Using a skyscraper on the right instead of a link unit;
Or just taking out some of the ads to see if that brings in more clicks.
10.8 Putting Multiple Ads In Blogs

Fig. 10.2 Distributing multiple ads on a blog.
The best places to put ads on a blog is between the blog entries. Link units would probably be ideal here... but you’ve only got one of them. Instead, you could start with a half-banner or even a full banner and use a link unit in between two of the blog entries.
A search button can be placed at the top of a sidebar on the right with a skyscraper blended into the second of two lists of links, and a second link unit between them. Again the referral unit can be placed inside one of the blog posts if the teaser is long enough.
Possible alternatives to try:
Swapping the link unit for another ad unit and using a link unit in place of the skyscraper;

Using banners instead of half-banners;
Embedding a rectangular ad unit into the text of the blog;
Placing ad units next to photos in the blogs;
Putting a referral ad in the sidebar;
Adding an extra search box to the bottom of the right-hand sidebar.
10.9 Putting Multiple Ads In Merchant Sites
Fig. 10.3 Distributing multiple ads on a merchant site.
There are really two approaches you can take to using AdSense on merchant sites. The first is simply to treat them in the same way as blogs: put a link at the end of each section of advertising copy and place a banner or half banner beneath it. That ad unit should blend into the text above and below. You can use a skyscraper on the edge of the screen, a link unit beneath a list of navigation links, a search box at the top of the page and referral ads on the side.
Alternatively, you could use graphic referral ads as images and write text about the products. That would give you an instant online store!

In the sample layout above, I’ve placed a large rectangular ad unit directly beneath a featured product. The feature would create the most attention and users would have read past it to reach the rest of the page.
Whenever you’re using AdSense on merchant sites though do keep a close eye on the ads you’re serving; you don’t want to advertise your competitors!
Possible alternatives to try:
Using a text link instead one of the ad units between the marketing copy;
Placing a large picture of a product on a page... and an ad unit right next to it;
Using banners instead of half-banners;
Placing a leaderboard either at the top of the page or at the bottom;
Separating each piece of marketing copy with a large square unit.

And if you’re worried you’ve put in too many ad units... just take one out and see if your CTR changes.
10.10 Ordering Your Ads

These strategies make for useful default placements. But there’s one more factor that you should consider when you’re planning your ads: the way that Google distributes ads to multiple units on a page.
The first ad unit to appear on a Web page always shows the ads that placed the highest bids. In other words, the higher an ad appears on a page, the more that ad is worth.
Because ads that are above the fold tend to get more clicks than those lower down the page, you won’t usually have to do a thing to make sure that the ads that receive the most clicks are those that pay the most.
If your Channels do show you that an ad unit at the bottom of the page is picking up more clicks than ad unit at the top of the page though, you might want try moving that unit to a higher position.
Frankly, I doubt that’s going to happen very often. A bigger problem is if you’ve placed your ad units inside DIV tags, tables or other positioning codes. As far as AdSense is concerned, the first ad unit is the first one the robot comes across in the HTML code, even if that HTML code places the unit at the bottom of the page.

When you place multiple ad units on a Web page then, it’s important to make sure that the AdSense codes appear in your HTML in the same order that they appear on your Web page. That should ensure that the ad units with the highest clickthrough rates are always the ones with the highest value ads.